jayyy

lol, it’s ok Ralph. No need to get defensive. You’ve certainly been one of the few alongside me, PSU, cape and Brooklyn who’ve been optimistic. .

Depends on rates for sure. I watched it snow a foot this weekend with temps just above freezing. Rates overcame. Sure, it melted quick, but I’d take 1-3” up here from wave 1 in a heartbeat. Especially with wave 2 right on its heels. Rates would be a concern for sure. No models are showing the thump we’d need to overcome.

It was from NYC, and the frame before isn’t exactly a death sentence for our forum either. Plenty of lows in positions we can score in. I get what you’re saying, but that’s not really the case with what I shared.

Comparing means in completely different patterns. We had a garbage pattern all winter outside of a week or two in December. I get your pessimism. We all do. But saying it won’t play out simply because it didn’t before isn’t exactly a legit reason to downplay the possibility. I get it though man. It’s rough out here.

Trend is slowly being our friend for a change. Certainly not going to see the big hit JMAs been teasing us with for wave 1… but there’s enough time IMO for a 1-3” type event to come together like euro is depicting. Things coming together a bit too late / east at D4 isn’t an awful place to be given the seasonal trend of things amping up as we approach game time. Wave 2 and 3 are by far our better chance at something significant, but as a Highlander, I am certainly not going to write off wave 1 entirely at this range. No way.

Except the frame before is fine for us I’d say at this range. .

Who gives a shit where it comes from [emoji23] .

Waves 1&2 are officially now within 7 days

Storm 2

Storms 1&2 per 12z euro Love seeing pink and purples over my house here in northern MD. I am under 2” for the entire season. .

Still in phase 7. Not ideal for our snow chances. Hopefully we transition to 8 very shortly.

It’s rarely right, but fuck it’s been consistent for DAYS. .

Wave 2 per the CMC. Better look than wave 1 with the boundary setup further south. Wave 1 kickstarts the pattern and wave 2 follows on its heels with better conditions in place.

This was the 18z eps ensemble mean MSLP map. 0z coming soon. .

I think wave 2 is the one to really watch. One ushers in the cold air and ushers in the pattern, wave 2 gets it done. It’s far out, but some LR models are also showing a wave 3. Wave train coming. .

lol already calling the pattern a fail and the period in question hasn’t happened yet. Perhaps wait for the futility posts until the end of the month Like our chances on 2/3 waves in question before the 21st

Close (18z) Let’s see what 00z has in store

Too far east but same idea applies for me

There are worse places we could be at this range IMO .

Seasonal trend could be our friend there. Could end up in the sweet spot by game time. I know there’s blocking and a 50/50 in play, which could shunt the storm too far south / east, but I’d WAY rather be in this spot at day 6-7 instead of it showing a NYC to Boston blizzard. The trend all year is for things to become more amped / earlier phasing as we get closer. Of course we could over-amp and we’re screwed in a totally different way, but if a Miller b is going to show up as a fail at this range, I’d way rather models show a flat solution to our south than some amped bomb at our latitude. Model spread is still significant. We’re going to have to be patient over the coming days as tough as that is

Correct. Euro has a better verification score

If I wanted any model to be over amplifying the initial wave at this range, it’d be the OP Euro. Rooting for that EPS mean depiction all day long. .

Not really sure that mean, if it played out exactly as depicted, would be “devastating” for us. If a coastal were to pop off the SC coastline and bomb out near Virginia, I’m pretty positive my area would get a warning level event. The ensemble mean tracks the primary to Kentucky. Now… the OP would certainly be devastating as it pops the coastal near ocean city and it bombs out way too late. .

ensemble mean = major snowstorm for DC to BOS OP = major snowstorm for central NJ to BOS The difference? The ensemble mean pops the coastal off the coast of NC/SC, instead of ocean city. Both outcomes crush the nyc metro. The ensemble mean depiction gets the mid Atlantic in on the action too.

The Euro OP is a no go for us and a major SNE special…. But the EPS mean is way further south with where it pops the coastal (off the coast at the NC SC border) and then absolutely bombs out off the VA coast as it heads NE. Big difference for our area between those outcomes. Coastal pop near ocean city = fuck you to us coastal pop near South Carolina = we’re in the game Coastal pops at 150 - 6.25 days from now. FINALLY within 7 days.