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LVblizzard

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Everything posted by LVblizzard

  1. LVblizzard
    Ehhh we got them back in 2021. I think it’s even now.
  2. LVblizzard
    I will not fall for the HRRR again I will not fall for the HRRR again I will not fall for the HRRR again I will not fall for the HRRR again I will not fall for the HRRR again I will not fall for the HRRR again
  3. LVblizzard
    Hate to say it but it’s pretty useless to look at globals this close to the storm. Mesos and CAMs are more reliable at this range.
  4. LVblizzard
    NAM and RRFS are on their own with the extreme mid level warm air surge. None of the other globals or mesos agree with pushing sleet to the Poconos.
  5. LVblizzard
    Euro just came in with an absolute nuke.
  6. LVblizzard
    That too…reflectivity is bright and CC shows a clear boundary from roughly Ada to McAlester. Still means the NAM was too warm which has me injecting some hopium.
  7. LVblizzard
    Look at mPING as it relies on actual observations, not the colors on radar maps. It currently has sleet up to Ada, OK, right in line with the Euro and HRRR. It does appear the NAM was too warm at the mid levels, though, as it had sleet up to I-40 where it’s currently all snow.
  8. LVblizzard
    It’s getting that sweet recon data. But the GFS is still the GFS. It’s more likely than not to let us down in the end. I’ve seen this movie too many times before.
  9. LVblizzard
    That includes sleet. The WB maps show a disastrous outcome with sleet getting well north of I-80 and just 6” for the city.
  10. LVblizzard
    RRFS gets the sleet line to Scranton. Meanwhile none of the other mesos (minus the NAM) get it past the Lehigh Valley. Quite the battle we have here.
  11. LVblizzard
    Wow so basically no melting this week. Yeah this will stick around for awhile.
  12. LVblizzard
    You’re like 15 miles south of me. How much is still left there? I’ve been away since Monday.
  13. LVblizzard
    I’m literally 1/4 mile south of I-78. Good thing weather doesn’t follow interstate highways like that!
  14. LVblizzard
    3km NAM literally has my house right on the line for hours. Route 22 is basically the dividing line between a big storm and a bust.
  15. LVblizzard
    And it didn’t follow…still torches the mid levels. 6-10” for the area then sleet. Just 20-25 miles more south with that line and we’re back though. This isn’t over by any means.
  16. LVblizzard
    HRRR has a warm bias at the surface…which is strange because it’s often too cold in the mid levels.
  17. LVblizzard
    HRRR doesn’t get the mix line past the Lehigh Valley. Stalls it at southern Lehigh County then retreats towards the turnpike. We’ll see if the NAM follows.
  18. LVblizzard
    That’s all snow here so I’d be pretty happy with that. I don’t mind changing over to sleet as long as we get dumped on with snow first.
  19. LVblizzard
    Part of me thinks he’s just bitter that the storm trended to a sleet/ice storm for his area and now he’s rooting on an enormous north trend to spite the rest of I-95 too.
  20. LVblizzard
    My call is already lower than the 12-18” that the other two big pages (EPAWA and LVWA) have. Getting just 6” would be a massive failure.
  21. LVblizzard
    Went 10-16” for the Lehigh Valley on my page yesterday. Sticking to that tonight. We cannot have another jump north after that 18z suite though. That would cause me to really rethink things and I HATE busting high.
  22. LVblizzard
    Euro isn’t bad at all. Actually bumps up totals a bit for the Philly area. However the LV/Poconos don’t get as big of a thump.
  23. LVblizzard
    New York City 11 Boston 17 Philadelphia 9 Washington DC 8 Hartford 16 Albany 16
  24. LVblizzard
    Notice the trend of the weaker primary…that may end up making the difference for a lot of people.
  25. LVblizzard
    Northern extent of the mix line comes down to two things: 1. Snowfall rates - heavier snow = slower progression northward 2. Formation of the secondary low - models have been killing off the primary sooner since last night which is what we want to see for a snowier solution
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