USCAPEWEATHERAF

Hello southern New Englanders, this evening update is about the latest guidance showing a potential pattern change storm erupting in the 5-10 day range. This storm signals the erupt change to a colder and maybe perhaps more stable pattern towards Halloween and the change into the month of November. Deep cold is on tap for after the next week. Stay Tuned! Winter is still around the corner.

Models in the long range, are beginning to show a winter like pattern beginning late OCT, sometime after the 27th. In the next two weeks of OCT, warm air is settling in after our mid-week miller B storm center offshore of MVY sometime WED night. Cold air will dump into the central Northern CONUS north of 40 north latitude.

The next four days present an unique challenge for weather forecasters. Models present a blocked upper-level pattern which ensues at the surface as well. A large ridge in Atlantic Canada will keep the coastal low pressure blocked at the surface and rather stalls or meanders off the coast near the New England storm benchmark location or 40N:70W. Winds will increase after 12z tomorrow into 12z Friday, they should peak between 55-70mph winds at the coastline between 12z Thursday and 12z Friday. Heavy rainfall over 5" should be a common number when this storm exits Saturday night/Sunday morning. Be prepared for a raw few days from I-95 corridor eastward will be the main region impacted from eastern CT to Eastern ME.

Where do we find the snowstorm records from 2000 to 2010 for New England?

Today radar imagery shows Ocean Effect precipitation is developing and falling over the Outer Arm of Cape Cod this early afternoon. Radar shows flow is out of the north to northwest with rather cooler air mass moving over the low 60 degree ocean waters over the bay. Sprinkles and a few misty periods have developed. Radar image below shows this well.https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

It could go either way right now, which is why neutral is the right way to predict right now. Most winters are harsh in New England, very few are tame. Just the location varies.

Its nowhere near official at this point. I am leaning this way with the Neutral ENSO predicted by the CPC

Yeah, that was my bad. Just excited to point that out.

Oh, I was just posting something I found really interesting from the recent research I have been doing for winter nor'easters and how it impacts snow on Cape Cod, compared to most other non-snow events here. My prime location of focus is on Cape Cod, this is where my livelihood is focused and is impacted. My dad relies on my knowledge of the weather and as well as his customers.

The July 23rd, 2019 tornado on Cape Cod that occurred in my town of Harwich, wasn't the only severe weather event this past summer, another hail event with stones about quarter sized occurred on June 22nd, 2019. That was cool.https://twitter.com/89Nich/status/1180108248122351616/photo/1

Latest guidance and weather data suggests the rain that was impacting the region this morning is out of the way now, but cloud cover should stay in control for most of the morning into the early afternoon, before some clearing occurs as a strong Canadian High builds in from the northwest. Tomorrow looks dry and cool, with highs in the lower to middle 50s and lows near 45F. Sunday looks similar with perhaps a stronger and warmer return flow as the high shifts to the east with a rather nice rebound temp wise into the upper 50s and lower 60s and lows again in the mid to upper 40s. Frost is possible the next few days across the interior of New England and the mountains of the area. Monday will feature a warmer day than the weekend as a front approaches from western NY. Temperatures will return into the mid to upper 60s maybe some locations nearing the lower to mid 70s perhaps for the last time until March, unless a period of Indian Summer reaches that mark again this winter season. Perhaps the next time we see temperatures in the mid 70s will be late April early May 2020. Monday will feature warm temps, but the return of high altitude cirrus clouds and then thickening clouds towards sunset and temps lowering no more than 60F in the overnight hours before the cold front passes through late Tuesday morning. Temperatures will peak in the morning and then fall dramatically throughout the day into the lower 40s into Wednesday morning. Wednesday through Friday appear to be the middle 50s for highs and lower to middle 40s for lows until the weekend features potential for another cold front that will bring rain showers and colder air for the weekend into the early week. Stay Tuned! We will likely see subtle changes in the coming days to the ten day forecast. - JWN Productions!

One huge impact factor for determining snowstorms of major magnitudes and snow that falls on the Cape and Islands is the Banana High Pressure, it is a real factor, more real than I imagined. It is present in all the big nor'easters for Cape Cod. No matter the intensity of the storm or high, the structure of the high is most important.

We did get jackpot from the December 20th 2010 Snowstorm.

Well once we get into November, there should be a better consensus with the ENSO conditions. Yeah I wasn't really using my area per se for the years.

I believe the pattern switches to favor eastern half of New England, I just don't know where the way above average snows occur just yet. I am favoring central to eastern interior New England, but it could end up on the coast by the first two weeks of November when I issue my official forecast. Question becomes, winters like 2014-2015 and 2004-2005 or is it closer to 2013-2014 and 2010-2011?

Attached is the guidelines for the different threat levels I will put in place for each snow event in the future from end of November through the first week of April 2020. Snowfall amounts and impacts forecast technique.docx

I see a slightly favored central New England snowfall this winter, with potentially for a higher above average snow over the I-95 corridor points eastward from eastern CT to ME.

