Solak

48 this morning, currently 82.

Interesting factoid for the Raleigh area.

Temps busted high again today. Forecast started at 81, then 84. Made it up to 86. Saw some Virga in the clouds.

Today's "Mostly sunny" isn't working out so well, but we've already busted high on the temps. 81 now, forecast was 80.

Picked up 0.08" from the dry forecast late Friday evening.

This is like the eighth or ninth dry front in the last month.

Forecast has changed a little for here. They took next week's chance of showers out. Another week of dryness looms.

RDU just hit 100F at 207 PM EDT, further breaking the all-time October high temp record. Daily highs were also broken at GSO (94F so far) and FAY (99F so far)

Just a partial list...

Dust off the skivvies!!! RAH says: For those looking for cooler weather, next weekend could be a breath of fresh air as a legitimate cold front looks to push through the area and possibly bring temperatures to below normal values for early October.

We might "see" some precipitation Monday night/Tuesday morning!!! Latest run of the NAM is showing enough air mass moderation for some virga possible across the northern zones.

Rainfall doesn't look to improve anytime soon. From the afternoon AFD from Raleigh... Other than a stray shower pre-dawn Wednesday across the western zones, precipitation chances will remain near zero through the period with high pressure jockeying into place overhead. The next chance of appreciable rainfall holds off until early to middle of next week thanks to the approach of a cold front from the northwest.

Seeing lots of Tweets today similar to this one.

For the Raleigh area folks...

Have a great trip!

One more round of possible severe before the cooldown.

And the crazy 06zNAM 3.83" and afternoon highs in the 60's on Saturday with a dry Sunday. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=krdu&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on

For RAH... 00z GFS 0.76" --- dry Sunday 06z GFS 2.32" --- wet Sunday. 00z rebounds in to the low 80's on Sunday 06z keeps it in the low 70's.

Well, it's not the 70's, but it's also not the 90's. High temperatures should remain near normal on Friday before dropping considerably the remainder of the period thanks to a plethora of cloud cover and the presence of ongoing showers/storms. Expect afternoon temperatures to meander within the low to mid 80s, with lows dipping into the low to middle 60s during the overnight hours. Some hints at a temperature increase as the front attempts to return north early next week, plausibly allowing central NC to return back into the warm sector.

GFS (18z) is still holding strong on the weekend cooldown. Low to mid 70's at this location.

I'll gladly take the rain without the severe factor. Dry around these parts.

From RAH this afternoon: Looking into Wednesday night into Thursday, this looks like the period most likely to receive significant rainfall at this point. In fact WPC QPF values for Wednesday and Thursday show a combined 2.5 to 3 inches of rain possible in the eastern half of the forecast area with a sharp gradient of lower values to the northwest. While the confidence in the frontal zone being over the area is high, the higher totals will ultimately depend upon where the shortwaves develop and supply the extra dynamics for enhanced rainfall. With more unsettled conditions in place and cloud cover likely to be greater, expect temperatures for the rest of the period to drop into the mid 80s for afternoon highs.

Another dry cold front. This east Coast trough and recent fronts haven't worked out very well for this location in the past 3 weeks. Just 0.58" since 7/24. Three more dry days forecast before the next monsoon sets in.