jayyy

Just a small difference between the OP and ensemble mean with where the coastal develops. [emoji23]

Nice spread of MSLP on that ensemble. Have to love the complete change in evolution among models. Our first look fails, and we end up with a different type of threat altogether. Issue is… it’s a Miller B. We all know the easiest way to fail with Miller B’s and who they typically favor. Long way to go though.

Been tracking snow long enough as a NY native to know this setup is absolutely prime for the NYC metro into SNE. The NW suburbs of NYC from NE NJ to the Lower Hudson valley through CT are going to get buried under 2+ feet if tonight’s euro is remotely correct. Growing up in that area, coastal jumps to this general vicinity off OC and a crawling, deepening low means a MAJOR storm for them; a blizzard at that. We need the primary to track way further south for our latitude to score with this. The thing is.. this time… we actually have the mechanism in place to allow such a trend to potentially unfold. (What the EPS mean shows versus the OP which tracks the primary further north and redevelops a coastal further north off OC) Not saying we hit flush… but areas NW of I-95 are very much in the game from DCA north. The fail risk is pretty high here though. March 15-17th still seems to be our best chance.

We’re the new charlotte baby! My area over to PSU had a very good 2020, but that is seeming more and more like a complete fluke. Outside of that, it’s barely snowed besides Jan 2016 and march 2018. Pretty depressing to think about.

That, or moving (if feasible) if snow is paramount to your mental wellbeing. Seems silly to say, but I know folks who’ve moved to snow belts because they love it so much.

You’d have to jeb wobble! .

Being right about the million ways we can now fail must be exhausting man. About to move to Lake Tahoe and call it a day [emoji23] .

Yep. My bitter soul from this train wreck of a winter has been somewhat restored making this trip up to NY. This is my current view as I’m stoned and drunk at the bar. Almost shed a tear of joy watching snow accumulate. [emoji23] I turned to my girlfriend and said “is this shit really happening?”

Lovely scene out there currently

At the bar for this surprise bday party, look outside, and the snow machines apparently turned back on. Some trailing bands coming through. Could push them to a foot when all is said and done. The melt factor was real today though. Watched the snow disappear from hour to hour under sunlight. Hoping I can bring winter back with me to the MA!

I like how your last post said you’re not worried it’ll go south at 00z and then you come back with the pessimism less than an hour later. When the snow chances arise, so does the old Ji [emoji23]

35 and switched to rain. Compaction already happening like a MOFO but they ended up around 11” total .

When is it forecasted to transition into phase 8? Hopefully helps us keep the SER at bay.

Looks the same…. Ridiculously different than it’s ENS. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong necessarily but yeesh

I’m up in Schenectady, NY tonight into tomorrow for a friend’s surprise 30th bday party. They are getting absolutely crushed up here. Heavy snow OBS reported for the past 4+ hours easily. 6+ OTG with 1-2” per hour rates Red dot [emoji837] = current location

Getting absolutely hammered up here. Referring to both my intoxication level and the snow. Over 2” in the last hour alone and over 6” OTG Red dot marked my current location

Man, what a headspinning hobby. Appreciate all of your analysis and insight my friend. You’ve been steadfast with your thoughts on how this all will unfold, and you were certainly right several days ago when you said the solutions would be all over the damn place over the coming days Love to see the flattening of the flow on the EPS, allowing the storm to slide underneath. It’s quite close to being an areawide snowstorm (with mixing / rain in the lowland areas along and east of 95) Next 72 hours will be pretty crucial, no matter which way this turns out.

No doubt. There’s a very long way to go. Snow maps at this range are 100% irrelevant but I’d be lying if I said I didn’t enjoy seeing pink over my house for a moment there. Yeesh, that storm slowed WAAAAAY down. If this were the not so distant past, those are the exact models I’d want on my side at range… but we all know what’s up this winter.

I’d honestly laugh if the EPS trended the opposite way

Obviously not the final solution but I dig the changes run over run. Too bad the storms end is still 10 days out lol Edit - 10:1 map, which is unlikely to occur, so one can cut this by at least 1/3 if we’re being realistic with temps. Not that clown maps really mean much at this range.

The low definitely is SW of where it was in the prior frame. Weird. That outcome is sooo different than OP 18z .

Likely not. Some snow there for my area for sure but I know better than to bank on backside shenanigans. Still 7-8 days out though so I’m not too pressed on thermals / exact details at this range. .

Suspect we’ll have more clarity in 48 hours or so. Day 4/5 seems to be the sweet spot this winter for when models drastically tighten the envelope. .

Interior special. 6+ NW of 95. 12+ inland

… close but no cigar. Much improved though! .