Radtechwxman

Lovely. Hopefully it trends back but feel like it won't. This first storm trended nw so makes sense this trends se. Can't win here. Ha

How is that in comparison to the OP? I haven't had time to dive super deep into this one yet.

Well ICON, Ukmet, GDPS, and somewhat nam/euro all look good for this. GFS did pretty well with this current system. Is it going to be right and be a miss se for us?

Yeah all valid points man. I haven't dove deep into this setup because I figured models will be flip flopping till this first system moves out. I was guessing the issue was aloft but still surprised the isotherm gets above 0C this north with where the low tracks. But it is a powerful system and models often underestimate WAA. I definitely think the snowpack could set up a nice baroclinic zone for the next system to follow. I anticipate it will track further south than this ongoing storm.

Kinda surprised models like NAM and Euro are showing precip type issues so north with this. Thinking after models resolve this current system and its snow pack it may resolve those issues better.

Hoping it won't end up more suppressed like the 06z gfs run and miss a lot of the nw subforum. Need a nice spread the wealth storm for us.

Some cam guidance not as gung-ho as earlier about accumulations in the deformation zone but imo looks to be shaping up nicely on radar

06z gfs was not a fun run but trend is your friend. Just one run. Overall it's been very amped. Esp the ensembles

It's starting to fill in some by STL

Euro odd though with thermals. With as south as it tracks, it has rain for quite a bit before changeover here. Bit skeptical of this based on colder air available for this system.

Some nice rippage here right now. Best rates so far.

Not quite this early. I agree towards morning for sure. Back edge is on my doorstep unless it starts filling back in.

No model handling this dryslot well right now I feel. It has really punched north and east. Models I feel never get a good handle on this. Looked like it was going to snow well into the night before but now looks to be ending early

Yeah it's snow here now. But back edge of precip doesn't look super far away. Hopefully it keeps filling in.

That dryslot is really punching north in MO. Curious how this will impact the event. Most cams fill back in the dryslot as the sfc low lifts closer and upper dynamics approach area.

I'm having the same issues so I feel this

A lot of mixing issues here thus far. Longer than what models depicted. Definitely getting nervous totals going to bust here tonight.

This snow better increase in intensity and size or this won't pan out nicely out. Kind of struggling so far. Marginal temps I'm sure aren't helping.

Though I am liking trends on hrrr I am a bit confused on its se trend given the low is 991mb now and it initialized it around 996mb. To me I would think it would end up more nw if it's stronger than it's depicting.

DVN being very aggressive with their snow forecast. Higher than most guidance. Also a very strongly worded afd. Meanwhile ILX sounds awful. Lol. Talking about mixing issues here tonight which I totally disagree with. That will be issue tomorrow.

You and me both. Minus the lake part. Ha

Hrrr/rap continue to be pretty nw for here and basically track low over me and have a rain for good chunk of Tues but nice front end thump. 3km and 12km nam though have trended more se and keep me out of mixing or rain as much. Not sure what to believe. Hrrr/rap have been pretty consistent.

Euro quite warm at beginning of this storm. Takes while for changeover for good chunk of IL. Not sure I buy that given the arctic air moving se. But that is plausible outcome IF the arctic air doesn't get as far south in time.

Starting to look like the WAA snows will be best of this storm for many, esp my area. Dryslot/mixing is looking to be a real issue here Tues after WAA snows. Deformation zone doesn't seem as impressive as one would think with a low this strong. Guessing maybe occlusion processes cutting off moisture feed too early. Do you think we will see the sfc low track nw of I55 like hrrr/rap/nam are suggesting? Also noticing on these models that the low seems kind of strung out despite being pretty strong. Idk if these models struggle with representing the isobars correctly but the low looks so large on these models.

I'm not getting excited at all considering I sat pretty forever on this current system and now look to get missed mostly nw. However the arctic air pushing in may help to limit extreme nw trends with this one.