LVblizzard

18z NAM is still an outlier with warm mid levels, but it took a step towards the colder solutions. It actually gets snow west of the Delaware this time. That’s all I really wanted to see from it.

Crazy how models differ so much with the snow/sleet line at the onset of precip. The NAM has it pretty much entirely in NJ while the Euro and HRRR give the Lehigh Valley plowable snow. 18z NAM is coming out now, hopefully it’ll give us a clue.

Canadian is a disaster. Whiffs storm 1 next week and nearly does the same for storm 2.

I have to be somewhere at 11 so I’m hoping the roads aren’t too bad at that time. I’m able to take main roads for 95% of the drive which should help a lot.

GFS/Euro ensembles still love the Tues-Wed threat with another signal for Thurs-Fri appearing right on its heels.

Oh man…the 0z Euro is a dream run for the I-78 corridor. Ultra long duration storm starting late Monday night and not ending until Wednesday morning. Stripe of 20+” from Harrisburg to Allentown to NYC.

Two keys to this setup: 1. We need the energy to be vigorous and consolidated. The 0z GFS, as we just saw, has a few weak pieces of energy running around instead of one big, strong one. The Canadian also does this to a lesser extent. If the energy doesn’t consolidate this either misses to the south or gives us a weak light snow event or two. 2. The high to the north needs to keep pressing down. Let’s say we have our strong shortwave to the southwest, but the high trends much weaker. This causes the storm to be another front end snow to ice/rain event. Not only does a strong high to the north keep temperatures cold, but it enhances the thermal gradient which increases lift and makes the snow heavier, despite a sfc low that’s not as strong. This is why PDII was such a big storm with a low that never really bombed out like most KU storms.

18z GFS with a long duration event next Tues-Wed. Snow starts Tuesday morning and doesn't fully exit the area until Wednesday afternoon. Heavy snow misses to the south but it still gives us 6-12".

This was the first storm I remember tracking on the models. I used the PSU E-Wall site and looked at the GFS and NAM religiously for a week leading up to the storm. Being in 7th grade at the time I hardly knew what I was looking at but I knew it would get pretty crazy. My school ended up closing for that entire week after the storm as the sheer amount of sleet was very difficult to clean up.

Euro ensembles are still loving next Wednesday. If we’re going to get a big one this winter, next week looks like our best chance.

I basically live right on 78. I can hear it from my house. I expect Thursday to be very messy. Will probably stay home that day, at least until the afternoon.

18z GFS/Euro got colder for Sat-Sun too. Could be another fairly significant ice event.

And then gives us a HECS next weekend too. This is a seriously amazing pattern setting up and all the models generally agree.

Euro ensembles are honking LOUD for next Wednesday. Ensemble mean is 3-6” for the region which is pretty insane for something 9-10 days out. Last time I can remember a storm signal like this was Jan. 2016.

Turns out that stuff behind the main area of precip is actually sleet.

Looks like just under an inch in Allentown. I wonder if that stuff to the west will get us to an inch.

Really wish the KDIX radar didn’t decide to shit itself 3 hours ago. Better now than during the upcoming pattern I guess…

0z mesos are VERY aggressive tomorrow in the LV/Poconos. Some have 2” down to I-78. The HRRR is really the only one that has almost nothing in Allentown.

Meanwhile the Euro is cutter city for the next two weeks until we finally get something decent on the 15th.

Little bit of a storm signal for Super Bowl Sunday on the 0z models. It'll all depend on how much the cold air can push south after the midweek cutter.

Looks like a gradient pattern setting up on the models for the next couple weeks. Unfortunately it appears the Philly area will mostly remain south of the gradient. Maybe some front end thumps in there.

Snowpack is dwindling here. Down to just an inch or two in the shadiest spots. I imagine Friday’s rain will be the dagger for what’s left of it.

Reports from other locations are saying that the temperature is dropping rapidly in the squalls. So it would probably be rain to snow.

Squalls look to be breaking up unfortunately. I really wanted to see some snow because we might not get any for a couple more weeks.

KABE got down to -8 last night. Coldest night here that I can remember.