jayyy

00z euro / eps time … Hopefully it doesn’t attempt to link the block with the SE ridge like some other models are hinting at. The block seems to be trending south on some models (too far south) and it ends up overwhelming the pattern by linking with the SE ridge. All as the west coast trough gets stuck and amplifies along the WC. That’s the evolution that destroys our potential pattern and gives us a similar result to when our Christmas time pattern change fail happened. Hopefully it’s just the models picking up on current conditions but who knows.

I will most definitely be posting Jeb walk pics tomorrow! Can hear the snow whipping against our hotel room window. Fatty snowflakes are falling with temps just above freezing. Glad I don’t have to shovel this shit.

I grew up 30mi north of NYC in the lower Hudson valley and can recall countless wave 2 scores after initial storms cut to our west or directly overhead. Of course, the boundary didn’t need to push as far south up there in comparison to our area and they can also score even when the boundary push is temporary. Transition storms are fairly regular for that area. Our latitude requires the mechanisms necessary to 1) push the boundary further south and 2) keep it in place (blocking and a 50/50) which is why it doesn’t pan out nearly as often as where I grew up. It’s not an easy feat for our area, but if we get the -EPO, -NAO, 50/50 combo, it certainly helps our chances. It’s certainly happened before.

What do you mean by worked out? The boundary naturally gets pulled further south directly after a wave passes through. The problem is we haven’t had a mechanism in place to maintain lower heights / keep the boundary in place and the SER continues to donkey punch us into submission because of it. With a block and a 50\50 forecasted to evolve, heights would remain lower in the east and allow the boundary to come south and stay south. The caveat to this result is if the west coast trough amplifies / stalls instead of ejecting east, pumping heights in the SE ahead of it.

I assume they “do their best” to emulate forecasted condition changes, but I made the point earlier that initialization also matters. If models are initializing in a block-less, phase 7 pattern, I have to assume it’s POSSIBLE that they adjust over the coming days as the MJO transitions into phase 8. A strong phase 8 at that. .

Best case scenario our wave 1 is NOT a Midwest / plains superstorm that simply cuts to our west, the boundary is subsequently dragged south, our 500mb pattern evolves, and we score on 1-2 waves between 14-21st. So long as wave 1 doesn’t become a monster that drops 50” in the heartland, and evolves somewhat similarly to todays storm, we should hopefully be prime for the follow up. Ensembles are still worlds apart. OPs are flip flopping all over the place run to run. More likely than not that we don’t cash in on wave 1, but I think it’s also safe to say that when the envelop ranges from a coastal higher (Canadian) to a low in Indiana (GFS), we also don’t have our final solution anywhere close to nailed down.

33F heavy snow Schenectady, NY 4.5” total accumulation over the last 6 hours 8+ more expected. I need to travel more often during the winter. Seeing snow helps soothe my bitter weenie soul. It also reminds me that snow still exists.

Current conditions where I am in NY. WWA for 6-9” upped to a WSW for 6-15”. 1.2” in the past hour and 10” expected per Apple’s weather app, now powered by dark sky. Will take pics in the daylight tomorrow AM. Shitty weekend to throw a surprise bday party weather wise [emoji23]

On the ICON, yes. It doesn’t setup the block at all and we torch. .

At least it’s the shitty ICON that never gets anything right. #keepingitpositive

Randy’s the fucking man. COME BACK RANDY .

Better outcome as it pertains to our prospects for the PSU wave (wave #2) No mega storm in the plains to breakdown the pattern. At least we have that. Trying to keep it positive.

It was sleeting in Columbia Maryland (20 miles WSW of Baltimore) at 42 degrees today and snowed in northern Maryland with some minor accumulation in the upper 30s. Certainly possible for the BX and Rockland / westchester county area.

Helluva signal for New York and NE. I guess if this time period were to fail, which who knows if it will, it would be because we’re too far south and NYC to BOS sees an epic to historic winter finale. Think that’s always been the far more likely fail scenario than suppression.

Also, side question… and I know it tip toes near the “don’t talk about this” topic, but do the effects of AGW make it harder for these storms out west to stay relatively weak as they attempt to traverse east? Making it harder for them to swing under the block?Larger temp gradient = more amplification = we’re in trouble. Just a random thought. I know it’s silly to correlate such a topic to specific weather events, but the trend has been undeniable all season, which is a larger sample size. These SW out west just strengthen and dig and refuse to slide east, which inevitably screws things up @ H5 on our side of the country. Or is that more of a product of the Niña, unhelpful PAC, Aleutian situation, etc?

Just read a shit load of posts / poo-poo’ing about the GEFS and EPS, but what did the GEPS have to say today? I’ve been at work. .

But the niña isn’t what it was earlier this season. That bitch is all but dead. It’s a tough emotional rollercoaster when everything’s failed us all winter. I get it. Im there too. But we’ve also failed over and over in the midst of a MISERABLE longwave pattern. Outside of a few 2-3 day windows where we had a potential thread the needle opportunity arise, that pattern has persisted since January. PSU hammered down on that point all winter long. We failed because the setup was god awful and we were praying for things to work out in a setup with a near 0 success rate for our region. For the first time in 5 months, we are heading into a strong MJO phase 8. We have blocking, a 50/50 low, etc. La Niña is also finally dying out. The atmosphere is going through a complete overhaul, so I REALLY think we need to be patient with models at this range. There is little chance they are going to be able to nail down these details at range or be consistent in how they analyze them. Initialization is pretty crucial to any given models output, and they are initializing in a completely different pattern. This all matters. Which is why we need to step back and analyze the teleconnections and the evolution at 500mb, and allow the OPs to figure themselves out along the way. Even the fail solutions are WILDLY different from run to run. This gives me near zero confidence that their outcomes are correct either. Not saying we HECS, but I see zero consistency, which means we need to be patient.

I suspect he may have a life to live outside of calming down weenies. He also does so in two forums.

Ensembles do look good. Some look VERY good. Saying otherwise would be a flat out lie. Your inability to not live and die by snowfall maps and OP runs at 10+ days isn’t Brooklyn’s problem. Don’t be a jabroni.

I know your name is stormtracker, but I didn’t mean you [emoji23]

We haven’t had the mechanisms in place to kick the WC trough east all season though. We all have PTSD. That much is very, very clear. .

Thank you. I get people are snow starved but FFS, if folks can’t handle the run to run fluctuations on OPs, stop tracking 8-15 day threats 4x a day. We’re talking day 1 stuff here; not living and dying by OP runs and controls at long range, or getting mad at a 240+ hour clown maps. There is NO world where the euro, Canadian, gfs or any other model’s OP (at long range) shows a consistent solution. The fact that the EPS / GEPS have held strong and the GEFS has trended in their direction is all we need to know. It takes very small changes up top to completely change the outcome of an OP run. The difference between a bomb off the coast or a bomb running through PA is noise at range on an OP. IF the ensembles start trending the wrong way and deterministic players start looking unfavorable, THEN we can start worrying. Considering how complex the setup is, the consistency of the EPS & GEPS has been pretty remarkable. Breathe y’all.

This is why I said last night that I’m pissed cmc showed a massive dead hit blizzard. Any OP run that shows otherwise will have people freaking out. Wait. For. The. Ensembles. Fuckers.

Can we get the other Ji back?

PSU just literally said otherwise [emoji23]