jayyy

Not actually true. 2/9/10 (storm #2 of snowmaggedon) was an Alberta clipper which reintensified off the NJ coast. But who’s counting [emoji23] I very much miss the days of Alberta clippers. We used to get a solid amount of snow each year from them in the lower Hudson valley in NY. Each season, you’d usually see one or two blow up off the jersey / LI coast. Many would jackpot eastern Long Island to cape cod, but every so often we’d get a solid 4-8” jack just north of NYC if it bombed out in time.

Which clown cares more about digital snow than real snow? [emoji23] or gets completely deflated by a clown map printed by an OP model 9 days out? We REALLY need some snow out of this next window to bring the sanity back to this forum. It’s depressing AF in here. Glad to see models converging on the idea of a Bob Chill setup for the final week of January. Been saying this all winter long - it’s our best hope to see snow. Overrunning patterns are going to work out more often than banking on 8 variables to break our way. Cold air dome + an active jet out of the SW riding waves underneath us = key to success. If we can get some blocking to slow things down, perhaps we see one of these storms blow up along the coast.

I’m actually pretty intrigued by the 23rd potential for my latitude. I know the 95 and metro crew isn’t going to be thrilled, but the northern crew definitely has a shot at some snow during that appetizer storm. .

Perfect spot to be 9 days out honestly? .

Been saying this all winter long. We’re not going to win out 9/10 times with complicated setups. There’s just been so much working against us in the longwave pattern. We need a window where the PAC chills out (our advertised -EPO) which would in turn relax the constant W-E flow which keeps eroding every cold air mass we get. This would in turn allow the boundary to get pulled south and for us to score a win or two with an active jet. Models seem to be converging on the idea of us seeing a period where we have a relaxed PAC, a cold air source, and an active southern jet. If these all line up, we could see a few light to moderate events from storms riding the boundary south of us. IF we can also get a -NAO, as CAPE pointed out, that’s how we potentially get a more significant snowstorm out of this. .

Decent amount of agreement among models regarding there being snow chances in the window from the 23rd thru end of the month. Nice to see the potential within 7 days, instead of 10-14+ Could see a scenario where wave 1 (mostly rain) drags the boundary south, creating snow cover to our NW, with a possible second wave tracking shortly behind it with a fresh airmass to tap into. Especially if wave 1 acts as a quasi-50/50 to slow things down with proper spacing between waves. The expected -EPO and resulting relaxation of the hostile PAC could be the key ingredient we need to finally see a legit chance at snow as we’d finally get a small break from the very progressive flow we’ve dealt with all winter. I’m also not entirely sold on this idea of a wall to wall torch in February either. I’m fairly positive we see a warm up early on, as the PAC has ultimately won out all season long, but you can also see how we could get a “reload” of the pattern if a few things were to break our way. It’d be an uphill battle though and the chance of failure would certainly be pretty high leading in, as we’d have to bank on a mixture of good timing and some luck to make it work. This winter has been ROUGH, but a decent second half would go a long way toward bringing some sanity back to this board.

The ICON tries to make something happen with wave #2. Boundary doesn’t push far enough south on this run for most of us verbatim (mainly an interior special) but minute details this far out are pretty irrelevant. The chance is definitely there, but we’ll need a lot to go right to cash in.

??? .

Don’t think that’s true actually. .

Pics or it didn’t happen .

I’d take a giant ass trough parked over the EC for all of March with winter / spring air masses battling it out nearby. We’d likely get snow out of that. April is probably what you’re referring to, which is when we’ll be 10 degrees below average with above average rainfall. [emoji23] .

The pronouncement of the SER is going to waffle more than Ji over the next week and change on guidance. .

Agreed. Sure, it’s the worst period ever, but a given period has to hold that title. The fact that it’s happening now sucks, but that doesn’t mean that we’re stuck in this rut forever. It took 50 years for the worst period of all time to change from the 70s to the current period. To me, that has zero bearing on whether or not 2023-2040 will be a good or bad period from a historical standpoint and it doesn’t give us the WHY. If it was true that a historically bad period means we’re doomed forever, then 2000-2015 wouldn’t have been as epic as it was. I don’t see a cause and effect there. We won’t have a hostile pac, or AMO, or some of these other factors in place forever. We can’t make blanket predictions about the future based on what we’re seeing right now. The longwave pattern has been trash for the better part of 6 years. Sure, we’ve had periods of relief from a hostile PAC and some of these other shitty factors (NAO, AO, SER) but they’ve been short lived. A week or two of relief at a time isn’t going to cut it when we’re talking about SO MANY factors working against us. We need a prolonged period of change, otherwise we’re left needing to see everything go right to MAYBE squeeze an event or two out a favorable 500mb setup. When a -EPO, -NAO, +PNA forms, we don’t see an immediate effect. It doesn’t get cold and snowy the next day. It takes some time for these patterns to affect us downstream, and by the time it does, things are already beginning to falling apart. When it doesn’t pan out, we’re left waiting for another period of “relief” That’s no way to achieve a sustained change back toward the norm. Here’s to hoping this our last historically shitty winter for a while. This board needs an epic winter. .

