LongBeachSurfFreak

Really, really dry at home on the south shore. Trees starting to drop leaves. It’s a little better on the uws. I’ll be shocked, but of course happy if we crack .10” tonight.

Absolute nightmare pattern for anyone involved in horticulture. Another predicted precip event bites the dust at the last minute. Upton removed amounts from my point and click

Yup, we’ll be lucky to see three drips

Amazingly Humberto caused more beach erosion and washovers then Dorian. This is due to swell periods being significantly higher (16 vs 12 seconds) which contain much more energy. Yesterday at Jones Beach I surfed some of the biggest waves since Bill. Easily some 12 foot sets. Today was smaller in the 8 foot range on the bigger sets. Most interesting to me was the refraction occurring off the Hudson Canyon yesterday which led to waves moving in from the west!!!!! And, please please rain!

East. Long period swells have the ability to bend and refract some areas will be bigger or smaller then expected. Really comes down to local knowledge in regards to what areas will and will not see bigger waves. If I were up in NE I would be looking for points.

12/10 Very warm fall incoming

Swells from Humberto were increasing this morning and should peak Friday with some 8 foot waves. It should rival Dorian in size as Humberto has a huge wind field this morning. The swell being generated now will arrive then as it’s takes time to travel. thats really the only interesting thing going on weather wise. I’m sure everyone’s sick of hearing me complain about having to water!!

Looks like another Bermuda threat. And another prolific swell producer for the east coast.

Could be the snowiest home on the east coast. Summers have got to be incredible too with temps barely above 80 even during heat waves

One thing I can agree with are warm falls. Above normal water temps and lack of sea ice causing a seasonal lag in the arctic for starters. After that the arctic will continue to get cold for the foreseeable future with the complete lack of solar insolation. So cold air will be available. It’s just a matter of the local pattern, can we access that cold air or not. I think we are safe as far as snow chances for a while. My thought is more of a boom or bust type of scenario. With some winters still providing epic periods and blockbuster storms.

Pretty blatant troll post. Do you have anything to back this up?

Takes some serious wind to snap a healthy London Plane. Over 80mph easy. After a great severe season this year we are in one the most boring stretches of weather I can remember. Days and days of watering ahead for me.

That’s exactly how you pull it off with soil moisture running so high to our SW. I’m really hoping for a pattern change ASAP

Verbatim that’s another gradient winter, displace that 100 miles north (which is nothing at this lead time) and it’s lights out for most on this sub forum.

Direction of movement is wrong and fetch size (for us) is relatively small. I wouldn’t call it a prolific swell producer unless that crawl materializes. That Bermuda zone is an excellent swell source for us though. Until it slows it’s going to be a run of the mill moderate swell something like 3.5’ at 11/12 seconds on the buoys

Another front another precip bypass. Not a drop of rain.

It will find a way to not rain in the city or on the island today. Getting dry

Hoping we are not headed into a long dry period after yesterday’s precip fail. I am life guarding this week at Robert Moses field 5. Finishing up season 21. Today has the feel of a dry nor’easter with sand blowing side ways down the beach. The surf isn’t huge but it’s definitely elevated.

Another day another precip miss for the city and the western island. Amazing how after bypassing us things go nuclear again for the east end and SNE.

Came pretty close to tropical storm conditions on the beaches of Long Island. Sheets of rain with winds sustained around 30 with gusts to the low 40s. Anyone now what the peak gusts and rain totals were at ACK? The amazing thing about Dorian was the lack of true large surf. The ENE moment meant all the captured fetch was moving away from LI/NE. We have seen much much larger waves with storms out by Bermuda. (Gert 99, Fabian 03 and Bill 08) Those storms were moving towards us before recurving and ejected huge swells due to captured fetch. Takeaway, direction of movement is more important then proximity

Gloria is my first weather memory. Watching LIPA remove the top of the big Norway maple in front of my house after it split and took down the power lines. I would have loved to have been a little older for that one. Probably the strongest winds during my life time with a brief period of 90mph gusts with what was most likely a sting jet caused be extra tropical transition.

This is definitely another Juan, which had some of the most prolific tree damage of any storm in the north east. Probably on par with 1938 in Ct and RI. Once you get over 90mph our trees just fall apart.

Hard to not go with that during the peak of the season. But there are definitely some factors adding to normal climo.

Getting some pretty solid gusts now at Jones beach estimating into the 30s. Waves are really starting to build now as well. Tonight’s 2am high tide should produce some washovers. I’m planning on coming down to get some shots

Pouring sideways at Jones beach. Still awaiting the main swell from Dorian