Radtechwxman

Surprised at the SPC outlook. It was tamer than I imagined. Talked about possible moisture issues which I find odd because dew points look better imo than compared to Friday's setup. However, if we get deep mixing could see some issues. They mentioned moisture depth could be shallower. Also mentioned capping concerns and absence of lift. I think there will be ample forcing to overcome that imo.

It's consistently taking a robust helicity track right through Peoria where I live. Storm mode definitely more discrete to semi discrete versus more clustered towards Iowa. Is this forming on a lead wave or just on the lead edge of the exit region of the jet? Seems like this first wave may be the more robust tornado threat with a potential 2nd round associated more with cf which looks more qlcs variety albeit still showed supercell characteristics and some broken quality to line.

That early day wave definitely bears watching. Cape, moisture, and sigtor all building in with it.

Other model guidance suggesting an early wave now. 01z hrrr has an expansive precip shield at end of its run. Definitely something that will need to be watched. Certainly would shunt the threat south where destabilization could possibly happen on southern fringe. This is just giving me 3-28-20 vibes. This is about the time models went from outbreak scenario to a total mess. Only time will tell.

23z hrrr showing an mcs developing in ne MO at end of its run. Oh boy. Getting 3-28-20 vibes from that run. Hopefully won't get an early day wave that messes everything up.

10z hrrr not as impressive from a reflectivity standpoint compared to earlier runs. It does develop discrete activity ahead of the line but it seems to really struggle to take off. Run to run differences at this point aren't shocking with models trying to figure out morning convection.

Well gfs showed me getting like 4-5in with today's system so I wouldn't trust it. Lol

Oh the memories. I can't even remember what the criteria was for those.

The evolution of this system is rather interesting. A split jet stream pattern will lead to a pair of sfc lows, one in north central Plains and other in south central Plains. They will be attempting to phase but may not do so till the east coast where a bigger Nor'easter looks to develop. The northern low will help pull up moisture from southern stream system and create a swath of precipitation similar to today's event albeit more nw to se oriented. Better chances of snow once again may be I80 north with mixing issues south of there. However, things are subject to change based on degree of or lack thereof interaction between the northern and southern stream systems.

Challenge accepted

Better get out my shovel and snowblower. That cold rain is going to bury me again.

20 yrs later. Lol. They only missed it's near entirety in IL. I guess better late than never

Literally was just thinking that. Kind of puzzled. Pretty impressive event with heavy snow rates, high winds, convective snow, and very deep low pressure.

Nice gravity waves showing up

This is definitely a prolific thundersnow producer. Hope there's some good video out of this. Unreal amount of lightning in the snow band.

That is truly white rain. Lol. Looks like it's starting to accumulate. It's snowing decent here but not hard enough to stick. Our precip looks to end soon. I'm on very nw edge of deformation band.

You getting any lightning? Saw some strikes near Springfield. Reflectivity impressive near you.

Man if this system had cold air to work with, this would be one hell of an epic snowstorm and blizzard

I knew I should have went to Bloomington today. Had a feeling thundersnow would be rampant today with the steep lapse rates and strong frontogenesis.

Bloomington airport reporting snow now and temperature dropped to 33. Lightning really starting to ramp up. Thundersnow looking like good possibility.

WPC doesn't seem to be buying the extreme se solutions

Well it was nice while it lasted. What a winter of model chaos. *gets out violin*

Though I do agree nam is on some drugs, I'm not sure I buy the extreme se hrrr/rap. It literally doesn't even get rain that north. Not sure precip shield will be that shunted south. Though hrrr/rap do have sfc low track pretty far south.

Oh nam's. If only. Why must you tease and be wrong 99.9% of the time

Lololololol. Wagons south on 12z hrrr. Not even getting rain here anymore. Get the field goal ready for a punt. But also not sure I would 100% trust hrrr/rap at this range. That's still about 24hrs or a little more out. Anything still possible really. But overall my expectations are lowering drastically.