LongBeachSurfFreak

We haven’t had anything like that with trees in full leaf in a while. There aren’t nearly as many trees as pre Sandy/Irene on the island but I would still expect some tree damage and power outages. That’s if we get gusts to 60+. 60 seems to be the threshold.

Exactly. It’s the same thing every year. Model hugging. We need the rain desperately on the island. Another major precip fail last night and today. 0.0” in wantagh.

Finally some solid rain. If we get the coastal storm far enough Nw we end the flash drought as fast as it started. I think there are going to be some pretty serious coastal impacts with this storm. It’s been many years since we had a storm that produced large battering waves over many high tide cycles. Historically some similar events caused damage on par with hurricanes. The key with this setup is the fetch area. With the pressure gradient between the blocking high and coastal storm creating an anomalously long fetch aimed at the MA/NE.

The biggest impact from this storm will be erosion. We made it through last winter without even a moderate nor’easter. So area beaches will loose allot of sand that has built up. This will be in addition to some minor erosion that occurred with the last few hurricane swells.

I was driving on the southern state earlier today from out east and the drought is pretty severe in western Suffolk. Allot of trees that have turned brown which is generally a sign they are dead. The ones that have turned colors are just stressed. It wasn’t confined to just oaks which have their own problems but a number of species. Once to the Nassau border things greened up a bit.

Amazing, cannot buy a drop of rain on the uws. Everything misses in every way possible.

High temp records are a joke. The park is dry as a bone. Let’s do this.

This is exactly why I never call a storm a fish. I was out surfing the Lorenzo swell today and it was incredibly powerful. 16 second swell periods are extremely rare on the east coast. https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/ny-search-missing-teens-rockaway-20191001-4zqaogxpdzhullj3n72tqq4mky-story.html

That’s a thing of my happiest dreams. I’m fully completely sick of hoses and watering. 10 hours a day, day after day.

That would be amazing. We just do not need it all in a few hours as the ground will just run must of off. We need a long protracted synoptic rain event

The drought continues to intensify with another precip fail yesterday. We need a full scale pattern change or things could start to get serious. If your starting to see color change on trees it’s likely due to drought stress

Absolutely epic in every regard. Another storm that shows how far we have to go with intensity forecasts. Due to the fact that Lorenzo was moving north at the time of peak intensity it will send anomalously long period swell to the east coast. These long period swells (greater then 16 seconds) contain tremendous energy and are capable of producing beach wash overs. (And fun waves for those in the know)

another day another precip fail

Could be like the great gale of 1988 for them. That caused prolific damage.

I think they find lower winds (130sh) but a deeper pressure 930ish based on its size

.02” in wantagh. Another major fail

To be expected, though it looks like everyone gets at least some rain. At this point any rain at all is welcome.

Waves for days for east coast surfers. Factoring in swell decay it will not be huge, but some long period groundswell that can be focused at local spots should provide plenty of rideable surf. With the travel distance the long period swell 16+ seconds will have a chance to filter and arrive before the mid period swell. Something you see on the west coast with Southern Hemisphere swells. A rarity for the east coast

I really really hope we get some rain today, if we do not we are getting close to a damaging drought on the south shore we’re actual trees begin to die.

Yeah, that seems about right. The amazing thing about. Swell with periods of 15+ seconds is the amount of energy they contain. Their wave lengths are huge comparatively as is their speed. The start feeling bottom in deep water and bend and refract based on local bathemotry. So some breaks will seem relatively small and closed out, and other that can focus swell bigger. So your 4’ swell at 17 seconds quickly becomes a 10’ breaking wave. Points are the way to go on that type of swell. Lucky for me on of the best on the east coast south of RI happens to be clos

I was thinking it’s only a matter of time before they have a major hit. Sitting so close to the 26c line, with that line moving north. Kind of like Hawaii. Safe in the past, screwed in the future. And this thing is going to be a prolific swell machine for the entire North Atlantic.

Lorenzo should be a prolific swell producer. Huge size and lots of captured fetch before it fully recurves. Obviously there will be major swell decay but I think this one puts out some big numbers with 16/17 second swell for us next week.

There’s really not much to disrupt. This could easily open back up. If anything ever comes from Karen it will be after it passes PR

I believe it’s a combo of warmer local water temps and less arctic sea ice. There is not a lag in cold air build in the arctic which effects down stream weather.

.11” at both the park and here in wantagh. That’s absolutely not going to cut it. The only thing we have going for us to prevent a crippling drought is the lower evaporation rates and the end of the growing season.