LongBeachSurfFreak

12/10 Very warm fall incoming

Verbatim that’s another gradient winter, displace that 100 miles north (which is nothing at this lead time) and it’s lights out for most on this sub forum.

Direction of movement is wrong and fetch size (for us) is relatively small. I wouldn’t call it a prolific swell producer unless that crawl materializes. That Bermuda zone is an excellent swell source for us though. Until it slows it’s going to be a run of the mill moderate swell something like 3.5’ at 11/12 seconds on the buoys

Came pretty close to tropical storm conditions on the beaches of Long Island. Sheets of rain with winds sustained around 30 with gusts to the low 40s. Anyone now what the peak gusts and rain totals were at ACK? The amazing thing about Dorian was the lack of true large surf. The ENE moment meant all the captured fetch was moving away from LI/NE. We have seen much much larger waves with storms out by Bermuda. (Gert 99, Fabian 03 and Bill 08) Those storms were moving towards us before recurving and ejected huge swells due to captured fetch. Takeaway, direction of movement is more important then proximity

Gloria is my first weather memory. Watching LIPA remove the top of the big Norway maple in front of my house after it split and took down the power lines. I would have loved to have been a little older for that one. Probably the strongest winds during my life time with a brief period of 90mph gusts with what was most likely a sting jet caused be extra tropical transition.

This is definitely another Juan, which had some of the most prolific tree damage of any storm in the north east. Probably on par with 1938 in Ct and RI. Once you get over 90mph our trees just fall apart.

NYC bans anyone from entering the water. Including surfers. Canceling a long run body surf competition Saturday during premium conditions. Talk about over reactionary

Not a great swell producer for Long Island and New England. Its an issue of fetch more so then strength. The tiny size just isn’t going to cut it for creating much swell with periods over 12 seconds. Any captured fetch will be aimed towards the SE. I still think we see some swell with sets to maybe 5-6’ for south facing beaches. But with swell periods below 13 seconds beach washovers and erosion seems unlikely.

That’s bananas awesome!!! Super looking forward to it!!

The real challenge is for cheaper and more effective solar cells. I saw something on solar cells that were super thin like film and this flexible. They could hypothetically be wrapped around pretty much any object. That’s the holy grail of solar technology.

Another storm that would have been lost pre satellite and further not named even a decade or two ago. I’m all for better and more accurate science but when comparing seasons historically I believe storms such as Chantel should be left out.

Very true, that’s not cement by any stretch as it would have stayed open. Looking forward to a less injury filled 2019/20!

My moneys on that scenario right now. We need overall shear to relax and the atmosphere to moisten more as we get deeper into the heart of the season. Too many things need to be just perfect for this one.

That would be a beautiful thing. Let’s see if it can get through the sheer zone first.

To be excepted this time of year. The MDR is a shear fest currently. If we can get something into that Hatteras to Bermuda zone this season it’s game time.

Look at that path leading right to NE. Given the right circumstances this could be the year for a big one.

I call red mulch the “Burger King look”

All of which wouldn’t have been named pre satellite era. Regardless it’s an interesting trend when you include the early satellite era. Increasing SS temps should continue the earlier starts to the season. Eventually we could see seasons similar to the Wpac which essentially run year round.

Not a great track for a high end landfall. Trajectory has too much land interaction before landfall. Good for what I assume are poor people living in substandard housing. All of the money in India is in the major city’s with the rest of the country still relatively poor.

Wow, glad I checked this thread! Congrats guys! 4” of slop in NYC, schools closed for nothing!

Nice to see some positivity. I agree, while it may not be a blockbuster KU I think we get at least one solid warning event sometime between 2/15-3/15

At least there is some positive news on that front today. Still plenty of prime snow season left. The island especially does well late season when near shore water temps are cold. Which they will be after this next cold blast.

Agreed. The big arctic events In the city that set their record lows were big CAA events so it was likely similarly cold even at west Hampton

Wow, that’s more like an incredible winter. Below zero in 3 seperate months! Snow cover days must be near the top as well. The February storm was most likely a coastal hugger so I would assume inland there were probably totals over 3’.

13.5” on 2.95” liquid is insane. Must have been a ton of sleet. That would have been a nightmare to clear. Good analog, though I doubt we see anything close to that magnitude of cold.