Radtechwxman

Videos definitely seem tame for a 140 cat 4 storm. But like people said could be issue of chasers not being where best winds were. Not many locations to safely intercept down there. Something I did notice though on satellite is that cloud tops warmed a lot in ne quadrant at landfall but stayed very cold in western eyewall. Wonder if better winds will end up being west which is atypical.

Per NHC: so kind of confused why they didn't go higher if they felt it was conservative Peak 700 mb flight-level winds from the aircraft were 136 kt, corresponding to an intensity of about 120 kt, which might be a bit conservative. Radar and satellite images show numerous mesocyclones rotating around the eyewall.

Surprised winds didn't come up from 140 with these pressure drops

East side? No way. West side yes

Think we see winds come up again before landfall or it holds steady?

Anyone got a VDM from hurricane hunters currently?

Man that's going to be a wild ride. You live there or chasing?

Lol. Oops. I was thinking in the hurricane. My bad

That would be up. By a lot. Lol

8pm update kept winds at 130 and pressure of 942mb

Any new wind data from recon?

Although satellite continues to look impressive, seems like southern eyewall is struggling a bit on radar. Shear and dry air may be impacting it. But I think intensity will maintain till landfall or maybe increase a bit more.

Wonder if they're going to bump winds up because of their readings in eastern eyewall

On radar it has opened in sw quadrant again. But satellite presentation continues to improve

Few things I noticed. Eyewall lightning continues signifying intensification not done. Also western part of storm looks rather dry but that's also far from radar so hard to say. Might be getting influenced more by trough.

Will hurricane hunters be in there every hr now till landfall?

Closed off eyewall now could be troubling. May really allow Helene to fully take off till LF

Lightning has really ramped up in northern eyewall. Tell tale sign of intensifying or possibly RI hurricane.

I think the loop current and the positive trough interaction are doing their thing. Helene continues to organize with a better looking CDO, more defined core and eye popping. I think there's a decent shot we get a cat 4 landfall. Maybe even mid cat 4. But 130 I think is very achievable.

NHC not backing down on cat 4 landfall. But mentioning it's lacking inner core. If that doesn't develop overnight I don't see this hitting cat 4. Surprised they didn't mention the dry air issues plaguing it all day.

It's been the same one all day spiraling around its core. It's trying to mix it out. Think it will be able to shake it off? Not a Tswift reference

Wouldn't that double structure support an EWRC happening? That will definitely make it tougher for RI to occur

Dry air intrusions seem to be the story this season. That dry air made it into the core and really did a number on Helene getting organized. Francine struggled its whole life with dry air. Never could shake it. The high octane ocean and favorable outflow aloft will still support intensification but if the dry air can never fully be purged Helene won't hit her ceiling. Probably more a low end 3 maybe mid 3 at best. Regardless still will be devastating impact. Curious to see what will happen tonight over Loop Current.

Not sure if most of you realize that RI wasn't supposed to start till tonight into Thurs. The dry air definitely through a wrench in the core organization. However it's about to enter the very high OHC and even better upper atmospheric conditions.

You know what model has a terrible handle on this now? Hrrr. Can't say I'm surprised. Probably will catch on tomorrow.