USCAPEWEATHERAF

Today's update is a short appeal in the overall envelope of winter solutions. Today's neutral ENSO conditions update supports an average to slightly above average snowfall for all of New England. Again we should have a much better handle towards the first several weeks of November on what the ENSO pattern should be like. Eastern and Western New England have equal opportunities for above average snowfall this winter, which is quite normal within strong neutral ENSO phases.

I think the overall large mean of storm tracks will favor an easterly progression. However, I have a hard time feeling confident in this prediction at this point in the early weeks of Fall. Honestly the heaviest snows of the season could favor areas of Northern New England as much as it favors eastern New England. Right now, the whole region is likely to experience normal to slightly above normal snowfall this winter, that is that snow falls between December 21st and March 21st will end up at normal or slightly to above average. Neutral ENSO conditions likely present this large level of unknowns.

Ray, are you favoring a neutral ENSO right now? Have your thoughts changed from earlier this summer?

Latest ENSO predictions by the CPC suggests at least a 55% chance for a neutral phase ENSO this winter into the Spring of 2020. Not really a big swing in equatorial Pacific Ocean SSTs anomalies. Snowfall could be above average in central New England, west of a PVD to BOS to AUG I-95 corridor points west. East of that corridor slightly above to above average snow is possible. That is my early thoughts. A neutral phased ENSO will lead to the central regions being favored for above average snowfall. If it was cold phase ENSO it would favor the western and Northern regions of the area, while the weak to moderate warm phase favors the coastal plain. At least that is my general knowledge. Someone like Will or Scott or Ray could let me know where I am wrong.

Right now there is a greater than 55 percent chance of neutral ENSO conditions this winter. This should favor above normal snowfall across most of central New England, with a tendency towards slightly above average snowfall for eastern New England and less towards normal across the northern and western parts of New England. Storm tracks should be favored more eastward then last winter, more so from 35N:75W to around 41N:69.5W as an average storm track location. Coastal plain of New England could see slightly above average to potentially above average snow. I would say the Outer Cape from CHH to P-town could see around 30-45" of snow, parts of the Cape from CHH west to HYA could see 40-55" and parts of the Cape from HYA westward over 60" of snow. So these numbers support slightly above to above average snowfall this winter.

What is this winter expecting? Does anyone know when a triple-phase storm is expected?

Was the winter of 2014-2015 considered a warm neutral ENSO?

For severe weather, June 2008 Hail storm, July 23rd, 2019 Tornado EF-1, 110mph winds. Winter events: combo of Winter 2004-2005, and 2014-2015, single event of FEB 8-9th 2013, microburst 2005 DEC 9th NOREASTER. Hurricane Season 2004, the discovery of Wunderground.com Dr. Masters' blog.

Thanks Kevin.

I am in Kevin,

I believe the second Atlantic Hurricane on the models is a threat but maybe heads out to sea as well.

I don't either, I gained a different perspective on destruction after the EF-1 tornado that lasted five minutes here in Harwich. The day without power. It was long enough without technology. I just hate that. I want to watch the Patriots.

The models this morning have been on point with that turn to the east right as he got off the Cape Hatteras area. He has swung way right recently but is gaining convective organization.

Scott, you want the destructive power of a hurricane? i am so happy he isn't coming close enough for hurricane-force wind gusts. I will take the heavy downpours and a few gusts to 45mph and call it a night. Less of a power outage threat.

Good luck changing the jet stream, it is more likely to get a winter storm west 75 miles than a hurricane 75 miles west. Tropics are more fragile atmospherically speaking.

haha

I have gained a new perspective on life. I am never wishing for disaster after the 200-yard wide five-mile touchdown of the EF-1 tornado we witnessed on July 23rd, 2019. I saw our outside furniture fly around in the backyard and our tall trees bend all the way over in the wind that had to be at least 110mph. It was an amazingly horrifying experience. I can't imagine what a 934mb hurricane would do to our area for a few hours. Dorian appears to be tightening up once again. He is developing very cold cloud tops in the eyewall.

HAHA

No they won't move the game, the storm is on Saturday morning, the game is Sunday night, I am talking about losing power, that is not something I want.

Not with the wind field like the models are showing, the strongest winds are near his center, indicative of a tropical cyclone.

Dorian stays fully tropical at that time he is down to 934mb

Keep him away, a monster with Dorian's track record is not a storm I want to mess with or take any chances with, I would take on Bob any day of the week, not a storm with Dorian's history, sorry, go away the big storm. We don't want you, I want to watch the Patriots win.

Let's keep him way the f east, no impacts.

The configuration of the gulf stream is weird as it juts northeast from the Outer Banks of North Carolina. It makes sense Dorian would intensify in that pocket was southeast of the benchmark, but closer to the benchmark it would weaken as the SSTs are cooler closer to ACK.

Dorian isn't going to impact us too badly, most of the models are way southeast, the exception is the NAM.