jayyy

He knows better than Mets do. And models are trash because they can’t nail exact details days or weeks out. Duh. (Kidding obviously) In all seriousness… there’s a path to victory here, but hard to tell how high the upside would be at the moment. Can’t believe I’m saying this but JB… *may* be onto something. And models are ever so slowly catching onto that possibility. Still 4 days out, so we’re still alive, but time is beginning to run thin for seeing major changes in the general synoptic setup. It’s possible things trend our way between now and Friday but we still end up JUST missing. .

My exact line of thinking. Eastern Hoco point NE in the Baltimore suburbs 4-5” .

You should just stay in the panic room until we’re inside 3 days. Return then, Ji. It’ll be better for your sanity.

It’s honestly hard to tell. Many of the globals seem to blossom more precip over us from the coastal, so it’s hard to gauge when it ends by just looking at the back edge on the radar. Hoping it snows through 12z tomorrow.

Nice steady snow falling near the Columbia mall. I’m at work down here today. I’m liking this area, Ellicott city up to Randallstown for this one. Good combo of being far enough N for good temps and far enough south to be where most models max QPF around Baltimore and its immediate WNW suburbs.

Light snow falling at work in Columbia. Sticking everywhere. Love to see it

We’re bringing this one home ladies and gents. 3-5” of fluffy white gold for most. Yeah, I said it.

This was the on ramp to 29 in Ellicott city earlier after I exited to stop for my morning coffee. Completely slick. Car in front of me almost spun out. Definitely forgot to treat it lol That ish doesn’t fly up in the sticks. We need our roads brined cause the roads are already tricky enough being narrow / windy

Ratios FTW!

It’s comin!

Nice! 5” contour right over mi casa. Perfect blend of being far enough NW for higher ratios and SE enough for a smidge more qpf on both the NAM & GFS. Beautiful scene out there this morning for sure.

Looking at radar loops from past 4-6 hours, it’s cool to see the train of moisture spanning from east Texas to VA. The western edge of that precip in E TX hasn’t moved all that much since midnight. 12 am 4AM

Some halfway decent returns embedded in the initial slug of moisture entering the area. Currently NW of DC

Curious to see what the more levelheaded GFS has to say. Probably 2-4” like it’s been showing for several runs now.

WWAs are 2-3” for dc / Baltimore metros and 2-4” for colder areas like Carroll county and the northern tier Point click forecast has 3-6” for parts of Howard county which is interesting lol

Tend to agree. Some precip being eaten up by the mountains I think. But if I’m not mistaken, models like the NAM are enhancing precip again during part 2 of this storm when the LP pops to the coast. NWS has snow likely from 4pm today through 1pm Tuesday, which makes me think they’re also thinking additional precip blossoms over us. Cause I don’t see how the initial slug of moisture to our SW takes that long to move through the area otherwise. The WWA mentions a lull after round 1 before snow picks back up late afternoon through tonight.

The stars to align and unicorns to fart - per usual. We need ridging to improve out west and more digging on our end to force that coastal to pop and develop as far south as possible. That at least gives us a shot at seeing some respectable snow before SNE gets theirs. Issue is… it’s a NS driven event, which often trend the opposite direction for obvious reasons. We know how things typically go when we’re rooting for storms to develop further south than progged at day 4. It’s not over yet, still time before Friday.. but less confident in a snowier last min trend with this wave versus the one we’re seeing today due to the setup. It’s still possible I suppose… but this isn’t a simple overrunning event that we need to nudge N and be more amped. Would need to see some pretty drastic improvements by 0z tonight into tomorrow to believe it’s remotely doable.

Would love to see the GFS and HRRR show something similar to buy into the 6-7” totals for I-95 & 66 but either way, a respectable 2-4” forum wide event with 5” lollies seems like a lock at this point. Mid Atlantic country, let’s ride!

A cold 22 degrees with light snow Column = moist Should be a fun drive down to HoCo this morning.

It’s showed this for consecutive runs.. but it’s also the 12k NAM. Assume the 3k is drier; but that’s also still the NAM lol.

HoCo bullseye .

The ascent under the right entrance of the jet is impressive. Radar looks tasty as a result. Let’s get it! .

Keep that fucking goose outta here. Things trended better once it died a quick death .