USCAPEWEATHERAF

Update August 12th, 2019: my sports predictions are coming for September 5th, 2019 I will post on my youtube channel, PSUWeatherNewbie, and the offtopic sports threads for the Patriots and the Celtics 2019-2020 season.

I actually have thought that the weather has been pretty damn active this summer, especially across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic in terms of severe weather and hot temperatures. I mean Cape Cod got three tornado touchdowns from a strong to intense EF-1 tornadoes. 110mph was the strongest winds the NWS survey team found.

I think it is safe as long as the ULAC stays with it and develops overhead.

We have invest-95L now. It is the wave in the Eastern Caribbean Sea.

WxWatcher, I don't think the wave is running into the shear, there is a large upper-level anticyclone over the wave axis and area of highest vorticity at the surface. This upper-level anticyclone will push and prevent the shear from interfering with the wave and its potential development. Satellite imagery suggests there is a surface trough or area of convergence in the low levels that are developing under the convection. Also, our tropical wave entering the Atlantic Ocean from the west African coastline is showing tremendous signs of a surface low present and it is spinning already with deep convection. Could see two tropical storms develop this upcoming work week. The eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave could be a long term threat to the Eastern USA.

I don't have the time or drive to do predictions for the next seasons in the NBA and NFL this weekend, with the importance of Red Sox games and the tropical weather heating up as the date for the average first hurricane is AUG 1st, so the climo peak is coming in another 5 to 6 weeks, I will be quite busy with the weather. I will have the predictions done before September 1st.

The 2019 Defending World Series Champion Boston Red Sox are now on pace to score 947 runs this season, eclipsing their totals from the last ten seasons of Red Sox baseball. They will be second to the 2003 Red Sox with the modern-day record of 966 runs scored the franchise record. Not even last year's Sox had that many runs scored, and in fact, it would be over 100 runs better. Last season, even with their amazing 108-54 record, their offense was never this potent, with breakout seasons by Bogaerts and Devers and average seasons by JD and another MVP caliber season by Mookie Betts who could score over 140 runs this season, this would make him the second Red Sox player ever to score that many runs in a single season, second only to the Greatest Hitter of Red Sox history, Mr. Ted Williams. He actually did it several times.

The 2019 Defending World Series Champion Red Sox are on pace for the second-most runs scored in a season since their 2003 team had 966 runs, they are on pace for 942 runs scored.

My experiences with extreme weather in the past have been hard to come by. Living on the outer Cape Cod, our chances at tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. However, the greatest chance at severe thunderstorms and including supercells occur only during the months of July and August. Now, why is this important? During the months of July and August the water temperatures in the ocean around Cape Cod, except to the southeast, have been warming substantially and are way above average for this time of the year, this is leading to temperatures over 75F surrounding Cape and Islands, which allow the soupy presence of dew point air temperatures over 70F on the Cape. This leads to some presence of instability, especially with a south wind. Early on the morning of Tuesday, July 23rd, 2019, I woke up several times in the morning around 6 am and 8 am tracking the thunderstorm complex that moved through the Cape and weakened with some light showers passing through. As the time approached 8:30 a.m. Long Island had several water spouts develop south of the area over the open ocean as velocity couplets were present with radar indicated presence of water spouts. They were moving towards the ENE at about 30-40mph. What alerted me to a rather elevated and perhaps higher chance at severe weather, at least chance of damaging winds, was the extreme presence of high wind shear values in all significant levels of the atmosphere. These levels were SFC-1km, SFC-6km, and SFC to 3km wind shear numbers. Effective Bulk Shear of 60-65 knots over the Cape stayed there all day long as the front was slow to move southeastward off the coast. Instability nosed into the area just as the cluster of storms was nearby, which turned into a meso-low influenced supercell that was moving from Falmouth, MA to Harwich, MA and Chatham, MA. The Supercell and attendant mesocyclone moved through the mid Cape region, after passing north of Martha's Vineyard with gusts over 69mph, Kalmus, MA reached a gust of 90mph as the supercell matured even more and got more intense with the velocity scans showing an intense couplet that got tighter as it reached the Yarmouth, MA region as the radar first indicated a tornado on the ground. A section of radar technology that was recently developed for tornado confirmation was the correlation coefficient. This technology can detect debris in the air other than precipitation falling. This CC radar indicated debris lofted into the air over Yarmouth, which wa likely the Cape Sands Inn roof that was lofted into the air from the touchdown of the first EF-1 tornado that peaked at 110mph over Yarmouth and Dennis, while it lifted back into the Mesocyclone. Then minutes later the tornado warning was issued for Harwich and most of the lower Outer Cape, where the second tornado touchdown around 12:10 pm or later winds gusted over 110mph in my backyard as the circulation likely passed just over the forest of trees in my backyard. There were two distinct wind bursts that occurred on my street. The first wind burst occurred at much weaker state, about 30-40mph winds, this was winds out of the southwest, than the second more intense burst was likely the rear flank downdraft or the backside of the tornado circulation that passed northwest of my house. These winds did the most damage in the area as they likely gusted over 110mph as we lost a lot of trees and some just snapped in half. Parts of Harwich Center, MA about a mile down the street, suffered complete devastation. Road closures, trees on homes, trees snapped completely in half with completely developed matured trees just snapped completely in half. Brooks Park has a large forest of large healthy trees, it looked like a plane dropped an atomic bomb was released and detonated at 20 feet high off the ground and blew up the area. Half the trees were completely snapped in half. The town center area suffered utter tree damage that no one has ever seen before here. It was chaos. The emotions were just filled with utter sadness. Fires engulfing homes, gas leaks and evacuations as homes and streets were deemed uninhabitable. We had 18 minutes of lead time, my family and I went into the basement for the first in our lives as the winds occurred over our house. Debris started flying and my family and I headed into the basement. It was the scariest moment of my life. Life is starting to get back to normal, we gained power back around 1 pm to 3 pm yesterday afternoon. Almost a day after the tornado, we thank the local emergency and power officials for a tremendous job done so far. Thanks for listening and taking the time to read my post.

