Radtechwxman
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Everything posted by Radtechwxman
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LOL at 12z nam. How bout a deformation zone of rain. I think nam may be out to lunch. Just a hunch.
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Man the warm nose with this is BRUTAL. The low actually looks to potentially track more se than last one but still showing a lot of precip type issues because of that warm nose. Of course we couldn't get the arctic air in time for this. I'm actually a bit more nervous with this one versus last. Hoping we can see a correction se like with yesterday's storm last second. Same areas that just scored big may do it again with this one. I really hate El Nino winters.
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I thought the same thing. But GFS does it to. But not as long as nam and euro. Just seems crazy to get that north of a warm slug with where the sfc low is tracking. It's south of where current storm is.
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Euro doing that same big warm surge at 850mb. Man I really didn't think I would have any precip type issues with this one. Hoping that can calm some on future runs.
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GFS is back! Start playing THE BOYS ARE BACK IN TOWN!
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Given how poor nam looked days out with current storm with its far nw sfc low track and taking the 500mb low very far west I wouldn't trust it. Seems like nam is usually late to the party to catching on to other models. Also not sure it has resolved current system's snow pack.
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Man that deformation band evaporated faster than my last relationship. Getting some nice winds now and mood flakes though.
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Nam doing nam things. I get this thing could pull up a big slug of warm air with it but where nam has the low placement I just don't buy rain this north that long or maybe even period. Thermals seem wonky on it. It is doing strange things with the 500mb low.
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18z gfs continues to be stubborn as a mule. But does serve a nice waa wing of snow. Just no deformation zone snows here. Models all over the place.
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Team Euro. Ride or die. @Chicago Storm we need back your Ke$ha certified snow maps. Those always reeled these in.
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Lovely. Hopefully it trends back but feel like it won't. This first storm trended nw so makes sense this trends se. Can't win here. Ha
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How is that in comparison to the OP? I haven't had time to dive super deep into this one yet.
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Well ICON, Ukmet, GDPS, and somewhat nam/euro all look good for this. GFS did pretty well with this current system. Is it going to be right and be a miss se for us?
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Yeah all valid points man. I haven't dove deep into this setup because I figured models will be flip flopping till this first system moves out. I was guessing the issue was aloft but still surprised the isotherm gets above 0C this north with where the low tracks. But it is a powerful system and models often underestimate WAA. I definitely think the snowpack could set up a nice baroclinic zone for the next system to follow. I anticipate it will track further south than this ongoing storm.
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Kinda surprised models like NAM and Euro are showing precip type issues so north with this. Thinking after models resolve this current system and its snow pack it may resolve those issues better.
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Hoping it won't end up more suppressed like the 06z gfs run and miss a lot of the nw subforum. Need a nice spread the wealth storm for us.
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Some cam guidance not as gung-ho as earlier about accumulations in the deformation zone but imo looks to be shaping up nicely on radar
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06z gfs was not a fun run but trend is your friend. Just one run. Overall it's been very amped. Esp the ensembles
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It's starting to fill in some by STL
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Euro odd though with thermals. With as south as it tracks, it has rain for quite a bit before changeover here. Bit skeptical of this based on colder air available for this system.
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Some nice rippage here right now. Best rates so far.
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Not quite this early. I agree towards morning for sure. Back edge is on my doorstep unless it starts filling back in.
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No model handling this dryslot well right now I feel. It has really punched north and east. Models I feel never get a good handle on this. Looked like it was going to snow well into the night before but now looks to be ending early
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Yeah it's snow here now. But back edge of precip doesn't look super far away. Hopefully it keeps filling in.
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That dryslot is really punching north in MO. Curious how this will impact the event. Most cams fill back in the dryslot as the sfc low lifts closer and upper dynamics approach area.
