Radtechwxman

GFS all over the place with this. Euro has been a bit more consistent in snow impacting areas this north. But definitely could see this getting shunted se because of the arctic front. Here's to hoping

GOAT thread starter right here. This one has potential for a good thumping on someone. Another big surge of moisture over cold air mass pressing south. Could end up quite south and weak like GFS suggests or a bit stronger and north like Euro suggests.

We creating a 2nd thread for part 2 Thurs?

Even though snow totals weren't huge here, it was still a great storm. Had several hours of ripping snow and that incredible death band finale. Sadly was working the whole time so had to periodically look out window. Ha. Looks like 5-6in at my house in North Peoria. As models suggested, heaviest band setup just south of here. If this system was moving slower man this would have been crippling but still a good hit. Peoria airport had 4 consecutive hours of quarter mile visibility which was broke by 1 hr of half mile visibility followed by another hr of quarter mile visibility. Very impressive.

Pouring pixie dust in Peoria. Was hoping for some dendritic snow. This could definitely impact totals. Regardless still snowing moderately to heavy at times. Visibility definitely under a half mile in downtown. I will take what I can get.

06z nam bumped north slightly with higher totals

If only RAP was right. I would be so happy. But HRRR more realistic and in line with other guidance

Yet another gift from this POS storm. Lol. PUNT

Think maybe that could be part of issue with models shifting south? Or was that mostly because of weaker south sfc low?

Bout ready to do a punt with this storm

Models continuing south shift. Congrats I72 corridor. This may be your storm @WeatherMonger whether you wanted it or not. I really hope these south shifts stop. Pretty soon and I won't even make warning criteria snow anymore.

Euro still being a stubborn mule and won't budge. Here's to hoping hi res guidance is right for a change.

Decent se jump on a lot of 06z guidance. Oh boy. Here we go. Hoping it doesn't continue on 12z runs.

Slowly creeping north. But pretty dry like euro

Try a flamethrower. Lol. How much did you end up with btw?

Look at dat hodo. 1000+ SRH. Can we say snow wedges? :p someone call SyFy. Movie incoming. All jokes aside really impressive snow sounding

03z rap ate its spinach tonight

I think to start yes. But column will really be rapidly cooling by afternoon which should push warm nose south and east. HRRR mixes it out pretty quick in the morning. How long that transition takes will be critical to snow amounts.

So here's the million dollar question. Will the nam/gfs/hrrr/rap camps be right with stronger and more nw or will weaker and se euro prevail? It does have support from other foreign guidance. I'm honestly not sure what to think.

Just crazy how close we are to event and how far we are from a consensus. WPC definitely seems to be banking on the northern solutions. That may be an unwise decision. I mean it can go either way but the fact foreign guidance won't budge north definitely has me concerned american models are out to lunch.

Climatology does favor it this time of year Honestly I thought so as well. My gut is saying it will track further se but I could be wrong. This does have better upper level support than last storm for a stronger more nw storm.

Man nw trend is not being denied this time. If it keeps up I will stay all ice or end up getting all rain. Was kind of looking forward to a wind swept snow since last snowstorm was pretty windless. Hoping this can correct south a little. I'm right on the southern edge of the heaviest swath.

I mean you got to take a blend at this point. But the difference right now days out is laughable. Really thought the sampling would help.

Yeah that's a tough call. Getting close to that window. We are like 48hrs or so from possible wintry impacts but model agreement not the greatest. Worse than it was with GHD III at this range.

Either GFS is really sniffing one out or it's on crack. Anyone think the heavy snow swath will be that nw? Gfs has a pretty gnarly ice storm here.