jayyy

I’d take the 3-3.5” this depicts IMBY in a heartbeat

What in the actual fack is the IBM Model?

You’ve never heard of Dover, Charlottesville, Atlantic City, etc? lol .

It has nothing to do with the merits of your winter grade. Calling it a grade A winter is equally as irrelevant to the Friday threat. That’s all I’m saying. And tbh, every single post as of late from you = Deb city. I know it’s hard not to be given what we’ve dealt with the past few years, but there’s a place for it. That’s all. Your assessment of the winter so far is pretty accurate I’d say. I’d probably go with a D grade but that’s just me. F is the worst possible grade and nothing about this winter is worse than last year.

Nothing like a 1104 hour ensemble control snow map… Why even post this? It shows 20”+ of snow in the Atlantic Ocean at the same latitude lol. It has 9.4” to our south but 2” over cape. This map is completely useless and will change every single day between now and hour 1104.

We have different threads for a reason.

Panic. Room. .

Now all we need is the 2nd thread after the cancel and a 3rd to bring it back.

it’s loading up the NAMing code as we speak.

HRRR was awful with the last storm, even in the immediate term. It was already snowing outside and it had the storm essentially missing us to the North with 4-6+ amounts in SW PA. Using the HRRR 24+ hours out is a fools errand.

So do the pbp yourself.. ya weenie

Scott alluded to that earlier as well. Certainly not impossible that the storm ends up being a bit more dynamic as the vort passes. If models are dry by even 0.2 qpf, that’s the difference between 1-3 and 3-5

Evening time is the best time to moisten up… so I hear @ravensrule .

Interesting. He give a reason? Or is his inner weenie whispering sweet nothings in his ear

You weren’t here last storm? Yeah imma need you to stay put dawg

All models show between 1-4” of snow for most of us. While what we need to improve differs from last storm, we are in a similar position in that it appears very likely it will snow and that the path to a bit of a boom scenario (3-5 instead of 1-3) isn’t THAT far off. 00z tomorrow will be pretty telling as to whether or not this system will be a bit more juiced than models show currently. Setup doesn’t exactly favor this outcome but you never know.

Not necessarily opposed to the jet being shunted south if we don’t also have an overwhelming block to shove storms out to sea. Leaves room for us to get a bit lucky and have a storm track up from the south off the NC VA coastline. +PNA helps when we don’t have an omega 2 or 3 block in place. Room to score, even if unconventional.

Things haven’t changed really. 1-4” type event depending on location, with enough changes still occurring on models that this could still trend for the better or worse between now and showtime. We’ve also JUST seen a solid areawide 4-6” snow with cold temps and an unmelted snowpack, so people aren’t foaming at the mouth as much.

Still doable but 9/10 times, we’d rather need a north nudge than the opposite. Perhaps this time since it’s already quite cold all the way to the gulf coast, models are underestimating how far south this SW tracks / digs, but idk. I’m just an amateur weenie.

13 degrees. Brrrr! Forecasted low is 8 by 6-7am .

Can’t say I’d be mad about that at all.

Clearly not that obvious since numerous people in this subforum obsess over HECS like they are supposed to hit us seasonally

I’d take a look at bob’s posts from the past few weeks. The likelihood of having a big block in place the entire winter is quite low. I highly doubt we see the NAO flip positive and remain positive through end of winter. If anything, we likely see the block erode (neutral to slightly positive NAO) before reloading again by Valentine’s Day, which isn’t the worst thing in the world. It can still snow with a neutral or slightly positive NAO if you have some other factors working in your favor. You’re clearly big dog hunting (nothing wrong with that) and many of those have occurred when the block is decaying or the NAO is trending positive.

Passing out drunk outside during a snowstorm and waking up covered in 4” of snow is legendary. But yeah, you’re never gonna live last night down [emoji23]

Called that HoCo jackpot. Happy for my former county-mates!