Radtechwxman

Any new wind data from recon?

Although satellite continues to look impressive, seems like southern eyewall is struggling a bit on radar. Shear and dry air may be impacting it. But I think intensity will maintain till landfall or maybe increase a bit more.

Wonder if they're going to bump winds up because of their readings in eastern eyewall

On radar it has opened in sw quadrant again. But satellite presentation continues to improve

Few things I noticed. Eyewall lightning continues signifying intensification not done. Also western part of storm looks rather dry but that's also far from radar so hard to say. Might be getting influenced more by trough.

Will hurricane hunters be in there every hr now till landfall?

Closed off eyewall now could be troubling. May really allow Helene to fully take off till LF

Lightning has really ramped up in northern eyewall. Tell tale sign of intensifying or possibly RI hurricane.

I think the loop current and the positive trough interaction are doing their thing. Helene continues to organize with a better looking CDO, more defined core and eye popping. I think there's a decent shot we get a cat 4 landfall. Maybe even mid cat 4. But 130 I think is very achievable.

NHC not backing down on cat 4 landfall. But mentioning it's lacking inner core. If that doesn't develop overnight I don't see this hitting cat 4. Surprised they didn't mention the dry air issues plaguing it all day.

It's been the same one all day spiraling around its core. It's trying to mix it out. Think it will be able to shake it off? Not a Tswift reference

Wouldn't that double structure support an EWRC happening? That will definitely make it tougher for RI to occur

Dry air intrusions seem to be the story this season. That dry air made it into the core and really did a number on Helene getting organized. Francine struggled its whole life with dry air. Never could shake it. The high octane ocean and favorable outflow aloft will still support intensification but if the dry air can never fully be purged Helene won't hit her ceiling. Probably more a low end 3 maybe mid 3 at best. Regardless still will be devastating impact. Curious to see what will happen tonight over Loop Current.

Not sure if most of you realize that RI wasn't supposed to start till tonight into Thurs. The dry air definitely through a wrench in the core organization. However it's about to enter the very high OHC and even better upper atmospheric conditions.

You know what model has a terrible handle on this now? Hrrr. Can't say I'm surprised. Probably will catch on tomorrow.

Just wondering if by then the forward speed will be too fast to take full advantage of the good environment

Still trying to mix out dry air and organize core so intensification will be gradual till then

NHC now forecasting a cat 4 landfall so guess that answers my question of dry air concerns. Ha

That dry air definitely made it into the COC. Degraded it more than I anticipated. Curious what hurricane hunters will find intensity wise. Wondering when Helene will really take off.

Still a good bit to work out on northern edge of COC. The better environment tonight should help really accelerate things.

Looks like maybe attempting to close off an eyewall finally

Curious what impact this dry air wrapping into circulation now will have on Helene. Can really see it eroding clouds on visible satellite wrapping into the COC. Could lower ceiling a bit if it takes a while to mix out.

How likely do you think that is? I mean it does have Loop Current and great atmospheric conditions tonight. We saw what Ian did overnight even after crossing western Cuba.

Definitely could have impacted it some. Should see Helene really take off later today and tonight.

May stay steady state a bit while it tries to mix out that dry and reorganize its inner core