Sorry, everyone, my sports update will happen by this weekend, and my account of the Cape Cod two EF-1 tornado touchdowns will occur by Thursday evening. Stay tuned!

I will post everything I am going to argue for a Patriots perfect season including winning the Super Bowl, and why with a certain player or two, the Patriots could have the most dynamic WR set in the NFL and perhaps Brady's career, even better than the Moss led corps of 2007. Wednesday will be the latest to this post.

Perfection happens, just not enough for odds to favor such an event. However, you got to admit, we are due for a big hurricane event. The deepest waters are essentially in the western Caribbean Sea and the waters just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the Puerto Rico Trench where depths are nearly 28,000 feet below the surface of the ocean. There are warm enough waters in the Gulf Stream at a fairly deep depth. However, the waters south of the South Shore of New England, and the Islands of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard are indeed quite shallow, however, for the most part, there are exceptions like Tropical Storm Jose, but for the most part, the forward speed of the hurricanes that reach SNE coastline, are too fast for upwelling to even be considered a negative action.

Oh, I am not saying they have, just now with the way the Oceans are, the coastline south of SNE coast is getting warmer on average, this season it is quite warm already and we have yet to reach climo peak.

Invest 94L is the system east of the central Bahamas by about 90-104 miles. It is developing a better-defined center of circulation in the lower levels. Convection is getting better organized and it is over very high SSTs and high OHC. Also of note, the shear is still too high for rapid development, but the SHIPS diagnostic shear forecast is expected to be favorable for a three day period over 29.5+C water temperatures. Huge potential here, we need to watch carefully.

Latest forecasts show the development of invest 94L, designated this as such due to the fact it is an area of interest the NHC has designated for a more thorough investigation with models and other observations are allowed to take place. The designation is assigned a number 90 through 99 and then is recycled through and through. Since the areas are only investigation numbers, they would rather recycle through the same numbers than confuse everyone about them. 94L is a system about 100 or so miles east of the central Bahamas. People traveling to the Bahamas, Florida and then the rest of the immediate Southeast US coast, need to watch the potential progress and development if it occurs with this system. Impacts could be felt in the Bahamas as soon as tomorrow afternoon and along the Florida coast as soon as Tuesday morning. Please stay safe, that is and shall always remain your one and only priority in these situations as your possessions can be replaced, your life or the life of a loved one cannot.

I believe since ENSO will be transitioning from weak El Nino state to a neutral and then weak La Nina state throughout the hurricane season, we could see a slow August and then a large ramp up from the end of August through November. I believe the East Coast is at risk, as the potential for near home activity is higher than average. Especially with a rather dry MDR and the tropical Atlantic Ocean west of 60W longitude, the favored areas for significant tropical cyclone activity of Major Hurricanes category three or higher landfalls looks to be NC, SC, FL Gulf of Mexico and parts of the Mid-Atlantic states. I believe there will be a threatening major potentially category four hurricane making landfall on the Northeastern Us sometime late August through Labor Day into the first few weeks of September given the highly warm western Atlantic Ocean right now and expected throughout the rest of the season, as oceanic temps reach the low-80s off the Cape and Islands by the end of AUG. A situation in which a cold front stall of the NC coastline into the Bahamas leads to a surface low developing in the Bahamas region and then heading up the East Coast, peaking as a major cat four hurricanes and making landfall on the SNE south coast is something I see. A stronger version of Hurricane Bob 1991, looks like a threat.

Sports update will come after Wednesday this upcoming new work week, I have to watch the latest forecasts for the early week period as a hybrid storm could bring significant impacts to SE New England Monday night into Tuesday night. Right now models showing a surface low around 1004mb or lower impacting the region with widespread wind and rain issues. Could become significant if given time over water.

There is a 700mb vort northwest of Puerto Rico and north of Hispaniola by about 100-140 miles, there is also a surface low developing presently, with a low-level circulation developing. There is a strong hint of this occurring by watching the low-level cumulus field.

I will be working on my predictions for the NFL and NBA upcoming seasons the next few days. I will have the final products by the end of the weekend. Thanks!

Anyone think there is something to see in the area of activity just east of Barbados, like a couple of hundred miles, there is some semblance of a partial low-level circulation present.

There is a system developing deep convection over the NW Bahamas, any chance this becomes a storm?

Does anyone know if that wave is legit off the west coast of Africa?

Thanks for the reply Windspeed.

Big tropical AEW is over the eastern Atlantic Ocean now, showing rotation in the mid-levels and within the convection, deep convection has developed with the wave. Anyone if this has a chance to develop?

The Tornado Chronicles are a new novel project that I will be working on in the future.