Radtechwxman
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Everything posted by Radtechwxman
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Thundersnow starting to get active!
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I know. I'm impatient. Probably because this is the "main event" for me. Precip blossoming in MO and a nice convective feed into this band up north.
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I'm sure that will be me here soon. I don't buy the hrrr output
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I hope more precip blossoms south of this initial waa band like hrrr suggests. Otherwise not going to get much at all.
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I was about to post this and say the almighty snow bosoms. RIP
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Yeah we just can't catch a break meanwhile the rich keep getting richer from the last storm. Must be nice. Lol
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I would love if tonight overperformed like hrrr is showing here. Esp since it screws me mostly on back end precip
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Of course a massive bubble of lower totals right where I'm at
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0z hrrr is very odd. Have a double barrel strengthening low. Both low centers strengthening. One tracks basically over me and the other well se. It changes over precip from east to west. Gets me in a waa screw hole between lows. Not sure I buy that evolution. Very strange.
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Euro is skimpy with back end deformation snow compared to other models esp further south on tail end. Another thing I noticed is that hrrr last few runs has shown the waa precip staying snow here longer before mixing.
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When was the last time that model was right?
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Okay real question. It's been pondering me a while. How does this system have so much more warmer air with it vs the last? I get trough geometry is a bit different but I still am baffled with the track similarities between this one and last and how this time it looks mostly liquid here. Stronger llj? Deeper cross section of waa vs last?
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Gradients and cutoffs are going to be wild with this. I look to be very close to one. My forecast is 0-6in based on latest model runs.
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I actually felt like it came nw. Has kind of a barrel double low then one takes over further east. Nam/rap/hrrr were hinting at this at times. Maybe they were right. The snow gradient across Peoria County is comical.
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That is a good point. Noticed spc has toned down severe threat due to poor thermodynamics and limited moisture return. So less convection.
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I wouldn't trust nam. It did terrible with last storm.
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Nam continues to be so nw with the low track
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Not really. Lol. Screws the parts of IL that also missed out on last storm. And Ohio Valley really getting the shaft.
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That stings a little. Just love barely missing a massive snowstorm and possible blizzard Hoping hrrr is overdone with that warm surge. Or changes over sooner
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Lol instead of getting better consensus it's getting worse
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Minus the void over my county decided to keep rain here longer
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Comical that gfs hammers areas all over me and has a void over Peoria County where I am #weatherdome
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This. Not trusting them 100%. Globals actually did better with track on last storm.
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Nam/rap/hrrr still seem to be on nw side of other guidance. Will make huge difference here.
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At this point I would start trusting hi res guidance more over globals. 06z hrrr seemed to be finally in line with other models. Rap was still pretty nw.