List of names (TWC) issued for the 2019-2020 winter season: Aubrey - Bessie - Caleb - Dorothy - Ezekiel - Finley - Gage - Henry - Isaiah - Jacob - Kade - Lamont - Mabel - Nash - Odell - Pearl - Quincy - Ruth - Sadie - Thatcher - Upton - Veronica - Wyatt - Xandra - Yates - Zachariah

I am not aware of the October weather patterns and their correlation to potential winter weather impacts on patterns and what not, but the models are showing the pattern beginning to favor winter aspects we can expect in the winter months of New England weather. One such phenomenon is the Alberta Clipper/miller B development that the models show happening in the short term, snow in the Northern New England, mtns of Maine and then spotty showery activity for most of New England. The second such sign is the rapid build-up of cold arctic air masses in northern, central and southern Canada towards Mid-month. Then once upon the 19th of OCT the GFS leads a charge of cold air into the Northeastern CONUS and Great Lakes region. Perhaps our first or second episode of heavy lake effect snows.

Today, I have been sifting through the data and the guidance as of the 00z runs 10/3 and they are showing me the signs towards winter are upon us. New England weather is rather volatile the further we get from the summer and we get deeper into the season of Fall and then winter. As the holidays approach we are reminded how lucky we have been to live life as long as we have, and to have people who care about us in this world. As the holidays approach we are reminded of this constantly. As winter approaches abruptly and the only way Nature knows how, we get warning signs that the weather machine is ready to change gears and this is what I am seeing on the guidance this morning. There is rather strong agreement that a clipper will develop a secondary low off the coast of Cape Cod and Nantucket (ACK) as we head into the weekend. This system will carry a cold air mass on the north side and then northwest side and bring a change of temperatures to the region from the backside winds. Before that happens, we will experience spotty rain, until you are north of Concord, NH where rain will become more steady and then changeover to snow as one heads into the mountains of northern NH/VT/ME and the mountains of this region in the weekend. Saturday will be rather raw and spot showers at times, and then Sunday will be quite beautiful and rather chilly compared to what the last few days have given us. Also, another sign of the change in seasons is the rather rapid build-up of cold deep arctic air masses into northern Canada and then into the central and southern Canadian Prairies. This will begin to dive into the northern third of the US, above 40N from MT to ME as we head into the mid-month period and then the end of the month and beyond. Rather active weather pattern will begin to impact the US as multiple troughs will swing through the northern tier, this is rather common in neutral ENSO patterns. I will have another update after the 12z EURO if something changes in the guidance.

Dendrite, I want to be taken seriously in the weather world and in my own life, and it starts with making changes where I might be most of the time each day.

Honestly the only way I am willing to give power away is in a hurricane that happens in early August, or a Blizzard in January or February that can produce over 24" of snow.

While last winter was a bad one if you love snow events on the coast, but the more favorable winters of the past that featured this fast flow regime did not show with monster singular nor'easters/blizzard events, the winter of 2013-2014 featured several significant snow events. However, the progressive nature is the major difference between 15-20" events and the monster 30-40" events that are featured in a less compressive flow regimes, the Boxing Day 2010, Nemo 2013, Juno 2015 all seem to represent the meridional/slow flow events. These winters if my recollection is correct happened in weak El Nino events. As John mentioned, the global warming phenomenon is leading to less impactful ENSO events, and more consistent continental pattern events and sectional teleconnection pattern enhancers like the AO/NAO/PNA combinations. The certain pattern each factor is in, will help determine the outcome of each potential storm and the period it occurs within. With the potential for a warmer NW Atlantic Ocean, north of the Gulf Stream, we could perhaps have an enhanced baroclinic zone further northwest than the suppression year of 2013-2014 and perhaps a more eastward progression of said zone from the 2018-2019 winter track. I find the science behind the individual storms the major influences as to why my love for the weather puzzle has never diminished in the last 15 years I have been following it religiously. Perhaps a bigger devotion to the science of storm impact predictions will lead to a level headed approach to each individual event window.

Great input as always John. Looking forward for a better outlook on life, a more subdued enthusiasm for winter storms and more realistic approach to snowfall forecasts. This subdued fast flow events will likely preclude major nor'easters and blizzards potential, but may add to the more moderate snow event threat level. Perhaps no major NESIS like storms of 4 or 5 levels, but more so 2-3 level events. I would favor a more easterly track, where suppression might become a threat overall. This would depend greatly upon the smaller scale patterns like the PNA/NAO/AO combinations that present themselves on a week to week or every two week basis. We will not know until every event presents themselves. But the lack of overwhelming forces in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean regions where the ENSO is predicted, tells me that neutral phase is the way to go at this moment in time. Therefore an average winter seems appropriate at this time and juncture.