Solak

Nate Johnson‏Verified account @nsj 2m2 minutes ago 6:50pm: Debris signature on radar / suggests tornado was/is on the ground and enough to kick up debris. Would be rain-wrapped. Go inside and get low!

At 645 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located 8 miles southwest of Fuquay-Varina, or 10 miles northwest of Lillington, moving northeast at 30 mph.

After the current band of storms passes through... This HWO is for most of the RAH forecast area. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. There is a threat for a few strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through early evening. The primary severe weather threat will be locally strong to damaging wind gusts and large hail. A weak tornado cannot be ruled out. A cold front approaching from the west late Sunday into Sunday night will be accompanied by a band of thunderstorms, some of which may be severe. The main severe weather threats will be damaging wind gusts, large hail and possibly a weak tornado.

Under our first severe warning of the year. Hearing some boomers out there. Hard to believe that 6 days ago it was only 37 degrees out! 81/64 currently.

NWS Raleigh‏Verified account @NWSRaleigh 2m2 minutes ago Latest update from @NWSSPC has upgraded portions of our forecast area (including the #Triad of #NCwx) to an ENHANCED RISK (3 of 5) for Severe Weather this evening. The forecast on timing remains the same, but the risk for damaging straight-line winds is increasing.

RAH: 10:50AM Some caveats to this set-up will be: a.) low stratus deck this morning is inhibiting heating. If this low cloud deck is slow to dissipate, this will inhibit heating later this afternoon, resulting in lower than expected available instability; b.) 12Z GSO sounding depicts a rather thick layer of warm air between 850-700mb. Model projections suggest this layer becoming cooler late this afternoon with the approach of the mid level perturbation. If this fails to materialize, the presence of this warm layer will inhibit convection depth/development; c.) lack of a low level boundary to focus convection and enhance low level shear/helicity.

NWS Eastern Region‏Verified account @NWSEastern 53s54 seconds ago Potential for severe thunderstorms today & tonight across parts of the Southeast & southern mid Atlantic regions. Damaging wind gusts % large hail are the primary threats, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible, as well as torrential downpours producing localized flooding.

First Hummingbird of 2019 at the feeder today!

Welcome to DST, that time of year when the models runs are an hour different for the next 7+ months

Love all the current snow/sleet observations in the mid-long term thread.

15 hours without a post in the SE Forum is pretty telling... unless everyone is on double secret probation or something.

Well, the Daytona 500 is finally over. Now the NASCAR season can begin!

If you add up all the percentages of rain for the next week, we have like a 740% chance of rain!!!

Glenn Burns... going out on a limb! Next weekend into early next week you all need to stay tuned. Big time cold air and snow would be likely. Cannot say where or how much yet. We will not know that until the day before, as always. Right now it looks like the precip moves in first and THEN the cold air. Not ideal conditions for a big snow storm. It’s more like the air gets colder AFTER the big event and then the colder air squeezes out what moisture remains. Time will tell. Too early to be any more specific.

Happy New Year, gang!

Quite a bit different from the 'standard' GFS for the same time.

Out at the beach... As of 1245 PM Sun...Updated to increase winds later today and esp this evening, as low pres now centered near Charleston races NE and up the NC coast this evening. The low will quickly deepen as it feeds off the warm Gulf Stream waters, with most models indicating 15mb per 12hr pres falls as it exits off the OBX. Have upgraded OBX zones to a high wind warning as could see some gusts to 60 mph this evening. Otherwise, breezy and wet conditions across E NC with large area of stratiform rain continuing to move through the region.

RAH Disco: Snow/Ice amounts: Only a slight change in forecast snow amounts with the heavy wet snowfall axis of 8 to 12 inches expected to along and north of I-85, with the predominate p-type expected to fall as mainly, with diabatic and strong dynamic lift/cooling supporting a deep near freezing isothermal layer. Lift and saturation will begin to wane 21 to 00z, with p-type changing over to a light freezing rain/drizzle overnight. Ice amounts are expected to be less than a 0.10". Just south of this heavy snow area and west of US 1, snow amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible, with the bulk of the snow occurring through mid to late morning. Then as the warm air aloft spreads into the area from the southeast, p-type is expected to change-over to freezing rain, with a 0.10 to 0.25" of freezing rain/ice possible through the afternoon. If the change-over to freezing rain occurs quicker than forecast, snow amounts will be less, but ice amounts could easily exceed a 0.25" of an ice. Ice/freezing rain amounts combined with wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range will cause widespread damage from downed trees and power-lines. Finally, east of US-1 and south of I-85, warm nose spreading into the area during the mid to late morning will result in a sharp NW to SE reduction in snow and ice amounts. After a quick morning burst of snow and/or snow-sleet mix, which could bring 1 to 4 inches of snow to the area, a brief period of freezing rain can be expected before changing over to rain. Little to no ice is expected.

Forecast amounts have lowered here. Point forecast was 2-4", now 1-2". Zone forecast was 1-3", now"'around an inch".

Under a WWA for 1"-3" snow and ice; point forecast calls for 2"-4". Confusing.

Does what's happening in the midwest have any bearing on things here as far as the precip shield? OKC on Wednesday (per the AFD) was calling for 2"-4" with banding of 6" or more. Today, a trend of keeping more significant precipitation tonight and tomorrow along and south of the Red river.

NWS GSP‏Verified account @NWSGSP 4m4 minutes ago 5pm Friday Update: WINTER STORM WARNING expanded! Here's our updated snow/ice totals. We're still 12-24 hours until onset of any wintry precip; we will take another hard look overnight to refine totals. Prepare, prepare, prepare! #ncwx #scwx #gawx #wncwx #cltwx #gspwx #avlwx

18z NAM--- 1" zr for RDU? Yikes!

Allan Huffman‏ @RaleighWx 3m3 minutes ago As I am working on this storm, the one think I can say with pretty good confidence. If you live in Hickory/Asheville. This looks like your storm. 12-18 is probably a safe bet and maybe even a little conservative. Enjoy. #ncwx

For those with coastal concerns, MHX Coastal Storm Briefing. https://www.weather.gov/media/mhx/LatestBriefing.pdf?fbclid=IwAR32vZ7ad46R716STT6MAcdEz7RArRBPbdzmLIzpquKzmNGdZ5I3EdGtghs