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LVblizzard

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Everything posted by LVblizzard

  1. LVblizzard
    We really want the confluence to be stronger and the high to stick around for longer. That will give us the long duration blizzard we all want.
  2. LVblizzard
    The northern stream feature on that Euro run was likely much different from what most guidance is showing now. It has really trended west in the last 2 days.
  3. LVblizzard
    And that’s why it’s known as the GooFuS!
  4. LVblizzard
    February 2014 was like this. Still gave ABE 16”.
  5. LVblizzard
    Canadian is really the only 12z model that gets a prolonged period of sleet north of I-95. Euro and UKMET push it a little past Philly but it’s when the bulk of the precip is already done.
  6. LVblizzard
    IIRC the GFS never fully came on board either. A bit strange given how god-awful that model usually is.
  7. LVblizzard
    I’m in Vermont for some skiing and I noticed it was 12:30 so I got comfy in the lodge and got ready to watch the Euro come out. Instead I find out it’s delayed and who the hell knows when it’ll start to come out. This run better be good to make up for that.
  8. LVblizzard
    The 0z models tonight are what I’m really interested in. I believe that will be the first run with full sampling.
  9. LVblizzard
    Yeah this is exactly how a low should act when it encounters a strong arctic high…not plow into it like the UKMET does.
  10. LVblizzard
    Also the fact that the WAA thump is quite intense and the majority of the precip is done by the time the warm nose arrives.
  11. LVblizzard
    It doesn’t want to fully transfer the primary low at all. It just keeps going with it until it’s in upstate NY and pushes the high out of the way like it’s nothing. Not really buying that.
  12. LVblizzard
    I’ve noticed that the Canadian rarely agrees with the consensus. It’s usually way north or way south. This seems like one of those times it’s too amped. Haven’t seen any solutions remotely resembling it.
  13. LVblizzard
    The magic of a 1037 high in Quebec.
  14. LVblizzard
    I would be absolutely shocked if the mix line makes it past Philly. Even mixing to Philly seems unlikely with the sheer amount of cold air we’re working with.
  15. LVblizzard
    This is a true arctic airmass. I’m in Killington, VT currently. Wind chill got down to -20 on the mountain today. Not staying till the weekend but Saturday could get wind chills near -30. Just insane how cold it’s been, especially when you remember we’re technically still in a La Niña.
  16. LVblizzard
    The 12z Euro only did a partial phase and still pulled off a MECS. The only thing we can’t have is those two pieces staying entirely separate. Literally any interaction and we get at least a SECS.
  17. LVblizzard
    Probably more. It wasn’t done yet at the end of the run.
  18. LVblizzard
    When the ensembles disagree with the OP that is a major red flag. OP is most likely out to lunch.
  19. LVblizzard
    That has more to to with the TPV splitting and digging more west than the energy in the southwest.
  20. LVblizzard
    That is a ridiculous amount of sleet for VA. Shoveling 1 inch is bad enough…7 inches would be torturous.
  21. LVblizzard
    Overall a good 0z suite. Still a lot of work to do to iron out details. We probably won’t have a good handle on this until Thursday morning at the earliest.
  22. LVblizzard
    I’ve seen this before. The models like to troll us like this. By Thursday they will all show entirely different solutions again.
  23. LVblizzard
    With an airmass this cold we really only need like .7” or .8” liquid to see a foot. This will be high ratio fluff.
  24. LVblizzard
    Now do the AI GFS which has inexplicably gone the opposite direction lol.
  25. LVblizzard
    Huh? 12z GEFS mean came noticeably more north.
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