Radtechwxman

Are they finding any higher winds along with these big pressure drops?

That is true. As far as intensity and surge impacts but the more west it goes the more rural areas the core of hurricane will impact. However the surge and extreme rainfall impacts will still be impactful well east into more populated areas.

Seems like some hurricane models and other hi res guidance are favoring a more west track before a north turn now which would keep it away from more dense population and hit more rural areas.

That is a massive drop from last recon mission. Im guessing winds will be upgraded to 150-155 if they get data to support it which I think they will.

https://x.com/pettuswx/status/1982527974378217764?s=49

IR satellite imagery really starting to ramp up again. Cloud tops rapidly cooling especially in the southern part of the circulation.

Very fascinating stuff. Thank you for sharing

I wonder why wind isn't responding with such big pressure drops and a relatively small storm. Kind of odd. If it was bigger or actively going through EWRC would make more sense.

So do we think ewrc is trying to start or not? Sure looks like it on radar.

That's what I'm thinking and why I think RI halted for now. This would be bad timing for EWRC because it would have time to intensify again before landfall and expand the wind field.

Im just not overly impressed by this setup and definitely not feeling as aggressive as spc is. Low deepens quick Tues and is well into occlusion process by Wed. Low also very far north. There is good flow over warm sector but feel like sfc winds will tend to veer without secondary low development. Models look very linear right now and morning convection could definitely be an issue esp with northward extent. It does look more cellular further south and there is some orthogonal nature to shear vectors off CF. But the more south you go, the more removed from the low you are. Just not 100% on board with a big tornado threat yet.

Thank you! Glad someone has a brain. Apparently chasers need spotter training again. Saw multiple reputable chasers calling obvious gustnadoes tornadoes.

It's a shame dew points mixed out so bad. Hrrr modeled that well. Moisture so shallow and we mixed pretty deep today. Went from 55 dew earlier to 44. Showing recovery possible last second. Feel like best tornado threat will be I72 south and likely I70 south. Hoping line organizes more so I can at least get damaging winds.

And gfs and euro both were only showing temps around 70. That's definitely underdone

Well this system was an epic bust and one next week misses way south. So over winter. Bring on spring.

It did come down nicely here. Good rates. Relatively low visibility. If it was moving slower we easily could of got 2-4in.

Come on 0z gfs! My only hope. Ha

Yeah you guys are in for a great storm. Mad jelly

18z euro looks like hot garage

Getting nice rippage with WAA snow. Hrrr had it missing me. Wish it was moving slow because could dump a lot fast. Hoping maybe a sign we will get surprised tomorrow.

Wish that could be IL but apparently never going to happen this winter

That euro run was trash. Crazy we are so close to event and models all over the place. How did euro do with last storm?

I thought the exact same thing. Maybe moisture getting robbed by convection. I definitely don't dig the look of gfs for me.

I'm happy for the potential for you Michigan folks. But wish I could squeak in one good snow. Waa snows definitely look to be non event here. My only hope is the wraparound.

Well the rich get richer on 12z hrrr. Miss waa snow and deformation band takes a while to change over here. Would be nice to catch a break for one system. Need it se a bit more but that's unlikely.