Radtechwxman

Man if Euro was a smidge more north I could really cash in. So close. This is brutal

I wish GDPS could be right. Nice spread the wealth event.

Agreed. So much confluence east. Not optimal upper air pattern at all for a more wound up north storm. Crazy we may get another cold stretch with little to no snow.

Well 12z gfs is a lot more south. Getting a strong vibe this will be I72 south and maybe even I70 south. Cold and dry sucks. Maybe can get some clippers out of this pattern.

You and I both. Or maybe a nudge north. Lol

Definitely not liking the trends at the moment for this one. Getting that look and feeling of a miss south. Would be a real bummer to just have another cold,dry stretch with no snow.

It's sfc low placement was odd given where trough axis was. Very strange run. It did hit a lot of confluence east. A south trend wouldn't surprise me with depth of cold air but hoping it can be more north like euro.

After the weekend winter storm potential probably will be mostly a clipper pattern in that persistent nw flow. Hoping the weekend storm pans out nearby cuz this has been a snooze season so far.

125mph 950mb as of latest update

Maybe a little of both. But IR appearance is improving and lightning has upticked.

Eyewall definitely has improved on radar. Less open and looks like the concentric eyewalls have combined or close to.

Looks like Milton is bare minimum cat 4 now on latest update. 130 mph 944mb. I'm thinking it may landfall as low end 3 unless it restrengthens later but probably unlikely given satellite/radar presentation.

Lightning is still very prolific in the eyewall. Typically don't see that with weakening storms. I haven't seen this much eyewall lightning since Dorian.

Definitely perplexed why we don't have higher winds right now. That's insane

I knew EWRC would take its toll but didn't expect it back down to cat 4 already albeit just barely. Satellite appearance has definitely degraded compared to earlier. Curious to see if there's any recovery tomorrow after it completes EWRC.

That motion on radar really looks like part of eyewall could come on shore in Yucatan. Curious to see what effect this has on Milton.

Incredible amount of eyewall lightning

Wonder if interaction with Yucatan will disrupt COC and cause dry air entrainment since it's a smaller storm. However it's a very well put together storm compared to Helene at the point it would interact with Yucatan.

Hence why I'm confused why recon was finding steady pressures before they left

I'm really surprised at that given how the IR satellite appearance continues to improve and eye about to pop

Surprised nhc is being more conservative with top strength Milton reaches in Gulf esp given how it looks tonight. I think 150-155 is a good bet and likely higher if good organization remains next day or so while Milton remains in favorable low shear and high OHC.

Impressive microwave pass

Yeah I have a habit of doing that. Ha. But thanks for the input

I'm not but doesn't mean I'm not educated on hurricanes. I understand land friction and you don't see same winds as over water. But also typically with a cat 4 you will see higher sustained winds and much higher gusts. But also I don't think there's a lot of recording stations capturing that so could be missed. I just found it interesting pressure was dropping till LF but we did see clouds warm on satellite esp in NE quadrant and wonder if something meteorologically was going on. Not properly mixing down winds, something like that.

Not what we're saying at all. Not expecting 140mph winds at all. But one would expect sustained winds near or over 100mph with some gusts of 120+. Perry gusted to 99mph. I would have thought sustained winds would be closer to that. Just seems underwhelming.