jayyy

We haven’t had the mechanisms in place to kick the WC trough east all season though. We all have PTSD. That much is very, very clear. .

Thank you. I get people are snow starved but FFS, if folks can’t handle the run to run fluctuations on OPs, stop tracking 8-15 day threats 4x a day. We’re talking day 1 stuff here; not living and dying by OP runs and controls at long range, or getting mad at a 240+ hour clown maps. There is NO world where the euro, Canadian, gfs or any other model’s OP (at long range) shows a consistent solution. The fact that the EPS / GEPS have held strong and the GEFS has trended in their direction is all we need to know. It takes very small changes up top to completely change the outcome of an OP run. The difference between a bomb off the coast or a bomb running through PA is noise at range on an OP. IF the ensembles start trending the wrong way and deterministic players start looking unfavorable, THEN we can start worrying. Considering how complex the setup is, the consistency of the EPS & GEPS has been pretty remarkable. Breathe y’all.

This is why I said last night that I’m pissed cmc showed a massive dead hit blizzard. Any OP run that shows otherwise will have people freaking out. Wait. For. The. Ensembles. Fuckers.

Can we get the other Ji back?

PSU just literally said otherwise [emoji23]

Hopefully that slug drops thermals. I know I know, noise details at range but I want my model porn damn it

Going to be pretty cool to drive north through this storm later on. Should be all rain here this afternoon, a mix as we get to the lower Hudson valley, and a paste bomb in upstate NY. Edit — sleet pingers are so loud I can hear it bouncing off the roof at work

Nice!! Enjoy that front end white .

What’s your location?

Pingers at work in Columbia looks like light snow at home in Union bridge on the cams, but it could be sleety

When the OP doesn’t match the Ensemble whatsoever… ya toss that shit. .

Differences seem pretty negligible at this range. Those two maps are nearly identical. At least it’s digging a tiny bit more.

WWA for 5-9” where I’m heading this weekend. Man, must be REAL nice to have climo where 5-9” is considered advisory level. Fuckers. Alright, @brooklynwx99 , let’s reel this sucker in. The sanity of snow starved weenies depends on it! (Myself included) .

Show us damn it!

Do you understand how a mean works? Stop obsessing over snow totals on clown maps man. You know better.

Can’t wait for tomorrow when the OP CMC doesn’t show 3 feet of snow (which is completely fine and normal this far out) and people have major meltdowns saying it’s “caving” and falling apart. [emoji58] I, for one, kinda hope it shows a more suppressed storm over the coming few days, so it can make the inevitable jog north to jackpot us come game time. I’d actually be more worried if it showed us jackpotted over the next few days, as we know that look won’t hold for a week and we’ll end up watching NYC get buried. The important thing is that the GEFS has taken a major leap toward the EPS and GEPS. Now let’s reel this baby in. We have two legit threats to track over the coming two weeks. Amen!

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What a thread @stormtracker .

There is almost ALWAYS going to be a rise in heights ahead of a trough that big swinging east. That’s how the physics works. So long as the progression continues east, it’s precisely what we want to see at this range from the ensembles. Two frames later, the block and 50/50 helps annihilate the SER. It’s literally gone. The success rate of this is certainly nowhere near 100%, but we’ve gotten our hopes up all winter long during patterns that were 10% as good as this. Praying for perfect timing and threading the needle when the 500mb setup screamed no chance in hell (PSU has gotten shit for pointing it out all winter) Tracking til the bitter end despite the writing being on the wall a week beforehand. I don’t think anyone’s saying we’re guaranteed to see a HECS. BUT this is sure as heck the best 500mb setup and chance we’ve had in a LONG time. We don’t need perfect to score a nice storm. You rarely get a perfect setup. There’s always one or two factors that could potentially throw a wrench in the outcome, but the most important deterministic factors are on our side for once. This warrants excitement. No problem with being cautious though. It’s understandable given how this winter has gone for us.

Dry isn’t a worry right now. That jet is very active and will only get more active. .

Whew. Glad it was just due to a bit of a delay in timing. .

Stop it with these LR clown maps Ji. Funny to see that 31” inch total right over my parents house in Rockland county NY though just NW of NYC [emoji23] probably won’t turn out that way, but considering just how awful this winter has been for them, if that were to pan out, they’d be above 40” for the season including Monday’s storm.

00z EPS vs 12z in the same timeframe.

Yeah, this weekends storm isn’t it for the NYC metro or really any area within 100 miles of the coastline. It makes perfect sense too given where we are in the progression of the pattern change. I commend some people’s optimism that it’ll somehow trend south at the last second, but where we are in the progression of the 500mb pattern is not conducive of such a trend. A newly formed -NAO alone won’t get it done. The prime window is from the 10th onward with the western trough finally pushing east, a more established Greenland block, a squashed SER, and the MJO pushing into phase 8. This weekend’s storm becomes a bombed out ocean low (hello 50/50) which alongside the Greenland block forms a textbook rex-block around the 10-12th timeframe. That progression is the key to the KU kingdom. This weekend is simply too early on in the process to deliver the goods.

https://www.weather.gov/media/crp/Ensembles_Anomalies_Analogs_Buchanan.pdf Nice resource from NWS discussing ensembles and how they operate. (Biases, strengths, challenges, etc) Had no idea there was an ensemble that’s a GEFS / GEPS combo. Unsure how reliable it is, but new info for me nonetheless.