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Radtechwxman

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Everything posted by Radtechwxman

  1. Radtechwxman
    Hrrr continues to be very anemic on snow amounts up this way compared to other guidance. Curious if that's a more realistic outcome with the marginal sfc temps or if it's underestimating compared to other hi-res guidance.
  2. Radtechwxman
    Lol 0z euro. Very anemic on snow totals and can see why. It gets temps into the mid to upper 30s in most areas. Feel like with its larger resolution it may be underestimating dynamic/evaporative cooling somewhat. Temps will definitely be at or a little above freezing but not sure about upper 30s.
  3. Radtechwxman
    Can't say I blame them. Doesn't look great there nor for my area. But with how crappy this winter has been I will take what I can get. At least pattern looks active after this and colder.
  4. Radtechwxman
    They always wait last second to issue waa. Idk why. You definitely aren't in a bad spot for a solid advisory snow. I'm thinking probably 1-2in more likely with 3-4in absolute best case scenario here in my neck of the woods.
  5. Radtechwxman
    Lol hrrr also has the screw zone over me. Peoria dome lives on. But obviously mesoscale banding impossible to nail till the day of.
  6. Radtechwxman
    Would love to ride the nam but I know better. Lol. Gfs/euro make more sense esp given trends of this winter. Plus gfs shows a max se of me and nw of me with Peoria in the lull so definitely bank on that happening. Lol
  7. Radtechwxman
    Honestly at this range I tend to start looking less at globals and more at short term model guidance. But can't completely disregard what globals are showing. Gem/euro have been consistently more east and at times south.
  8. Radtechwxman
    Liking the look of nam/namnest for here. I can't believe I just mouthed those words. Gfs a bit more se of nam but not too far off. Hrrr/rap look fairly se at their long range but also it's their long range and would take it with a grain of salt. Currently going with 2-4in optimistically but 1-2in wouldn't shock me.
  9. Radtechwxman
    That 0z nam run was a nice improvement
  10. Radtechwxman
    Right over Peoria of course. Lock it in. Lol
  11. Radtechwxman
    That is a valid point. Here's to hoping
  12. Radtechwxman
    18z nam is looking decent. Taking on a nice neg tilt at h5. But it's also nam and its long range.
  13. Radtechwxman
    The closest I could get is 24hr 10:1 or Kuchera on pivotalwx. However it cuts it close on some areas catching everything
  14. Radtechwxman
    Yeah I have as well. I was speaking more from the low strength perspective. Before it was sub 1000mb and even strengthening. However, now it seems to be more of a steady state low 1000's but in the scheme of things it doesn't really impact how it's going to evolve here in the Midwest/Ohio Valley.
  15. Radtechwxman
    Euro has more of a spread the wealth light to moderate snow event for many with a steady state low. Seems like the energy is really going into the costal transfer and ramping up a big nor'easter. But curious if we really will get the snow shield to expand that nw.
  16. Radtechwxman
    Do you think sampling of the upper wave will give any meaningful changes? Seems like anymore it's a crapshoot depending on how many RAOB sites it passes over. Definitely would be more beneficial to get a neutral to negative tilt sooner and an h5 wave to dig less south. Esp since now this storm is being driven solely by the southern stream wave with no phasing with the northern stream wave.
  17. Radtechwxman
    That one was ridiculously north days out. At least this one looks realistic. Would be nice to see that 500mb low dig less than it is. Looking at models looks like we could have a sampling by late tomorrow and for sure by early Sun. So hopefully that will help models hone in on track. I'm definitely sucked into this storm already but never got my hopes up fully expecting a downward trend like the Xmas Storm. But maybe this one can surprise us. Not holding my breath though.
  18. Radtechwxman
    0z euro not very pretty. Overall model guidance tonight not trending in right direction for a good storm or good hit for northern parts of subforum.
  19. Radtechwxman
    Totally agree. I always put more faith in euro and its ensemble guidance over gfs. Though with the Christmas storm every model was a trainwreck. Lol. Curious to see if euro holds where it is or if it goes se like 0z gfs.
  20. Radtechwxman
    And the Europeans even more so making us staying up so late to see 0z runs at almost midnight. Lol
  21. Radtechwxman
    Hopefully not a "trend" and maybe just a bad run. But definitely not out of the realm of possibilities. Probably going to see a lot of flip flopping until the system gets sampled which I'm guessing won't be till end of weekend or early next week.
  22. Radtechwxman
    Everything will be wagons west today. Get our hopes up this weekend. This start the bleed se. Lol. #Christmasstormvibes
  23. Radtechwxman
    Never good when you're rooting for goofus/canadian models to be right. Lol. Would be nice if euro would bump nw more in line with them but that would just be too nice
  24. Radtechwxman
    0z gfs certainly amped. Lol
  25. Radtechwxman
    Because it's something to track whether it ends in heartbreak or not for much of the forum. This 1st disturbance this weekend is meh. This one has real potential but equally high bust potential or just simply a miss for a good chunk of our northern subforum.
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