jayyy

It appears it’s happening. The problem is, we have no clue how it’ll impact us, and models will likely be even more volatile than usual as they try to figure it out over the next week or so. Have a feeling models are going to be all over the place. Hopefully this SWW does what we need it to and doesn’t fail in disrupting the PV.

Yessssss, another d10 possibility to track. What could go wrong!? .

Have to think our latitude scores at least once in that late feb - march timeframe. We do late season snowfall fairly well up this way. Would absolutely love to see everyone get in on the action, but it’d be truly historically shitty if your area over to mine continued to strike out through march too. .

DTs been making snowmaps that look like a kid drew with crayons on a piece of paper based off the GFS past 72 hours his entire career. What a turd. I’m shocked anyone still listens to anything he has to say. .

Canadian with a PERFECT track and a rainstorm. Get fucked Canada. This is an easy 6-12+ storm for the entire area with a cold air mass in place. I loathe this goddamn winter.

RGEM is warm. 540 line is near Canada lol. dynamic storm nonetheless, with heavy FRZR in SWVA and snow on the backside of the low. .

NAM @ 60. Talk about dynamic. Look at the 850s in Louisiana and east Texas. They’re quite cold here as well (-5 to -10) leading in. If only we had some damn blocking or a cold air source up north.

Very curious to see how NAM handles this as we get a bit closer. It looked quite cold leading in. -6 @ 850 in Georgia from that 850 bombing out. Wild if it plays out that way and they get smoked

Considering most areas around here average around 20” annually, yeah, that makes sense. .

Same here! Seeing 58 today gave me a little bit of “eh fuck it, bring on spring” mentality. Just give me ONE good snowstorm to end this god awful winter and I’ll be happy to move on. .

This thing is just close enough to keep me interested up this way. Interest fading, but still existent. 4.5 days out is enough time to see major changes. .

Watching it snow to our south from a dynamic 850 as it primarily rains up here is the grand finale fuck you from old man winter lol. The euro lays down 1-1.5” out this way, but we’ll see. PS - I really dislike the idea of having to bank on march to salvage any part of this god awful winter, but LR models are showing a very solid look for early march and have been quite consistent with it. Problem is it’s still 3-4 weeks away and that could also go poof I also wouldn’t be terribly shocked if we saw an epic march if the niña dies out as forecasted and the PAC becomes much more favorable, especially if we get some much needed blocking. Why the fuck not right? We get a god awful meteorological winter and then it snows when people are ready for spring [emoji23]

NAM extrapolation, especially the 12k nam.. = useless .

Gfs has been very consistent since 18z. Can’t discount it entirely but we should definitely be proceeding with extreme caution with such an extreme island solution being depicted. Curious to see if it carries this solution through 0z and whether or not the euro trends this way today. We’re entering its prime range around D5, especially 00z tonight.

I’ll be in Ohio from 2/10-2/13 for Super Bowl weekend. It’s a yearly tradition where a bunch of my childhood friends get together just outside Toledo. That will be the weekend it finally snows here, watch! I got lucky when I went up to Albany and Rochester a few weeks back. Doubt it happens a third time. So, book it, between 2/10-2/13 we see an east coast snowstorm. .

We’re still in prime season for snow. All of February is wide open. Lets get through the next 4 weeks first, which appears to have at least 2 windows for snow chances.

Pretty confident we’ll get one nice storm to hang our hats on this winter over the next 4-5 weeks, even if it’s been a disappointing season wholistically. If BWI sees a foot of snow between now and April, it’d end up 8” shy of its annual average. In 2010, BWI saw 70+” of snow on the season. BWI only averages around 20” because shitty winters happen with a fair amount of regularity in these parts. Yeah yeah. It’s not been “this bad”, but it’s been awfully close plenty of times. Perhaps we do get shutout the rest of the winter, but to pretend like we know that because we’re salty about how December & January unfolded is a bit ridiculous. If the base state begins to turn less hostile toward mid to late month, as is being forecasted, we could certainly score a win or two on the backend of what’s been an otherwise awful winter. Weirder things have happened than getting a snowstorm or two in an overall shitty winter. See January 2016 for reference.

Sure is. I’m really not trying to be a dick, but that’s exactly what this thread is for. Analyzing the mid to LR pattern… good or bad. We all have the same feelings about this god awful winter, and we have a banter and an end of snow forever thread so that people can vent their frustrations about it. I honestly don’t get why some people come in here just to complain if they’re so certain it won’t snow again. It’s annoying to parse through all of that BS when attempting to read posts made by CAPE and others analyzing the LR.

That’s 9 days out too. Yeah, I know, “it’ll likely fade as we approach” but no one cares to hear seventeen people say the same thing or that it’ll never snow again every time a possible threat pops up. And I don’t mean PSU, who gives us well thought out posts about WHY and the meteorology behind it, but all of the other banter.

Made this point the other day. I get it’s been a shitty winter but it’s annoying as shit to come in to LR thread to see analysis and all you see is “it’s the end of snow as we know it” banter. For fucks sake. We have multiple other threads for that. Thank you for continuing to analyze every day, as painful as it’s been. .

So was January 2016. It was 80 on Christmas and it was quite warm after too. You’re telling me you wouldn’t jump for joy if we scored a nice storm during a shit pattern?

It’s the first day of February. It didn’t barely avoid anything quite yet lol .

Fat flakes starting to fall. Mulch, car tops, and deck caving. Gotta love it. .

Precip in and around DC right now (SW of downtown) looks like it means business. .

Respectable returns overhead near DC and N VA.