jayyy

Except 2-3 days later, the energy off the west coast comes onshore and deepens into yet another trough, with heights pumping out east. Eek.

GEPS looks like it was *trying* to get something going.

00z icon tried it… but too progressive

An inland low surrounded by 4 highs, what could go wrong [emoji23] .

Yay, another 12 feet of snow for the Cali mountains lol

What? The Ukie and Canadian showed snowstorms as well. Euro GFS showed big hits for the lower Hudson valley for days. Things fell apart for NYC metro big time within the final 48 hours.

192 hours away lol. 90+% of storms this year and in this pattern too have trended further north. Ask NYC. They were teed up for a sizable snowstorm on most models until 24-36 hours before yesterdays event. Hell, it looked like we could get hit 6 days ago by yesterdays event. There’s a ton of time left. We’re talking about a storm 6-7 days out. The difference between the storm sliding out to sea south of us and running up the coast comes down to wave spacing in this case. Some crazy shift at h5 isn’t needed to make this work. Your pessimism is completely understandable given our luck this year, but I wouldn’t count us out yet. Especially inland areas.

We haven’t been failing because of the pac this month though. It’s been the NS. The pac hasn’t been ideal, but it also hasn’t been hostile the past couple of weeks either. We have seen tons of snowstorms over the years with a negative or neutral PNA. The fails lately have been because of the NS. Still time for this one to improve but if we keep our expectations low we won’t be disappointed

Either the NS or that 1030-1040 high (depending on the model) not being there come game time.

Lets get this look inside 150!

He’s also been saying we can score with proper timing. Especially his area and mine in northern MD. Peep the 0z GEFS btw. Cold and not suppressed. It’s not going to be easy, clearly, but my latitude can snow into April. Not counting it out unless we get below 150 hours and it looks bleak. Cautious interest for now. It is winter 22-23 in the mid Atlantic after all.

Low skirts offshore at 204. Suppressed.

Low still remains in place at 198. 18 hours and counting with that low stuck in SC. Weird evolution there. Snow breaking out.

High slides east and weakens a bit afterward. The low hasn’t moved at all from SC between hours 180-192. Likely ends up being warmer than we’d like but that’s okay. Signal remains.

Surface depiction at 180. 1042 high in a great spot. Snow breaking out in VA along the blue ridge and western NC. OP surface Details aren’t imperative at this range but the solid miller A signal is still there.

Precisely why it will work [emoji23]

Somehow still snowing up here. Impressed to say the least. 22” total. Elevated areas to the E/NE of here saw 2-3 feet

Reports from the general area I’m in (Pittsfield) 18” was the official report 2-3 hours ago. Now at 19.5. As expected, the elevations east of here are reporting 24-30”+. My good friend (technically my ex [emoji23]) lives at 1800ft in S Vermont and is approaching 40”

Band rotation into the W MA / E NY area continues. 19.5” OTG. Probably another 3-4 and this sucker will be over. Helluva storm to watch unfold.

19.5” in Pittsfield area. Wonderful storm to witness .

It varies greatly in that area. My friends in Schenectady only got 8” while some other areas easily saw over a foot. Shadow effect is real up there. Elevated Places SW of Albany and east of Albany tends to cause sinking air in the valley .

17” in Pittsfield proper per local reports. Wild storm .

Too early for me to get too invested in the details. Zero shot I’m tracking relatively minute changes at h5 4X a day over the next 200 hours. The threat is there… as PSU said, the peak of the pattern meets the end of snow climo. Details won’t get ironed out this far out and the difference between 6z’s depiction and last nights miss is noise at this range. All we need to know is the threat is there for now. If it’s still there sub 150 hours, let’s track the fuck out of it.

Incredible storm so far. 9.7” in 6 hours according to the local gauge. Closing in on a foot of snow. An impressive 18” or so inches likely to fall. Places just east of here in the elevations of the green mountains will surpass 30”. Already 2 feet OTG in places near Hampshire county

9” in Pittsfield MA Another 8-9” is looking likely Great storm so far