The fact that this changed so much from 12z to 0z means that this is far from wrapped up. It all depends on how that piece of the PV behaves. If it stays too strong or dives too far SE this goes back to being cold and dry.
We only want it as far south as possible if it drops west of the Great Lakes. If it’s over the lakes or the northeast it suppresses our storm to the south.
NAM with 2-4” too. Not sure how to feel about this one. WAA can often overperform but at the same time we tend to get a pesky warm nose keeping down totals. Feels like it always goes one way or the other.
0z GFS/Canadian miss to the south for 2/20 but not by much. Potential is still there. We just need the flow to amplify without a super strong high pushing everything to the south.
Latest HRRR came north and now has at least something in the Lehigh Valley. C-1” as opposed to nothing in its previous runs. Plus I just refreshed KDIX and there are some weak echoes starting to appear around here. So it’s probably not going to be a nothingburger bust at least. Not really looking good for anything more than an inch though.
Found a spot to watch in downtown Philly last night then partied on Broad Street. Took me 20 minutes just to go half a mile to get on the Schuylkill afterwards but it was completely worth it. What a night.
0z NAM brings back the Tuesday threat with plowable snow up to the turnpike. 18z Euro and RGEM also looked much better. Don’t write this one off yet! I doubt it trends back to a big one but we could still get some decent snow out of this.