Radtechwxman

WPC doesn't seem to be buying the extreme se solutions

Well it was nice while it lasted. What a winter of model chaos. *gets out violin*

Though I do agree nam is on some drugs, I'm not sure I buy the extreme se hrrr/rap. It literally doesn't even get rain that north. Not sure precip shield will be that shunted south. Though hrrr/rap do have sfc low track pretty far south.

Oh nam's. If only. Why must you tease and be wrong 99.9% of the time

Lololololol. Wagons south on 12z hrrr. Not even getting rain here anymore. Get the field goal ready for a punt. But also not sure I would 100% trust hrrr/rap at this range. That's still about 24hrs or a little more out. Anything still possible really. But overall my expectations are lowering drastically.

09z rap was same. Big se shift. At this point I may not barely get rain. Ha. I'm waiting on runs today but starting to think better snow chance is definitely going to be well se of IL River.

That's probably a time contingent issue. They will issue those today.

I see LOT 1st to bite bullet on WSW. Strong work. Curious if DVN or ILX will follow.

I guess I didn't notice cuz it still scalped me on snowfall. Ha. 12km that is. Now that I look at sfc low track you're right. It definitely is more se. Just not as noticeable in snowfall in my area. Going to be tricky as it will be a tight zone of intense dynamic cooling. Hard to sniff out till you get closer.

12km nam just doesn't want to join the se party. It's very stubborn. 3km nam is playing nicer. 06z hrrr was a dream run and love what EPS is showing. I honestly still don't know what to expect. Hopefully models will be in better agreement tomorrow.

Alex, I will take 03z rap for $500

This will definitely be a nightmare snow forecast since there is no antecedent cold air mass we're essentially relying on dynamic cooling in a likely narrow band of intense deformation. Probably can't really call it a cold conveyor belt, maybe more of a TROWAL. Someone is going to get a good thumping with intense rates but very thread the needle and probably better will be picked up by hi res later tomorrow. We hope. Lol

The amount of variability right now is laughable. Normally would have advisories or watches posted by now. My forecast is 0-8in. Should verify nicely. I'm in between every OP model suite, more centered on EPS and GEFS, and hi res either is a miss nw or se. Lol. This is about as good as the Xmas Storm watching it unfold on models.

ILX totally discounting almost any snow potential across the area and barely touched on the south trend in some model guidance. Though the far nw solutions can't be denied and are definitely within realm of possibilities I would have touched more on snow potential.

Well it's model madness for my area. 12k nam misses me barely to nw with snow. 3km nam hits me but gradient very close. Gfs a miss well east. Hrrr not only misses with snow but also rain, lol. Euro is pound town. So at this point I have no clue.

Yes please and thank you. But I'm sure by tomorrow it will be a miss se. Lol. Funny how days ago this was a miss se, then trended to a miss nw, now probably trending back to what it originally showed. Oh meteorology. How I love/hate you.

I know you can't trust hrrr at this range but you see how far south it has the sfc low? Lol

Riding the gfs. Will be my "Baum" lock of the week

Normally I would agree but with such a strong low and such a big slug of moisture it should be able to wrap plenty of precip into the deformation axis of the cyclone on the "cold" side of the system.

Kuchera maps will probably be more accurate for snowfall on this system as temperatures are very marginal and not sure we will even see 10:1 ratios.

Man this one going to be painful. It will be close. Either will be on sharp edge of brutal snowfall gradient or in the cold rain with raging snowstorm just to nw. Not liking my position on this one. Nw IL folks and you Chicago folks have a shot. Very powerful lows like this always end up more nw and always have a big slug of waa. Definitely a nail biter

WPC thinks rain for mostly everybody apparently

Definitely step in the right direction but not enough to benefit a good chunk of the subforum. Would make a lot of our Iowa folk happy. But us in IL would like a shot

I don't like this new trend. Lol. Man I'm tired of cold rain. Just a smidge south would be great.

Next closest thing to make it go high would be a 60 hatched for wind. 10 hatched tornadoes is only enhanced worthy. No hail probability makes a risk go high. Leitman is doing the outlook tonight and I don't forsee her going high. I can see the moderate risk expanding. IMO we need better instability for a high risk for wind. The wind fields are there for a major event but there are some concerns with possible inversion and whether moisture and therefore instability will be sufficient. Will be a lot of nowcasting.