Search the Community
Showing results for tags 'november 18-19th'.
Found 1 result
-
Other than the news that my second novel is progressing well today, we have some weather to discuss. Teleconnections tell us what kind of 500mb pattern we can expect to shape up in that time frame. Normally 2-4 days, his medium to high confidence, 4-8 days is low to medium and 8+ days is usually low confidence for various reasons. Our snowstorm potential exists because two thirds of our pattern is showing a good sign for a snowstorm to impact the New England region. First we have to have a neutral or positive PNA, now if we have a +NAO, we normally need a +PNA, but if we have a -NAO we can compensate for having a neutral PNA, and if we have a -NAO/-AO combo than cold air will be present, but it could be over the plains and Great Lakes rather than over our region and we can expect rainy conditions as milder air pours over the region with the storm track to our west, perhaps producing inland cutters or inland runners. Now if we have a +PNA/-NAO/-AO combo of all three present, than we can pretty much assume an East Coast blizzard, why? 500mb patterns! At 500mb a +PNA index represents riding in the WNAM region and a trough in the ENAM region or Eastern North American region. Models are beginning to show colder air infiltrating our region by segments, the strongest segment comes around the 19th. Stay tuned as there is a lot to determine before I make a call that could cost my dad thousands of dollars.