jayyy

It’ll be snowing there at game time.

My parents 50 miles NW of NYC are reporting 35 and rain currently while I’m snowing down here. The dynamics are interesting with the cold press and precipitation to say the least.

Precisely why folks shouldn’t be freaking out yet. Most places only lost .02-.04 of QPF to rain / mix. The flip will come fast and furious, as will the QPF.

Looking like the area from Leesburg to FDK to N Carroll county should be in the heavy goods by 130

Expecting places west of 95 to flip to snow around 1-130 pm and Baltimore around 2pm as consistent heavier returns begin to impact that area. Locations near 95 were NOT supposed to get much in the way of QPF from the initial push of moisture to the NW. Models did a good job depicting this going in. Models also showed the storm dumping majority of QPF near the fall line in the mid to late afternoon. Especially for the Baltimore area and points NE. Still on schedule peeps. Stay cool.

2pm on is the timeframe I’d be looking out for out that way once the coastal gets cranking

33 moderate snow, nice sized flakes surfaces caving (not roads yet)

Looking at guidance when the storm is developing in front of us? I’m good. I’ll give my left testy if it only snows one inch here in union bridge and in the lower Hudson valley like that shows.

Rain/mix to snow with most of it falling in a 4-5 hour period when we have the best lift over the area has been the forecast all along. Nothings really changed for dc / Baltimore and points NNW at this point.

Already snow mixing in in Ellicott city per the video my brother just sent me

They won’t because they shouldn’t.

The NWS forecast has called for rain / snow mix prior to going all snow in the afternoon for days now in the lowlands because that’s exactly what most models showed going in. Nothing has really changed at this juncture except maybe for 50/66 south. The fact that it’s 10am and many places to the west are changing over or all snow is a good sign. Radar looks exactly like we’d expect - maybe a tad ahead of schedule with precip blossoming. Not sure why there’s so much freaking out going on. Anyway… 33F mod snow, fatty flakes as the transition occurs

You took the words right out of my mouth. I feel like when we’re under a WSW, we either bust low or barely hit the lower range. When they go conservative, we get a pleasant surprise. Maybe those occurrences are just the ones that stick out in my mind [emoji23] but I’m still going with it!!

3-6” is a reasonable forecast I’d say

Obviously still anyone’s guess where these bands ultimately setup and our area’s climo comes into play.. but it’s certainly interesting to see 3-4 models tonight with a similar output (having the max near 95) Wonder if they’re onto something.

Certainly odd that you’re 5 degrees warmer than lowland Howard county. Weather is weird

A lot of factors go into localized temps. It’s currently colder in Ellicott city (31) than the NYC suburbs (36) Weird for sure but nonetheless…

Euro and RGEM with the 95 band via the coastal. Gfs about 15-20 miles further west with the goods but still gives 95 corridor borderline warning snowfall *May*have to raise that 2-4” forecast for areas just west of 95 if this keeps up

Indeed. However still 5+ along 95

I’m too lazy to look. Lay it on us Randy

Already down to freezing in the Ellicott city area per obs. Thinking you’re right. And if the euro / rgem has the right idea of a near 95 qpf max, places like Columbia, EC, owings mills could see 5”

lol where are you located sourpuss

Dc Baltimore jack during a marginal event. What could go wrong [emoji28]

Thermals?

Temp drop continues. 34 and cloudy