Radtechwxman

Curious if dry air will impact Helene at all. Water vapor showing a channel of dry air in Gulf but if it gets organized tonight and really closes off may not matter. Would be more issue if areas remain open and it gets entrained into center.

Basically nothing that will help it strengthen in the near term. Until convection pops over the center Helene going to be steady state or possibly weaken with exposed center.

What a mess. Lol. LLC running away from convection. Shear definitely still impacting Helene. I'm beginning to think it may not get its act together until the Gulf.

This is the best PTC9 has looked so far

Agreed. I think we may finally see a TD or more likely a TS evolve. Now big question is how long before RI starts? If it starts sooner given conditions ahead could definitely overachieve.

Massive convective blob going up and sustaining near the LLC

My thoughts as well. Obviously a lot can change with motion as the mid/low level centers organize and try to align but right now this would be more east and is moving pretty nnw

Real good spin within that area of convection south of Cuba. Curious if that's only a mid level circulation or if we ate getting a low level circulation developing within that area as well.

888mb was just unrealistic. All the hurricane models were way overdone imo. Probably a more realistic portrayal. But like I said before, can't really trust any intensity guidance right now. Need our system to really develop first.

Yeah I'm really curious if we will see that cutoff and Helene Fujiwara with each other or if Helene will just deflect ne with little to no interaction.

I'm not trusting any model intensity until we have a developed LLC and this system starts organizing. Models are struggling with intensity because the system hasn't got established yet so they're essentially grasping at straws that don't exist.

Use the global OPs for pattern and track, less so for intensity. The ECMWF is excellent for overall track guidance. Obviously, if the globals are significantly intensifying a system, it's worth noting. But it is better to use the TC models for intensity once we have an established tropical cyclone. I say this because TC models can way overdo the intensity on an invest that has yet to form a proper vorticity maximum. That's a bit of a tangent, so to just be clear, focus less on the global OPs for exact intensity and more for track of system. I'd stress even further that the ensembles means are much better at determining overall track three-to-four days out, especially prior to TCG, as it's still unclear where exactly that will occur for initial origin of track. Great analysis. Kind of my thought. Though shockingly GFS has overall been on board with a high end outcome. But like you said not really trusting intensity outcomes till we have a defined vorticity maximum and formation of a TD or TS. So far the gyre seems to be struggling to focus an area of concise vorticity. If this takes a while to organize, higher end outcomes are less likely to be realized.

0z euro remaining very tame with little to no deepening up until landfall. What is its track record with hurricanes?

Satellite remarkably improving now. Much more symmetrical looking and nice CDO expanding and cooling. Might see this overachieve a bit in short term before it levels off or weakens near landfall as that shear/wind shear catches Francine.

Looks like we are getting decent pressure drops again. Probably will see a hurricane later this morning or early afternoon.

Deep burst of convection now wrapping into the LLC. Will see if it maintains. If so strengthening should commence again. I do agree with 40/70 Benchmark and ceiling is likely lower now with this one unless something really crazy happens today.

Totally agree. Ernesto was never able to truly take off due to its inner core plagued by dry air despite favorable shear and SST's.

That really has got into the core and majorly disrupted it. This could definitely hold the ceiling back till landfall if the dry air can't be mixed out.

Agreed. But odd dry air issues weren't forecast till closer till landfall. Last nhc discussion even talked about favorable moist environment for Francine. Seems kind of unexpected at least this early.

Looking at water vapor and satellite some dry air entrainment definitely got into core. Curious if this will have major impacts on intensification or if the high octane ocean will help compensate.

8pm advisory brought winds up to 70mph but pressure stayed same. You don't see that happen often.

Satellite has really improved last few scans. Beryl has been a remarkable hurricane. Inner core has really reorganized again.

I think would have been different story if they had flown a mission hours ago. I think they might have just missed the peak of Beryl. Regardless still an absolute monster for July.

It's too bad hurricane hunters won't be in there till later because I think Beryl is probably peaking now and would love to see data. Have a feeling by time they get there we will be past the peak. Wouldn't be shocked if Beryl is cat 5 now.

This thread is dead for such a potential significant day tomorrow