Jump to content

LongBeachSurfFreak

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,515

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak

  1. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Carol, 54 was a major. But the point remains the same. I really like an Eduardo 96 type track for this one. Close but no cigar.
  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    It’s been dry right along the coast for the last week. That’s enough to help the park at least be within the ball park….
  3. LongBeachSurfFreak
    This will be a major beach erosion beast. Huge circulation with a very large fetch as its passing by. Most likely the largest swell for the north east since bill 08. I’m thinking ahead of some protected breaks inside inlets that break once a decade. Because the paddle may be damn near impossible.
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    This pretty much sums it up. And why majors are so rare in the north east. Most of our storms are coming up from the Carolina’s having weakened due to land interaction. That’s why 38 was so special, it bypassed the normal disruption and came in directly from the ocean.
  5. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I’ll go with 915 165mph while passing PR longitude.
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I think the large outer bands are a sign that this will be an above average size storm too. Typhoon tip in the west pac is a great example of an enormous circulation with a powerful small inner core.
  7. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Major wash overs and flooding. Spent the day yesterday digging out burried snow fence. Based on what happened with bill in 08, it doesn’t take a direct hit to do damage. That storm stripped the beach and flooded the lots behind the boardwalk under sunny skies. It was bigger (larger fetch are and closer) then Franklin. All of which seemed a certainty with lee regardless of a hit.
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    One thing is certain with lee this far out. This is a beach rearrange situation. Major major, beach erosion event is set in stone
  9. LongBeachSurfFreak
    The big take away from this storm, regardless of if it ever makes landfall on the east coast, is it’s huge eventual size will cause allot of water to move towards the coast in the form of extremely long period swells. This is going to be a major beach erosion event. Also, lee looks to Miss the bulk of the cold wake left by Franklin. a very memorable coastal event is on the way
  10. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Gert is currently being absorbed into Idalia in a perfect example of the Fujiwara effect. Cool to watch on satellite
  11. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Hopefully this avoids the cold wake left by Franklin. I would love to see a long track major just miss. Major swell producing event as I’ll be on vacation from my real job and life guarding full time at Jones beach Ny. Timing couldn’t be better.
  12. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I’m right on board with you. I think this has the potential to be a huge ACE maker, and another prolific swell producer for the east coast.
  13. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I agree. Surge flooding in places like the Tampa area. Not news worthy because who cares if someone got 6” of water in their house but, for that owner that could mean 10,000%+ of ripping out carpets/floors. We have seen it so many times on the south shore of Long Island. (Not mentioning the S word)
  14. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I don’t think 100, but there was an extended heat wave in the late 1800s that killed lots of people. I’m sure someone could add the specifics
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Full wash overs at Jones beach. Surf isn’t incredibly large (6-8’) but the long periods and southerly direction are causing the water to come completely over the berm and flood the entire beach with several feet of water all the way to the boardwalk. This evenings high tide should come the highest.
  16. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Jones beach is completely flooded as expected. This evenings high tide should really cause some issues as the swell is peaking.
  17. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Pretty hard to not find at least some decent winds with a 970 pressure. Like others have said it takes near perfect conditions to creat a 5. The classic is Katrina going from a cat one to a 5 while passing right over this same area.
  18. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I was just checking the area likely to get the largest surge on google maps. This has to be the least developed coastal area on the entire east/gulf coast. For once we get to watch a storm explode and not feel that back of the mind guilt about loss of life. Even inland it’s going to pass between Tallahassee and Gainesville. It wouldn’t surprise me if monetary losses are larger in the Carolina’s then Florida with this one.
  19. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Very true, this setup in July would have meant a long lasting heat wave with shots at 100.
  20. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Yeah I was really surprised to see the amounts removed from the forecast today. Meaning, we will be lucky to get a few showers.
  21. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Based on its relatively small size that should solidly put it at 160, though based on NHC forecasting 155, I bet they go with 155mph.
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Looks like a low end cat 5 to me. Hopefully recon gets there in time before a EWR happens. That’s about text book right there, nice stadium effect.
  23. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Surf at area beaches will be pretty large Wednesday and Thursday from Franklin. If you want to witness the power of the ocean and some washovers and beach erosion it’s worth heading to the beach those days! Franklin now forecast to 155mph while sitting due south of us. One of the strongest storms ever to pass between Bermuda and NC.
  24. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Exactly, fetch is very important. Though with the track being north for a two day period there will be captured fetch in the eastern quadrant that will affect south facing beaches in the north east.
  25. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Franklin had that text book look right now. Despite its smallish size, it will produce the largest, most dangerous August swell for the east coast since Bill 08. Beach erosion, wash overs and deadly rip currents likely up and down the east coast.
×
×
  • Create New...