Radtechwxman

Gfs continues to take heavy snow axis nw. Jeez. Went from double digits days ago to 1-2in now. I think it is definitely an extreme north outlier. A gfs/euro blend would yield a nam like placement.

I'm guessing they will be north. GEFS was north of OP GFS. Just a hunch from the trends lately.

Euro not budging. Continues to keep heavy snow swath around I70 corridor

If I'm not mistaken, I think the energy that will be responsible for the wintry component of the storm system Thurs comes onshore sometime early tomorrow. Hopefully that sampling will help models.

It's also nam at 84hrs. Speaks for itself. Also only out to 12z Thurs. GFS didn't really amp low till later Thurs morning into afternoon. Also seems nam may be a tad slower.

Valid point. Though I do feel euro corrected way more than gfs did, at least for round 1. Definitely curious to see if the secondary low ends up weak and south like a few weeks ago or if this one will be more amped and nw.

Well here it was pretty high impact. Travel was nearly shutdown. But I agree. First two definitely outshined it. I think GHD III was named more for the day it fell on not necessarily because of it's predecessors. But it still was a high impact storm for a large area of the US.

Well gfs ended up doing well nailing the waa event being well north last time with wave 1 but this time wave 1 is going to be all rain. Wave 2 is our only hope at wintry precip and that did end up way south like euro had it so guess you're right. There are definitely similarities to GHD III but plenty of differences as well.

Hard to ignore the consistency of GFS showing an amped system for many runs now. Snow amounts likely a bit overdone though. But man that would be a great storm with a nice swath of double digit totals and near blizzard to blizzard conditions.

I know it's nam and it's long range for it, but certainly looking like it could do something nice at 500mb. Taking on a negative tilt in TX and closing off. I'm guessing it would be more north like GFS.

Feel like we just saw this play out in models recently. Oh we did. GHD III. GFS was north. Euro way south and slowly came north each run. Nam looking more like GFS but curious to see more of evolution into Thurs of secondary wave.

Big differences aloft on euro. Northern stream trough digs much more south and is slower to depart which slows and shunts southern stream wave south. On gfs the northern stream trough initially digs south but then flattens and pushes east. This allows the southern stream piece to eject quicker and more north. It also took on a negative tilt which allowed a much stronger sfc low to develop ne. Euro has a much weaker sfc low south with a more strung out trough.

Whelp euro is drastically different from gfs. It has pretty significant icing here behind cf Wed night but secondary wave of wintry precip with low riding up the cf is significantly more south. I remember euro did this with last storm system as well then slowly nudged north to match gfs. Not saying it will but gfs is overall being more consistent run to run and euro is showing pretty different outputs each model cycle.

Kuchera map better imo because ratios will probably be better than 10:1 especially Thurs with rapidly falling temperatures behind cf

0z gfs back to being more amped up

Here's the time period where things look meh. 18z gfs not overly impressive. But still many days out and the energy still way out by Alaska. Still plenty can change for the better or worse.

Why is it so hard to get a nice phased system in the Midwest these days? Always seems to trend to strung out pos.

Models also tend to be too slow to eject upper lows out of the SW

Yeah he was talking about the same area being impacted not the amounts seen. This will likely be lower as it looks most of the QPF will fall in warm sector of this system and the deformation band of this will move through fairly quickly vs the last storm which was very long duration. But that's only if GFS is right. Latest euro just has some minor anafrontal wintry precip and no real wrapped up deformation band.

12z euro took a big dump on this run. The secondary low never really takes off so you don't get a nice wrapped up deformation band of wintry precip behind the cf like GFS has. A lot of moving pieces with this. Curious to see how it evolves.

Man 0z euro came in all sexy to

Man I would love 0z gfs to verify. To get to back to back double digit snowstorms within a few weeks of each other. But being 6 days out, we will still see major shifts in models and anything is still possible. Big ol' tease.

Definitely a little under what was forecasted for your area but still a great storm for you!

Hard to measure because of drifting but several reports anywhere from 10-12in around me. Was a 12in report on my road to the east and 11in+ report just to my south. Peoria airport to my southwest had officially 10.6in. Definitely best winter storm I have had in years. Had many periods of moderate snow and several of heavy snow. One thing I found interesting was that flake size overall through the event was pretty small but we still managed to get good totals probably owing to good ratios with very cold temperatures. The two things I wish that happened was for wave 2 to hit up here also and for more wind during the snowfall. But it was still a great storm. I got my double digit snowfall and I'm happy

At this point do we trust globals though or start looking more at short range hi res guidance? Honest question. Always wondered at what point do you shift away from globals. I see 12z euro joined nam in missing wave 2 here and also downing my totals for wave 1. Not sure what to think.