andyhb

00z GFS manages to hammer St. Louis, Chicago, Detroit, Toronto, and Montreal. True share the wealth track. That is just an incredibly impressive upper low for that far south. Sure, it could use more cold air, but dynamic cooling will no doubt come into play with such a potent setup aloft.

EPS mean is also quite impressive considering the somewhat iffy operational run. How wound up the upper low is when it begins progressing poleward will be key in determining the extent of precip and also the warm nose. I’d keep an eye on any shifts towards a more open wave/less occluded cyclone especially early in the storm’s evolution across the Plains and MS Valley.

Substantial uptick in snowfall/QPF for most of the Lakes/Midwest on the 12z GEFS mean vs. the 06z.

It is possible, albeit I’d put the probability of such an outcome on the lower side given an occlusion that far south is a relative rarity.

Low occludes too early on the 18z GFS.

I don’t check in here all that often, but I’ll summarize the last few days of model runs for January across most of the CONUS in a couple of words. Switch. Flipped.

Ensemble means continue to indicate the potential for a higher end event late this weekend into early next week. Pretty expansive area of significant snowfall on the means, and a solid chunk of the members really bomb the surface low out into the 970s. Would suggest fairly widespread blizzard conditions are possible. Looks to be a potential coast to coast storm as well and should certainly help the snowpack out west. I do like how the cold air is there but not overwhelming, which would suggest less potential for the surface low to get suppressed by excess high pressure in its developmental stages.

#rdy2bburied

Impressive EPS mean for that far out.

That storm on the Euro/GFS/ensembles in the second week of January is a monster. A bit of a shame that moisture is cut off by the preceding system about 36-48 hours prior, but the ensembles are pretty locked it for high impact potential across a pretty large expanse of real estate. One may be concerned about the degree of suppression if all of the cold becomes involved at once, the STJ dominates, and/or the surface reflection isn’t as strong initially.

How has that guy not been banned yet...

https://x.com/LydiaFielderTV/status/1733641370793812357?s=20 Multiple deaths reported from the Clarksville TN tornado earlier.

https://x.com/TikovonlaberWX/status/1733624586376233148?s=20 In Gallatin.

Supercell west of Nashville is looking prime to produce a strong tornado.

https://x.com/NC5_LelanStatom/status/1733584838408425710?s=20

Apparently the Robinson IL/Sullivan IN tornado from this event is being re-evaluated by NWS Lincoln, partly due to flooding that prevented surveys of certain portions of the track. Wonder if we get an upgrade to EF4 here.

10 years since 11/17/2013 today.

https://x.com/ClintonHaVi/status/1717062382290186357?s=20 Conditions getting very nasty via this video.

Acapulco does have a radar, but it is currently out of service and has been for sometime. They have had major upheaval in that city in the 21st Century.

That is one of the all time NHC discussions.

It's a Cat 5 per NHC...

Acapulco is in trouble from this one if it continues to outpace intensity forecasts/doesn't fall apart on approach. Current official track essentially puts the RFQ right over the bay/city. Some Pauline '97 vibes with how it parallels the coast for a bit too, which produced extreme flooding in Guerrero.

12z guidance, particularly the Euro, are not painting a pretty picture for 94L regarding the Antilles. MDR upper air pattern is amazingly favorable for it this late in the season in an El Nino year, plenty of heat content/warm SSTs to work with as well.

https://twitter.com/seekndstroy7809/status/1699937840262512887?s=46&t=lVM9qxUr3uVWV5VH8ESp6g This may be a first.

The new HAFS-A is literal weenie bait, gets down to 900 mb with 178 kt (205 mph) sustained winds in the next 36 hours. That would break the Atlantic record for wind speed by 15 mph (Allen, 1980).