jayyy

IF this pans out in the timeframe depicted above, we’ll likely get one shot at a biggie. It’s early enough to make some magic happen. If it’s kicked down the road to the end of march, maybe not, and we watch nyc to Boston have an epic backend.

This isn’t “much warmer” and it’s the best look we’ve had all season outside of December’s -NAO -AO +PNA regime (which was still a fail) It’s cold enough and workable for snow. There is a very major difference here versus what we’ve been dealing with. Notice the southeast ridge is non existent? Can thank the feature out in the pacific for that. It causes just enough of a reaction in the SW that the SER ends up getting squashed entirely, allowing the boundary to finally settle further south. This should be the best window of the season with an active STJ, suppressed SER, an eroding Niña, and a legit -NAO. . Feature X is what I’m referring to. Causes Y, which then squashes the SER (Z) IF this look pans out, we could get that long awaited KU

6z nam inbound. Little out of range but curious to see how the setup looks leading in around 72hr .

It’s a good thing we’re still 5 days out .

Driving up to the NYC area with my wife Friday morning to see my folks for a few hours before heading upstate in the late afternoon. Have a surprise bday party slated for Saturday morning. Not very excited about going to the bday party (my wife’s friend isn’t my cup of tea) but if I can be in a winter wonderland, count me in. Between Monday’s storm and next weekend, they could have two feet OTG by Saturday night. Nonetheless, rooting for the storm to hit our area. We need it. One more sizable shift south and we’re in the game for a few inches at least. Cards are undoubtedly stacked against us though. Liking the setup for the following week better as the boundary will be further south

Cmc and NAVGEM are the only two models that currently show a favorable outcome. What could go wrong .

00z ICON for shits and giggles. What a bomb .

Models have honed in on general solutions around day 5 all winter long. Especially at h5. The problem is that every threat has trended the wrong way in that timeframe and eventually failed. This time we’re seeing the opposite (aside from the GFS) occur, where most models are getting more bullish as we get closer. The euro and CMC at D5-6 getting significantly better is a good sign, especially with ensemble support. It is nice to see the hit camp be bigger than the fail camp for a change. Still about 72 hours out from getting too excited about this though given our propensity to fail this winter.

Nope .

Models were never really depicting very cold air. Just a workable pattern with blocking, the boundary dragging south, and the SER suppressed for a window of time. Timing has always been paramount for this window to work. It’s march… we’re not going to get heart of climo type departures when we’re banking on the NAO with a suppressed SER to do most of the dirty work for us.

There is something to be said here. We often get the “biggies” (6-12+) on the tail end of mature blocks as the NAO heads toward neutral. PSU is also right about needing some luck to score when we see a -NAO initially take hold. There’s a week or so lag downstream (often takes a storm or two to drag the boundary south) We don’t typically see snowstorms within the first few days of a block setting up, and the biggies often occur on the tail end. Would be nice to also score a moderate event as the block is entrenched If we can manage one biggie plus an advisory to low end warning event over the next 3 weeks, the metros could manage a 50-60% climo year despite how awful this winter has been. That’d be an absolute win given how stacked the cards have been against us. The problem is we still have to overcome a hostile PAC, which could limit our chances. .

Looks pretty much as depicted. Zoom out. Plenty of precip to our SW

It’ll drop with precip .

24 hour accumulated precip. 12z v 0z

Euro made a huge move in our direction. If the euro still looks this way 00z Monday with other guidance (ICON CMC) still showing snow to our south, color me interested.

P30 - DC to BOS special for good karma

I’m supposed to be going to a surprise party in Scotia NY on march 4th. As much as I’d like to enjoy the storm up there, not sure I want to drive in an upstate NY blizzard. FML .

1 to locally 3” (DC jack) on the RGEM .

Do tell .

In the bullseye… on the GFS only… a week out. What could go wrong [emoji41] .

00z that bad?? .

Is it a Smarch storm? .

“If only this thing wasn’t X (8 in this case) days out.” - the mantra of winter 2022-23 I guess the silver lining is that the key players leading in are getting into position around day 6ish. If the GFS shows this solution at D5 and euro moves toward it, you can color me interested. Unfortunately, excitement won’t come until we’re inside 4ish days. I don’t trust models for shit anymore. .

I’ll take socialist snow. Any way we can get it done .

I’ll take that 8-10 days out over a dead hit. Because we all know where it’s trending over the next 3-5 days .