jayyy

53 said I had errant beliefs [emoji23] but I can totally understand the mixup

With the impending pattern change still on track, I’d be OK with settling for a snow thump to rain/dry slot setup around the 4th if it meant setting the stage for a legit storm around the 8-9th. Drag the boundary south, inject in some fresh cold air, and we see a low track up from the Gulf coast. Hints of high pressure being present in eastern Canada as well. Let’s get it done! A few members of the 18z GEFS actually gave us significant snow from the initial wave, but there’s really not much support for that outcome *at this time*

What’d you say to me the other day about debating the illogical with logic? Same person if I recall correctly [emoji1787] it’s becoming quite clear that the member in question doesn’t understand how pattern changes work and that it takes some time for things to unfold downstream when the PAC reshuffles. The pattern beginning to change on the 29th doesn’t mean we will have a snow setup on the 30th. It typically means that we should begin to see snow chances pop up on guidance 7-10 days after, and that still hinges on other things lining up correctly. Some folks need a quick refresher it seems. I know it’s been snowless around here the past 2 years but damn. On a real note, thanks for the quick fact check. Guidance has, so far, done a solid job with the longwave pattern 10-15 days out. No two ways about it. And you were the first person to say models were rushing a snowstorm for the 29th timeframe. The pattern change was still coming as advertised, but that there was very little shot things would come together within 4 days to see a snowstorm materialize. Makes sense given the number of moving pieces impacting the impending changes at H5. January 4-5th is our first shot at *SOME* snow, but not as good as our chances for the 8th-9th. That could be the first true areawide SECS to track this winter

Show us young Jidi

Someone got coal for Christmas this morning. Sheesh

This frame here definitely intrigues me. The big storm being shown today is roughly 2 weeks out but the pattern load up that eventually rolls downstream to setup that storm is depicted at day 7-8. This timeframe will be crucial to watch over the next 5ish days

High pressure in a nice spot anchored in there too. Cold with lots of precip. Gotta love gulf lows bombing underneath a legit air mass. Beautiful at h5 too. Only 2 weeks away…. [emoji2957]

Do we perhaps have something to track inside one week?! Even if it’s not the stronger signal of the 2, I’d gladly take a smaller event to kick things off.

January 2nd appetizer, 6th we get the money shot. Willing it into existence!

Running out of weeks? Winter started 3 days ago [emoji1787]

Looking at minute details 14-15 days out is pretty pointless. Models will probably go from showing a NC jackpot to a DC jackpot to a Detroit jackpot and back again over the next 7-8 days. Which is what we should expect this far out. We’re seeing the large envelope of solutions being depicted in individual members at range (January 4-6 timeframe) which will narrow with passing time. Things we know: a legitimate airmass that can support snow is coming and we have a very active STJ in place that will be sending a parade of SWs across the southern half of the country. Pretty solid signal for a bob chill train w to e train pattern to unfold The details and timing are not going to be ironed out for quite some time. Getting into passionate debates this far out is pretty pointless.

We were looking at all rain and temps in the 50s 3 days before the first snowfall of the season. Ended up with 3” here. Not counting out the 29th quite yet. Still a ways to go. I’d take another small event early on in the new pattern if we can get one before mecs/hecs hunting season.

Mid 40s for highs today and currently sitting at 34 degrees. Enjoying the “torch”

Hot DAMN the GEFS looked good earlier this evening. You almost have to double and triple take looking at these 500mb / H5 outputs out of utter disbelief that a) they look as good as they do and b. they’re actually improving incrementally as time goes on. Still some time for things to change of course, but it’s definitely encouraging that we’re only about 7 days away from the start of the pattern change. Let’s keep it going!

Those are 500mb heights. .

My point exactly. The window for a biggie doesn’t open for another 10+ days. Seeing fantasy land OP runs show digital blue certainly doesn’t “mean everything”. In fact, it kinda means nothing. Models are going to show a wide envelope of outcomes at this range. OP GFS showed a MECS last night, and lost it today. It’ll probably show back up tomorrow at 6z. It’s nothing more than noise at this range. No need to freak out over long range OP runs. One thing is for sure… we have a ton of agreement on models regarding the longwave pattern shift coming in a little less than 2 weeks, and it looks like it could be the best 5H pattern we’ve had in quite some time. Some folks need to chilllll. This is a marathon, not a sprint.

Like this?? Or do you need to see it on every single OP run at the 15 day range just to appease your worried mind? Come on Ji. You’ve come so far. Reel it back in.

Stop looking at long range snowfall means. Jesus.

The infamous bob chill train pattern. Cold pressing up top with compressed heights with a train of shortwaves riding to our south. Little room for mid levels to get torched and the best chance of seeing area wide snow without a major screw zone

When bob gets excited about the impending longwave pattern, you know shit is getting real. My dude doesn’t come back for fantasy looks. .

Only 330 to go.. [emoji12] Obviously this will change 3949583929 times between now and then and we can’t take this with anything more than a micron of salt - being a long range OP run - but generally speaking, it’s nice to see fantasy storms lining up with bullish ensemble forecasts for a change. There’s actual support at h5 for these looks, instead of hopelessly praying that these D15 looks will somehow defy a shitty pattern. Also nice to see models continue to track storms up the coast. Just a matter of time before we cash in. My best general guess? In the 12/28-12/31 timeframe we see an appetizer storm which will likely dump most of its snow well inland. However, *some* frozen is possible closer to the coastal plain. This storm drags the boundary south, setting the stage for something significant in the 1/1-1/7 timeframe. Some LR ensembles have hinted at a quasi 50/50 setting up shop in this timeframe as high pressure begins to build in eastern Canada It’s game time folks! We’re roughly 5-7 days away from having legitimate threats to track. Hope to see models continue to hone in on the -EPO -NAO +PNA idea currently being floated on some ensembles. Doesn’t get much better than having an active southern jet as cold air finally gets unlocked and transported our direction. Having the necessary mechanisms in place to keep that cold air in place? The proverbial dagger for debs. Let’s do this.

Pics or it didn’t happen

My friend in Kentucky saw accumulating snow today… that can’t be a bad sign [emoji41] 26 degrees out here in UB

As we all know, Niño winters tend to be backloaded historically, so the idea of more persistent blocking showing up from mid/late January through February makes sense. If we are able to cash in on a respectable storm or two (3-6 / 4-8 type) from Dec 28 - January 14th, we should be setup nicely to end the season at or above normal as far as snowfall is concerned. Imagine we’ll see a week or two where the pattern reloads in mid January before the grand finale during prime climo (late Jan thru feb) Let’s get ‘er done! General thought looking at today’s models remains the same. Models are showing a crap load shortwaves flying around both the NS / SS, while the NA and PAC are reshuffling. The next 10-14 days look extremely chaotic, which means we could see a discreet threat show up in the short to medium range. Could also mean we get nada. Trend will hopefully be our friend. No use in getting too bogged down on specifics from range. The exact surface depiction will change 4x a day with that many waves flying around.

The December / Christmas torch theory has been long debunked. It’s already 12/19. Most models indicate that a reshuffle of the pattern begins in the coming 8-10ish days. We’ve known that December won’t be a torch for weeks now. A few days in the upper 40s to 50s? Sure. But no 60-80 degree days like recent years past. The current 10 day forecast calls for only 1 day above 50 for a high IMBY with nighttime temps below freezing 7 out of 10 of those days. Much different feel this year. Especially after getting a few inches of snow unexpectedly last week.