Radtechwxman
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Everything posted by Radtechwxman
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Definitely think Earl is a major hurricane now. Looks very impressive on satellite imagery.
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Looks like a big slug of dry air just temporarily has disrupted the inner core. Can see it on IR, water vapor, and vis sat. But some deep convection is trying to rewrap around and close out dry air. May halt or slow intensification for a bit but should be off to the races later today into tonight.
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2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion
Radtechwxman replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Hrrr definitely underestimating current convection strength. Definitely an ofb with this activity pushing east and south. Hard to see with limited radar spacing where it's at currently and visible sat just now coming into light. Extensive cloud shield could really dampen instability into the afternoon but hoping for a quick recovery behind this. Wondering though if outflow from this will shunt threat further south. -
Was that in Lubbock's jurisdiction? I keep checking their Twitter and haven't seen anything.
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Are they going to survey the Morton, TX tornado or did it even hit anything?
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Thanks man! I appreciate your input!
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@Quincyhow do you feel about initiation on dryline in south central KS? TP is obvious play but looks to get messy quick and could get undercut by front
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I'm pretty much expecting qlcs at this point because overall shear vectors seem largely parallel to front and wind fields aloft are more southerly as the trough really goes neg tilt. Why I like low amplitude waves better than full latitude troughs when it comes to neg tilt esp because I feel you tend to get more meridional flow over warm sector with full latitude troughs. Also instability looks rather limited up this way but shear is ample. HSLC and strong forcing on cf racing east to me screams qlcs.
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Yeah I'm definitely skeptical of instability north of I72 and even I70. Could be a HSLC setup which would favor a qlcs.
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What does everyone think of Wed? Really comes down to timing here in IL. Nam seems to be very fast like gfs and pretty much kills severe threat here because of early timing. Hoping euro is right on timing. This latest run looks a lot more messy as well. Wish I could chase Tues. Hoping for something local Wed here but not feeling optimistic about my chances.
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I think Tues and Wed have solid potential. Mon may not have enough moisture yet. Definitely worried about trough timing Wed.
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This forum is sure absolutely dead for 3 outlooked areas next week in tornado alley.....
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Yeah I wouldn't trust any gfs solution. Lol
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It's too bad the storm peaks to our west and dampens east. Would have been a good track for a lot of us to cash in. Hrrr/rap look a bit more robust like nam but not holding my breath. Probably another 1-3in at best.
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These gfs outputs are laughable. Has a nice band of snow moving in from Iowa and Missouri and then just poof gone. Then it reappears then poof gone again. Makes no sense.
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Looks like big winner from this will be Des Moines. They been getting crushed by banding. Models didn't do well with this system at all. Pretty much everything had precip here all day with a slight reduction before an uptick again this evening. Pretty much only had one decent wave early this afternoon and that was it then massive dry slot since then. Models hinting at more snow tonight but I'm skeptical. Freezing drizzle now.
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Lol massive dry slot here
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This first wave seems like it is going to be a lot further south than models had it. Also the amount of lightning in the wintry precip in MO now is impressive. Wish that was here. I foresee the snow amounts being on the very low end of forecast. I think getting an inch at this point will be optimistic.
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Curious if this warm nose will get as north as some models suggest. Hrrr bringing it up past I74. ILX was thinking it would mostly impact areas between I70 and I72 but some hi res models are saying otherwise.
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Had a few rumbles this morning! It was so nice. Let me know spring storms are just around corner.
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I would be ecstatic for a solid advisory event! No lack of appreciation here! I was saying most guidance has 1-2in which is sub advisory levels. But I will take what I can get! I was mostly saying this system is a letdown compared to last few systems but any winter precip is good to me.
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GFS still trying to make something of this but everything else looks like trash. Lol
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I was wondering why it looked that way. I was like is it convective? Lol
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Wouldn't trust GFS. It did awful with last storm. Can't wait to see what NAM shows. Lol
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Well right now gfs is pretty much a miss south and euro has a large precip shield that spreads the "wealth" or in this case the "poor" as amounts are pretty anemic.
