LongBeachSurfFreak

Need some serious CAA this time of year to get the park below freezing. I’d say 35 for the low…

Currently in West Hempstead and did not see any snow mix in.

The north east Caribbean is really due for a major. Waters there accumulate heat over the course of years rather then seasons and rely on the upwelling caused by hurricanes for cooling. So essentially that’s an area of virgin OHC. As far as the rest of the Atlantic I think above average ACE is a safe bet. As far as exact landfall locations, I like the SE and gulf again.

Don’t worry, the cold pool will send us the back door. Even if it doesn’t anywhere near the south shore will be significantly colder with water temps still around 40.

Throw in the cold pool off New England and it’s a lock the back door is stronger then expected. I would much prefer the warmth but reality is reality.

Yeah. This is definitely the snow hole of Long Island. Getting progressively worse as you head south, with Long Beach being the least snowy location.

Almost an inch in Sw Nassua with a very presistent band of moderate rain. It’s actually brighter now then it was during mid afternoon.

Looks to be a rather small VEI 4 eruption of a side vent with a recurrence time of 50 years or so. Cool to watch but a very small climate effect. The main cone has a recurrence time of something like 5,000 years and I would think would be much larger VEI 5 or 6.

It was January of 2010 I believe

I’ll never forget that day. I was living in Long Beach and working in new Hyde park. The strangest rain snow line I have ever seen. South of sunrise nothing but white rain, north of sunrise several inches of snow, and it stayed relatively constant up to new Hyde park. Usually the rain snow line sets up along the terminal moraine (northern state) Meanwhile steady moderate rain continues

Great post. I have thought allot about what would happen in the absence of humans. A propensity towards longer harsher ice ages and shorter cooler inter glacial periods would eventually tip the scale in a runaway cooling towards snow ball earth. The question is what’s left when the suns expantion finally warms the planet enough to melt the ice. Likely single cell extemeaphile life. Which likely wouldn’t have enough time to evolve much further before it’s too warm for any life.

Obviously I was being simplistic and sarcastic. I think a great analogy for C02 is poking a bear. Bears are beautiful creatures that are extremely important to their habitats. Live and let live and it’s all good. I am really starting to think that at the higher intelligence end of the denier spectrum it’s turned into a game. It’s just become too incredibly obvious that the planet is warming at an accelerating rate. It’s fun too make up self serving skewed facts, knowing that others will believe regardless of the truth. This really is a can of worms. We could probably spend a week discussing this in person.

I lived literally on the beach for years during one of the snowiest periods ever on Long Island and never saw anything like that. My guess is it something for the soil that’s concentrating on the front of the snow blower.

I live in Lynbrook too as you know and it the difference between home and the beach was remarkable. Even if it was only a few degrees cooler at the beach, something about the higher dews and of course the wind just makes it feel so raw.

Even a 2c warming isn’t going to end cold shots. Well into April. One thing to consider this spring is the cold pool formed from upwhelling with all the offshore flow this winter. I was just at jones beach to go for a run and with the wind out of the south it was remarkably cold. The cold pool to our north east will also have the ability to bring down chilly maritime air anytime we are in a cutoff pattern. Those patterns are common this time of year as the jet slows and retracts.

Yeah if I had access to google earth as a kid I probably would have too! It gets a little boring staring at an actually globe. Even now I spend hours looking for obscure surf breaks in isolated places. Also glacial retreat facisnates me and can be seen on GE.

Boston is at a similar latitude as Albany so that will do it in a marginal setup. Had it been 2 or 3 degrees cooler all that white rain here would have been a foot plus of snow. They are also in a better spot for late maturing miller B’s into the gulf of Maine. And often get some ocean enchantment.

Of course, but based on the lack of true Arctic air available it’s safe to hedge with highest elevations. I’m not sure if you remember 97, that storm had everything going for it and we ended up with hour after hour of white rain. As soon as we would build up a coating it would turn to drizzle over and over.

I think you should set up the first colony on Venus! Plenty of lovely C02 there. Good thing C02 does not create a positive feed back cycle of planetary heating…

Above 2500’ in the Berks and southern greens sure!!! Anywhere else not so much…

Forrest Hills in a big prewar apartment building. I went there a few days after Sandy as well as they never lost power. I think there are surprises in store with the coming season just like last year. The new normal is expect the unexpected.

Yeah, I was only three for Gloria, but it is my first weather memory. We evacuated south wantagh to my grandmothers in queens. Gloria had allot of similarities to 38 and 44 both in regards to strength and pressure while it was south east of North Carolina. So I understand the hype at the time. The difference between that hurricane and the formers is that it didn’t phase with the trough as cleanly and thus suffered from slower movement and land interaction which caused dry air entrainment destroying the southern side of the storm. The satellite pic in my profile shows that very well. It also hit at low tide. As far as the future, it will always take the perfect setup to get a major up here regardless of rising water temps. Too many land interaction issues based on our geography. Warmer waters enhance the risk but aren’t the end all when you are a 90 degree angle coast.

Cat 2 105mph into South Hampton. Speaking of historic Long Island hurricanes, the nature center at west end 2 at jones beach has some great photos of the damage to jones beach during the hurricane of 38. Pretty similar damage to what we saw with sandy, which is truly remarkable considering jones beach was on the weaker western side of 38. Meaning at the time of peak surge the winds would have been out the north east and then north and offshore. The damage was likely caused by the tremendous waves associated with the storm. I would love to have been on the second floor of the west bathhouse and witnessed those waves coming in to opposing 100mph gusts. Likely spraying a hundred feet or more into the air!

Yeah I fully agree that storm is a worst case scenario for the NY/NJ coast, far worse then Sandy as you have much greater wind impacts with similar or even greater surge. As far as pressure, that may be why it has been historically thought to be a cat 3/4. Again, using the Sandy example hurricanes at our latitude often have pressures much lower then generally associated with its maximum sustained winds if it were fully tropical. Sadly the only way to know for sure would be to go back in time.

We tend to lag areas at the same latitude due to the marine influence. So I get it with Pittsburg but the maps definitely off for the island especially. Even Bradfords (hopefully they will all be dead soon, pitiful tree) are just starting to swell right on the south shore.