Winter quite literally ends during the 3rd week of march, so yeah, it’s a winter month. Living in the lower Hudson valley in NY most of my life, we had plenty of late march into early April snows. Some of which stuck around for multiple days. When I was in Buffalo for college, I experienced a 18”snowfall during the last week of APRIL and it was just as wonderful as December snow. I guess it’s a mindset thing, but for me - snow is snow. Fuck rooting against it because of the date it falls on. .

Woke up to a beautiful scene during my travels for work here in upstate NY. WWA up for 3-5” locally I almost forgot what snow looked like for a moment. .

Keep the faith ladies. Have a pretty good feeling that we’ll be able to eek a win or two out of this upcoming pattern. My main concern is the duration of said pattern change. How long do we get the -EPO and some relief from the PAC onslaught? Do we get a couple of weeks? A few days? That’s my main concern. Any relief we’ve gotten from the PAC as of late has been very short lived. Hoping we can get at least 2-3 workable setups out of this. Nice to see the GEFS move toward the EPS / GEPS over the last couple of days and not the other way around. .

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I actually like the 25th. Storm #2 after #1 (likely) cuts west and (hopefully) provides us with a temporary 50/50 to push the boundary south. Another domino effect type storm, but that seems to be the best we can hope for right now with this threat. .

I actually don’t mind W/E overrunning type events. We tend to do well and even overperform with these types of setups. Give me a cold dome & some solid CAD with a trailing SLP coming from the Tennessee valley and I’ll gladly roll the dice. I cringe more when I hear the words phasing, redevelopment, ridge / trough axis, etc. That’s when you know we need things to be near perfect (particularly with a hostile PAC) The problem is that the PAC is not allowing any cold air to remain entrenched. There’s also virtually 0 snowpack to our N/NW to draw any cold air into the NW flank of storms that are otherwise taking nice tracks but still giving us cold rain. Generally speaking though, I don’t mind boundary setups. I just don’t like that being the only way we can score. .

They’re not meaningless, they just shouldn’t be relied upon. Ensembles have dozens of individual members - some of which show decent hits for some of these systems, which is why the mean / average shows a few inches. The problem is… we keep ending up verifying the snowless members of these ensembles. No model is meant to be fully leaned on, we know this. They are simply hypothetical outcomes and tools to use in conjunction with one another to assess the most probable outcome. If the GEFS mean shows 3”, but the EPS and CMC show 0”, it’s likely we end up at or near 0”. If the other models agree or show something similar, perhaps the GEFS mean is onto something. The issue is people find a model with a desirable outcome and hug it. They also don’t understand what a “mean” is or what ensembles are actually used for. .

It’s the GEFS, but yeah, desperate times mang. .

I like the 23-25th window for some potential wintry weather. At the moment it appears to be a back to back storm situation where we’re going to have to rely on the first storm (likely a cutter) to be a make-shift 50/50, which could in turn force the storm track south of us for storm #2 and keep enough cold air in place to make something happen. Another “we need the timing to be right” ordeal doesn’t sound great obviously, but it is our next “threat” nonetheless. .

EPS or bust .

That’s my take on it too. I don’t think we’ve lost the ability to get where we need to be. We’ve just seen an epically long period of the PAC overwhelming the living shit out of our climo. Can’t wait for this never ending niña to go away. .

Agreed. You’re definitely right about the TPV. When it displaced southeast in late December, we got some epic cold for 3 days and then it scoured out awfully quickly, which is of little help when we’re looking for snow. I’d much rather have it stay put and throw workable cold air our way (EPS) then overwhelm us and then scour out (GEFS) Being in the 30s with snow chances for a couple weeks sounds much better than a few days in the teens and being bone dry. .