jayyy

euro pushes precip south of here .

RGEM is juiced and north .

It is interesting to see the GFS/Euro focus on the southern part of the area, while the ICON RGEM and Canadian focus things further north. Euro plops a HP in Ohio, which appears to push the wave south. I’m just as snow hungry as the next weenie, but being on the wrong side of a Euro/GFS vs. RGEM/Icon/CMC fight is probably not the place we want to be. NAM is a sheered out mess too. .

I’ll take what the RGEM is smoking for $20 please. .

06z GFS tries to being the 2/5 wave up the coast, but it skirts offshore too far south. .

0c down at the VA / NC border too. Plenty of cold air to work with with a 1037 high there. Come on baby, let’s reel one of these suckers in. Was hoping to cash in in some capacity on a couple of these waves, but it may be the final wave leading into a pattern shift which could produce our first legit areawide snowfall. Those are often the bigger waves too and we certainly aren’t foreign to pattern shift storms in these parts.

Oy vay [emoji88] .

28.5F. Crisp out there. This cold-dry / warm-wet pattern can shove it man. Hoping we cash in next week! Congrats to those finally getting some nice upslope in the mountains! Cam feeds looked awesome today. .

This formatted very odd on my phone. It’s all in a line. What ENSO state was 2010 Edit — nvm!

No worries man. It’s been a very frustrating past 6+ years all around. Sorry to hear you’ve got some personal stuff going on. Hope everything is alright. .

Looks really similar to me. Is it hanging back more energy? I’m looking on a mobile device too FYI so I may be missing something. .

It’s a forum. Meant for discussion. A discussion anyone is welcome to join in on, as long as they keep it civil and respectful. I’ll say it again. I sincerely apologize if you took what I said personally or as if I was “throwing it in your face”, but that was not my intention whatsoever. I’ve been here a long time and that’s not something I ever do. Sometimes I get lucky being further west, but my climo is nearly identical to yours. To me, it sounded like you made a very general statement. That’s all. If I misunderstood what you said, I apologize, but there’s no need to get so personal and attack me like you did. Let’s just keep it civil in here man. I’m done replying. It’s exhausting and I don’t want to piss off our awesome admin team.

Appreciate the thought you put into that. .

Aye aye, Cap’n! .

I believe the 00z CMC did as well. A blend of this and the southern scrapers would be swell. ICON juices that wave up for sure Edit — yep, the 00z Canadian. Very similar outside of HP location

Feelings versus analysis .

It’s the icon, and it’s at range, but the low takes an unfavorable track, otherwise we likely get snow out of this. Plenty of time for adjustments. .

Exactly. It’s just snow. I apologize for the banter on my end. I just didn’t appreciate being called childish names and to f**k off for no reason. My town averages 22” of snow per year. His averages 21”. And I’m being yelled at as if I live in deep creek or at wisp. Was just trying to get some clarity on a comment that was made.

Oh for sure! The colder trend is definitely there. I’d take a 1-3” appetizer in a heartbeat. Some snowpack can only help our cause. I guess what I’m getting at is that the overall seasonal trend has been warmer / further north as we get closer and things already look marginal. Call it weather PTSD if you will [emoji23] .

Amen to that. .

The babiest of baby steps, but I’ll take it at range. Would much rather be hoping for a jog north than a jog south though given seasonal trends and the SERs inability to go away for more than a few days. .

As you should! Call it as you see it man. The signal isn’t great verbatim. No denying that. It’s a weak wave that mainly showing southern tracks, but we’ve got time to see this thing come north and at least get an areawide 1-3”/2-4” type deal to calm some nerves. .

Fringed to your north? It’s not like Virginia or the 95 corridor has scored and you haven’t via the fringe job. We just had a 40+” winter up this way in 2020. .

I totally get that and you’re just speaking to what you’re seeing - as you should. However, I’m not too worried just yet by what lower resolution ensembles are showing verbatim at range. They aren’t necessarily going to pick up on the specifics of a boundary wave at this range - IE: extent of how far north precip gets or the intensity of said precip. Plenty of time for things to change. If we get to D5 and OPs show no signal, I’ll move on. .

If we had a flush hit on the models at this range, we’d probably be saying there’s too much time for this to trend away and it’ll be snowing in PA and NY by the time we get to game time. Glad to see cold air around with snow to our south. That’s step one IMO. .