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LongBeachSurfFreak

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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak

  1. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I hate to say it but I agree. I think too many people, pros included are warm water drunk so to speak. The Atlantic could be 40c and if there’s a ton of shear and dry air it doesn’t matter. That said, any storm that finds a moist low shear area has the potential to go nuclear. This is basically what long term climate models are forecasting. More cat 5s and less 1/2s relative to climatology.
  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Right…. Slow but not forgotten. Though I think some of the major forecast have a high bust potential.
  3. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Dora looks spectacular this morning. This is going to be one monster ace producer as it has several more days as a major.
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Damn looks like a cold pool aloft type precip shield. We will take the rain on the drought stricken south shore
  5. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I guess you’re not following forks. Elevated …..
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That has all the hallmarks of a derecho on radar for south/central Jersey. This might be a memorable event down there
  7. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Definitely a derecho in progress. Just insane radar as it went through northern MD
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Storms west of the DC area look like something out the Great Plains. It’s going to be one hell of a day there. we are finally destabilizing here, so I wouldn’t totally write our are off
  9. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Exactly. Fetch and duration are actually equally important. You can get captured fetch when a storm is moving fast enough to entrain its own swell. So there is likely a large east swell moving with the storm currently, but to the westerly movement it will miss the islands. The best example of captured fetch was hurricane bill of 08 in the north east. The storm was moving north west towards the coast with a large captured swell ejected as the storm eventually turned north. That produced the largest swell I have witnessed on Long Island. With sets in the 15 foot range causing massive wash overs and beach erosion under sunny sky’s.
  10. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Yeah I was surprised know when was talking about this storm. Very resilient microcane. Contains some annular properties which would explain the resilience. Very long track too
  11. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Zip on the island and the city last night. Always surprises me when a front comes through dry this time of year. Onto Monday/Tuesday
  12. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Some very nice storms over Pa and upstate currently. We are kind of in the squeeze play between that action and precip down south
  13. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Yet we can’t crack 100 during the summer. Most likely do to increased DP. Kind of like Florida, Hi capital but also really breaks 100.
  14. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Belle likely would have been a hurricane at landfall on Long Island based on current water temps, keeping all other factors the same. We are loosing our hurricane buffer more and more. This will soon be prime hurricane coastline.
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Hard to tell, but I think that’s an ash, which would be doomed anyway.
  16. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Wind gust to 48 knots at the 44065 the ny harbor buoy, and .86” at the wantagh meso. Very very rare win for the south shore of the island.
  17. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Of course I headed north to catch what I thought would be the best of the storm on the north shore. Caught the double rainbow and maybe 40mph gusts while going up the wantagh. Should have stayed at the beach where I’m sure it ended up epic
  18. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Storms in Pa could consolidate into a nice squall line. Winds just tripled In an hour at Jones beach. Ruff conditions with multiple rescues.
  19. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Currently full sunshine with a nice breeze at Jones beach, perfect beach day.
  20. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I heard on 1010 wins on the way into work that this is the worst heat in a decade…. Ummmm right…. It’s hot, but pretty much run of the mill for any given July.
  21. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That was some impressive lighting for about a half hour. I got 25mph gusts and a 4 minute deluge in lynbrook.
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Storms coming from the north tend to produce for the island. I would hold off before calling a bust
  23. LongBeachSurfFreak
    It’s nasty out on the uws. Instantly drenched and sweating does no good due to the dews. It’s really got that unbearable feel today. Could get some nice microburst producing storms later.
  24. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Looks like an Ambrose jet event. It will be a full on sand storm at the beach in the afternoon/evening. Throw in crowds this week and and lots of rescues at the beach
  25. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I understand the basics, but that paper is for Math PhDs. Care to elaborate on real world effects?
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