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hooralph

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Everything posted by hooralph

  1. hooralph
    Really impressive how tough this little snowpack has been. White Boxing Day too. In the shade the pack is only interrupted by leaves that weren’t cleaned up.
  2. hooralph
    Not with a ruler, but eyeballed an inch.
  3. hooralph
    I don’t care if it holds on until tomorrow. Let the record show: this was Christmas Eve in Manhattan, 2024.
  4. hooralph
    Absolutely shocked at what I woke up to. Just back from a Jebwalk through Riverside Park and while I didn’t measure I can confidently say we topped 2”.
  5. hooralph
    I'm tracking this like "ha ha.. wow... November hurricane." And then I remembered I'm supposed to be in Orlando Tue-Thu next week...
  6. hooralph
    Been staring at this live cam in Punta Gorda. Per the Sea Level Rise Viewer, that location gets wet with about 4' of rise; looks like it's about 3' up the wall right now.
  7. hooralph
    Not a surprise, but just seeing now that per the 11 AM update Port Charlotte is now ground zero for surge
  8. hooralph
    I just checked. Of the more than 1400 posts in the main thread, there is one use of the word "biblical" and it was in reference to a model run. Otherwise, the thread is full of people assessing actual data and science and comparing to past circumstances and situations. You are processing this through a filter of relativist, denialist bullshit, the same shit that has people tuning out government warnings and staying in harms way. Can you name one storm that posed a greater surge threat to the stretch of coast from Tampa to Port Charlotte and explain why? Otherwise, what people are talking about is actual science.
  9. hooralph
    Tornado warnings already on their doorstep. I think it's too late.
  10. hooralph
    Oh they are squarely in A. Again, right on the water. This is the map of their location (red dot) with a 6' surge, which supports their experience that they are on "higher ground" as 4-5' surges have not reached them. At 7 feet their house is wet and it's off to the roof from there... "Best case" scenario is it's "only" an 8' surge and they only take on about a foot of water but damage to their entire area will be substantial. Obviously a 12' surge will render the entire area uninhabitable.
  11. hooralph
    I can't speak to all the individual choices that go into not evacuating, but in the case of my in-laws (on a canal in Port Charlotte), it is a toxic stew of nihilism/fatalism, MAGA-disenchantment with "experts" and just bad info or rationalizing based on past experience. My MIL last night said "It's a wait and see game as to where it makes landfall. Actually it would be better if it lands closer to us because a lot less surge if that happens." With Helene, the amount of people (at least per social media) in Appalachia who were "not expecting" to be impacted that way was an alarm bell that says how people are getting critical information is getting distorted by cord cutting and reliance on social media.
  12. hooralph
    My in-laws at this red dot location in Charlotte Harbor have dug their heels in will not be leaving. The have a false sense of security because the slight elevation of their side of the street has kept them dry in 5-6" surges. At 7, the water is at their door. My last plea to move was met with this: "Actually it would be better if it lands closer to us because a lot less surge if that happens"
  13. hooralph
    Charlotte Harbor up to 8-12'
  14. hooralph
    I hate to go all IMBY (or specifically in-laws back yard), but given that the track is tucked in just S of TB, does the surge forecast seem shifted a little too far north here? Specifically I am wondering about Port Charlotte. With an expanding wind field, how far down would the max surge extend? (and again, wouldn't it extend further S than N?)
  15. hooralph
    This is a fantastic tool. Using it to look at the surge impact in port charlotte, where my father in law who lives on a canal refuses to evacuate. Playing with the levels I can see how 4-5’ (seen in Ian and Helene) has not reached his house. But at 6 it reaches him. https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr/6/-9139452.470242618/3119591.722667004/14/satellite/none/0.8/2050/interHigh/midAccretion
  16. hooralph
    Amazing amount of information here. https://www.reddit.com/r/asheville/ - you can really see the community rallying to help, but yes, it is dire. But it's clear there is very little communication, so you can reasonably hope he simply doesn't have a way to call.
  17. hooralph
    Charlotte Country (Port Charlotte) has already ordered evacuations. Overreaction? Proper reaction?
  18. hooralph
    We're supposed to fly out of Halifax on Saturday afternoon (after a 3.5 hour drive from PEI). Safe to say this snuck up on us. Trying to figure out if we need to try to proactively change it.
  19. hooralph
    Awesome lighting and thunder. A summer classic.
  20. hooralph
    LFG.
  21. hooralph
    I think that’s the full year. I think it comes from a national study. You can click on the article and then go to the research.
  22. hooralph
    Forgive me if this was shared previously; relevant to the CPK discussion and the summer in general. Very localized heat island map. I was gratified to find I live by that “cooler” tongue on the UWS; I suspect the streets (esp the wide ones : 106 and 110) providing more of a channel for upsloping winds. https://www.thecity.nyc/2023/07/26/heat-island-hot-map-temperature/
  23. hooralph
    These things have been falling apart before hitting Manhattan like Adams put up some deflector shield.
  24. hooralph
    Pretty garden variety strong thunderstorm on UWS.
  25. hooralph
    Eyeballing about 2.5” here in Riverside Park. Maybe closer to 3? Glorious morning. I usually get coffee and just take a walk in the park. This one is perfect.
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