Radtechwxman
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Everything posted by Radtechwxman
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Gfs being consistently north and wetter vs euro being south and drier. Who's going to win? Sadly feel like it might be Euro
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I'm curious if a more amped solution like gfs will verify. Aloft it was an impressive system. Low would take off more if confluence was less east. However with neg tilt and closed off 500mb low it still had a nice deformation band. Other models are more neutral tilt and shear it out faster. Someone near STL going to get a big ice storm. Would be nice to see euro trend towards gfs
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0z gfs definitely stronger and nw. Major sleet/ice storm around STL. Huge snows north of there. Would be nice to see euro on board with this. Pretty clear why 0z gfs is more robust. Trough goes neg tilt and low closes off and doesn't open up till well east of here.
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If that happened it definitely would allow for a northern push 0z icon seems a bit more realistic
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0z nam is interesting. Lol. I'm not trusting nam till Sat minimum
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I think it should be sampled for 12z runs tomorrow if I'm not mistaken
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Euro has been more back and forth. System should get sampled tomorrow. Still don't like where I'm sitting.
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Lol watches stretch west to east just one county to my south. Probably will end up with advisory here but watch or warning possible depending on trends next few days.
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I would love 18z nam to verify. But it isn't in its good range yet. But definitely something to watch
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This winter has been so lame. I'm ready for a good snowstorm so full send. Ha. But thinking heaviest swath will be near or south of I72.
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In Peoria here as well! I share your same concerns. We are sitting uncomfortably close to that northern gradient. Any south shift and we may see little to no accumulation. Nam seems to be an outlier for now on south placement and it's also its long range so I wouldn't fully trust it. However, it can sniff things out sometimes so definitely uneasy.
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I would be very content with 12z gfs
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You and me both. I hate dry and cold. Would like a nice snowpack to look at.
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God I wish. Lol. When was last time icon was right?
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You and me both. You're sitting pretty good. I72 corridor going to get a good hit. Cutoff near I74 is brutal. If it shifts south at all I may get nothing. 12z nam is brutal.
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Definitely don't like where I'm sitting with this one. Too close to northern gradient. If it comes in weaker and south it's game over. But any north push will be very beneficial. Have a feeling north trends from yesterday will be back to weak and south today. System gets sampled tomorrow so hoping that helps models
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That cutoff on north end is BRUTAL. That high strength and position will be critical
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Yeah definitely getting skewed on kuchera maps esp with mixed precip totals
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0z gfs an improvement over 18z for high placement and strength. Allows precip shield to get more north. Not as good as euro yet but baby steps
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Ride or die with icon
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Not a blizzard by any means but definitely going to see some brisk winds in the deformation band. Pretty tight isobars between that 1040 high and around 1000mb low.
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That 18z gfs run was brutal. Going to be a long few days of back and forth. That sfc high needs to chill. Pun intended. 18z gefs rolling out now with decent amount of north tracks
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Pretty good bump north with sfc low on 18z euro but snow band didn't get much more north. Brutal cutoff
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Definitely some north members but most seem to be south
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Anyone know what euro ensembles are showing?
