hooralph

(Hope the mods don’t mind me sharing this) I’m sharing - and looking for feedback on - a project I’ve been working on this summer. Its origins were an idea I’ve had for nearly 20 years - to create a platform where accurate information is elevated and showcased and helps improve the medium-range forecast information available to the general public. My idea was always to start with hurricanes, since forecasts are “easier” to measure for accuracy. https://hurricanehive.com/ Tldr; For anyone who wants to create medium-range forecasts: I built tools to create hurricane forecasts and then get accuracy assessments (alongside NHC and some computer models (hopefully more soon). For the general pubic (think of your friends and family): I also have put work into synthesizing the information into clear, digestible, hype-free forecast products. I think there is a serious information gap between the information available that can help people understand the medium-range risks and what they consume - increasingly through social media or weather apps that are very good at hourly / short-term forecasts. (yes, I am using AI - more on that below). I had time this summer and set out building it, which has been fun. If I get traction, I am want to extend this to a year-round product/service. Of course, I picked the tropical season of 2025, which has been devoid of long-track landfall threats… But I would love feedback - if you want to sign up and try the forecasting tools, you have options to keep them to yourselves or make them available for the public. I have the jobs to calculate accuracy in place, and will build out the front-end in the coming week or so. Initially I thought about leaning into a “leader board” approach, but don’t want that to scare people away from participating. I’d l love your ideas. And hopefully there will be more to track... For all you weather geeks, whether you want to forecast or not.. the entire storm archive back to 1851 is here, along with tools to search storms and create collections (if you register). I can also generate analog storms. How the forecasting works: when you register you can indicate you want to forecast (and whether you want to share them or not) Under /forecast - you can create a new forecast for each storm within 4 hours of the latest storm position update (so after 11 AM ET you have until 3). You can enter forecast points for any of the standard plots up to 120 hours and add an optional landfall point. Thanks for looking/listening and feedback. More (from my FAQ):

Riverside Park is a mess. Been a long time since we took such a direct hit.

Dunno if bluesky posts embed. no other good way to get vide on here... https://bsky.app/profile/blizzardgeek.bsky.social/post/3ly6ugvcnqk22

Absolute pounding on UWS. Wind ripping. Rain sideways. Haven't seen anything like this in a long time. Sounds/looks like a tropical storm.

And looking south from West Harlem

Yeah it's filling in. Huge clap of thunder just now. Here we go in Manhattan...

Are the storms moving on the line from Elizabeth/Staten Island towards the city drying up or just moving really really slowly?

Just reached KNYC and it’s clocking a bit over 97 at the moment. In fairness, the station gets a bit of sun as you can see. It’s not shrouded in the trees. General assessment from my walk: 99-100 in the blocks on the UWS and 97 ish in the park. the 100.4 was Madison Ave

Just recorded 100.3 in shade along Madison Ave at 75.

Southwest wind blows heat from the city right across to the airport.

Just recorded 96 at Bethesda Terrace in CPK but there’s a breeze blowing at me from the lake.

99.3 by AMNH (sidewalk, shade)

Got a 98.9 at Amsterdam and 86

97 along Amsterdam

I am here to bring you ground truth. Currently walking from Riverside across to east side. first measurement 97.3 in shade on West End

It’s so much more tolerable this morning with the breeze vs yesterday.

lol. No, I've never been that ambitious to trudge over there for a measurement. I just consider my Riverside Park measurements to be a good enough proxy. And honestly, the temp at my location might be one of the better proxies for CPK you'll find. Per this map from a few years ago we are lucky enough to live in one of the "coolest" spots in Manhattan - this little tongue that extends to the river in the low 100s.

I might.

So ah, anyone know what the NYT uses for their model? Props to them for calling attention to the coming heat but… they have the heat index maxing out at 94/95 for NYC.

Push alerts came in as it was pulling out.

Going to call out - in case we are tracking these things now: the severe thunderstorm warning area seems off (looking at RadarScope) - we had no warning here. this seemed to not match radar: * This severe thunderstorm will be near... Mott Haven and Midtown Manhattan around 1040 PM EDT. Laguardia Airport and Jackson Heights around 1045 PM EDT. East Tremont around 1050 PM EDT. Co-op City around 1100 PM EDT. City Island around 1105 PM EDT.

Hail! and frequent lightning on UWS.

Wife and walked across Manhattan (from the Hudson to 1st Ave). On our way back we were in Central Park and I noted how it suddenly felt warmer - muggy - because the wind had stopped. Then the east wind started cranking. Amazing. A back door front reminiscent of Boston in April. The CPK obs show it - wind was calm at the 16:51 reading and it was still 79.

Incredible, dense, shipwrecking fog on the Hudson.