jayyy

Frame 2…. 72 hours. What happens in the 12 hours in between?

LOL, is the JMA serious? 48-72 hours out from the storm’s evolution and it’s showing a Miller A? Frame 1 @ 48

Only 240 hours out. What could go wrong? [emoji38]

If the 17th and/or 21st waves pan out, they’ll be dubbed the PSU storms

Complete bust coming for my folks area (new city). 3-6” advisory lowered to 2-5” but I doubt they even see 1-2” at this rate. RGEM was spot on.

Yep. Of course the chances are lower than in January - February… but it’s certainly not impossible. The setup is much better for us for the 17th and 21st waves for the reasons PSU has been laying out for the past week or two. A SS driven storm versus a NS driven storm gives us a much better shot at seeing an earlier coastal develop. Late season makes it hard, but not impossible. I’ve seen plenty of late march / early April snows before. Location of course helps, but I won’t be fully tapping out until after the 25th or so.

Pretty big bust tonight for my parents area NW of NYC. NWS had an advisory up for 3-6” earlier, but they’re at 39 degrees with rain currently. If they manage to flip, they MAY get an inch or two if they get lucky.

Now let’s look at the wave around the 20th… VERY similar longwave setup, except there’s no NS feature to over-complicate things. Instead, we are left with a robust SS wave that can run underneath and blow up early. What you’re left with is tonight’s 00z Canadian. A storm that develops and blows up off the SE coast and runs up the coastline. It seems like a small difference in the grand scheme of things, but it has massive implications downstream. If the 17th and 21st waves have the above setup at H5, we’re in business. The fail risk is the timing (late march versus early to mid march) but it’s feasible. The NS is destroying this 14th threat for NYC and points SW.

The setup for the 14th…. A Pacific trough, some riding popping out west, -NAO, and a 50/50. Prime setup right? Yes…. except for one thing. That pesky feature marked X. It ruins things. Why? It’s a NS wave running nearly parallel with the SS wave. For this to work, X needs to lead Y in the flow and dig. X was not present on most models over the past week (like on the GFS / GEFS,) and that’s why it showed the desired outcome for NYC. It’s now catching up the the reality of a NS driven Miller B sadly.

It’s snowed in late march before. Over a foot in DC actually. And my area can certainly get crushed in late march. Not everyone lives where you live bud.

If this storm unfolded as depicted… originating over FL and riding the coast like that with a 50-50 and blocking in place, we’d be talking more than 3-5”

FRAME 2…. BOOM

This is why a SS driven storm is MUCH better. This evolution would bring respectable snow to the entire DC to BOS corridor Frame 1 ….

Tracks right up the coast. Absolute prime setup .

This is a prime example of the Euro’s bias providing NYC with a heartbreaking mirage in the mid range (D4-5) We have seen this song and dance before over the years with these setups. This setup mimics almost every other previous Miller B fail for NYC proper and points SW. It’s not impossible, but so much needs to go right for DC BAL PHL and NYC to score big in a NS driven Miller b setup. A NS driven miller B plays directly into the Euro’s over-amplification bias. It’s tendency to blow up lows too quickly / far west is why it showed a biggie, even for the lowlands. In reality, a NS driven Miller B is more likely to develop just too far east due to how far north the primary gets and the angle at which the NS digs leading in. If this were a SS driven setup, BAL to BOS would be getting crushed with a metropolis wide foot +. The wave 3 threat (St Paddy’s) and wave 4 (march 20-22nd) has always been the better window due to the NS’s influence being quelled. The ensembles showed this pretty clearly earlier today. The longwave pattern is nearly identical as the 13-14th, except those 2 waves form in a SS driven regime, allowing the coastals to develop earlier and the precip shield to expand / strengthen in time for the metros to cash in. It’s not impossible to cash in, but the NAM GFS Euro RGEM etc. are trending the wrong way for a reason.

But it’s not just the NAM or GFS. Euro also isn’t good for the metro.

They’re falling apart up there. Ukmet was the peak last night showing insane totals

Our latitude will probably get 2 shots at something relatively significant. Waves 3 and 4, and perhaps a bomb at the tail end of the pattern as blocking breaks down. Give me two 3-6” type events and I’ll be happier than a pig in shit all things considered

If only this thing was tucked about 100 miles further in and got going a bit earlier. Close but also so far.

10:1 isn’t happening. Use Kuchera. NYC is at best 3-6” on the euro unfortunately. Going to be right on the cusp - nature of the beast with a late forming Miller B. NYC is the swing zone. I’ll be Rockland county (new city) for this one and models are all over the place in that area. The gradient is very steep in the Rockland / orange / westchester zone. 3-6 to 12-20 when moving 20-30 miles in a given direction is a dangerous game to be playing. We should get more clarity on where this low bombs out and gets captured after wave 1 passes through

Canadian did the exact same thing. 20” at my parents, 5” a mere 10 miles to their SE and squat along the coast. Weenie suicide watch in full effect. Maybe I won’t travel to my parents place for this one. Jesus. That gradient is criminal.

12z UKMET. Takes away feet of snow for NYC LI Boston and eastern New England. Last nights run showed 40+ from the lower Hudson valley into CT and MA. At least we stayed at 0 [emoji23]

Mood in the NYC metro thread certainly took a nose dive with todays runs [emoji23] talk about a pullback. UKmet went from 20+ at 00z along the coast near NYC LI to 2-3”. Inland still gets rocked. The gradient is intense. My parents place 30 miles inland gets over a foot while southern westchester gets a few inches. Classic marginal setup with a 87/287 fall line. I’d hate to be on the wrong side of that gradient.

We’ve had a lot of days in the 40s-50s. Some 60s. We didn’t torch really at all (70s+) .

Any shot we see a few changes after wave 1 passes by? Not insinuating we see massive changes that lead to significant snow for us, but enough to get a couple inches into the area. 6z euro was a step in our direction as far as getting some snow into NW zones. Models are locked in on the idea of a major Northeast / New England snowstorm (although NYC is currently modeled between 3-20” depending on the model - nature of the Miller B beast for them) but I feel there’s enough wiggle room with where the primary tracks and the coastal gets going to impact us. I know many would take a 2-4” storm in a heartbeat if it trended that way. Long shot I know, and it’s rare we see a trend in our direction these days, but one can hope.