jayyy

https://imageshack.com/i/pny4M3eGj

my buddy’s deck just NW of downtown Albany 

5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

After it turned back to snow I went to bed it turned to heavy sleet when I got upstairs...still looks like an inch or so extra because I cleared the steps and driveway and both are solidly covered. Fun storm...not sure my location change got me more or less snow....but it did get me a good dinner and company 

5" total snow/sleet

Not too shabby man! Glad you got to enjoy some good company <3

9 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Visiting my parents house in the Hudson valley, pretty nice storm here but looks like we’re just south of the area that got nuked.  Maybe 10-12 inches here with a lot of drifting.  I brought my snowshoes and hiking gear, gonna drive up to the Catskills and play in the deep powder tomorrow. 

Albany is under that death band right now. Just FaceTimed with my buddy - UNREAL. 5” per hour rates 

Ended up with an additional 2” from that band overnight, bringing the storm total to 10” - current snow depth is 9” due to compacting 

Unreal. 33” report at NWS Binghamton. Sounds like @PhineasC should have stayed at home.  
 

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This band that just popped up over Winchester was modelled very well by the HRRR. Maybe that is a good sign for the band later for you MD guys. 

Banding popping overhead in carroll county as we speak. It’s purdy out there. 

Down to 27 degrees. 
SN

3 minutes ago, Herb@MAWS said:

Went back to mod sleet during last 45 mins. Just slightly ironic that changeover occurred during my high temp 32.8. Altho have just dropped to 32.4 in last 15 mins. 

Because the surface temp isn’t what changed you over. 

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Think this is where we ended up. Glad people enjoyed referencing it! Hope we can fill one out again soon.

How is this the first time I’ve ever seen this? Epic. 

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I measured another inch of mostly sleet with some freezing rain and snow mix over the last 4 hours...on top of the 7" of snow I measured that fell between 11am and 5PM.   So 8" storm total as of now but my depth is still 7" due to compacting.  

Same here - pretty much to the tee. What’s your thinking on timing for the ULL?

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Back building radar!? Bingo bingo!! Where’s that damn bingo card. Lol. 

Dropped that just for you Scraff

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

IF....dangerous word...the euro idea is correct another band develops behind the current back edge as the upper level support closes off and catches up to the surface low in the next few hours.  I think that band will develop...its on ALL guidance now...but some develops it up over PA and some over MD.  We will see soon.  

So... what you’re saying is that it splits the difference and pops over you and I?

Good catch man. 

1 minute ago, EB89 said:

Heavy snow. 

Enjoy it! SN+ here as well. Looks like it’ll slow down in the next 15 min or so but damn, it’s beautiful out there. 

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh wow...we're still stuck at 34 up here...hope we can get in on the ULL...

1-4am is the likely timeframe if it materializes. Don’t look now, but there may be some back building commencing as we speak. ULLs gotta swing through eventually. 

Man... I hope that ULL produces later, but I’m just happy to see some more SN+ before it’s over. Pad those stats baby 

Reports of it pouring sleet near turf valley from my old stomping grounds.  

Heavy snow

28 degrees 

My buddy lives in clearfield, PA and reported 3.8” in an hour. INSAAAAAANE

5 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Something I'm not understanding... maybe someone smart can explain it to me.  According to SPC Mesoanalysis, the SLP has basically taken a perfect track - the kind of track that had models spitting out ridiculous totals for us even along I95. The models (at least the runs over the past 24h) seemed to have nailed the event for I95 - quick thump, quick changeover, rain rest of the event, 1-3".  What I'm not understanding is that the models came to that conclusion based on an SLP that tracked basically right over Delmarva.  The SLP didn't do that - its at least 25-50 miles east of all guidance but we still ended up with the same result.

Am I missing something?

850 low never closed off, allowing warm air to scream north. It’s early winter, barely below freezing, with relatively warm ocean waters compared to deep winter. If we had a closed 850 low south of here, this was an easy 12+ area wide  

Just now, DDweatherman said:

And as @psuhoffman said the NAM was out, it throws us some snow tonight on the 0z.

That ULL catches the coastal quick enough and I think our area sees an additional 3” or so

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@mappy @losetoa6 @Eskimo Joe @HighStakes @showmethesnow @DDweatherman 

I have been super busy all day...today was a big due day for tons of paperwork and reports before the holiday break.  So forgive me if this was discussed, I haven't been able to keep up.  But wanted to highlight the chances for our area tonight to get a little surprise.  I am going to use the 18z euro because it has been the most consistent on the train...shown it for 5 runs straight now and it gets more pronounced every run.  For the record the NAM's don't really like this idea...the HRRR is hit or miss run to run, but the RGEM 10K and 3K both are in the euro camp.  

We can see that area of precip breaking out to our SW in response to the mid and upper level energy approaching from the ohio valley...

 

 

But as of now that energy is not phased up with the coastal and the developing precip is mostly mid and upper level instability related without any connection to the deep moisture transport associated with the coastal system.

However...by 6z we can see the mid and upper levels have caught up and are phasing in with the coastal system and the results to the banding of precip (if that does indeed happen in sync like that) over our area.

As the mid and upper level energy catches up to the surface system and phases that mid and upper level energy and instability will now have access to deeper moisture transport from the coastal.  So we see the banding associated with it really explode.  Keep in mind this is a 1 hour precip plot so that is heavy precip across all of central and northeastern MD.  The red line denotes where I believe the rain snow line would be at this time.  Looking at soundings across guidance the wam layers left at that time are thin enough that heavy precip would overcome north of that line...but that precip moves out slowly over the next 4 hours and that line sags south a bit.  

This next plot is the precip associated with that band that falls between 3z and 9z.  The purple line is my estimate of where north of there all of this would be snow.  The red line is the southern extent of where the changeover gets before about 80% of the precip is moving out.  Not saying there cannot be any snow TV south of that line...but that is my estimate of where I think it is reasonable to think accumulating snowfall could get with this band.  But keep in mind...if that band were to really get going more then even this prog shows....it could cool the column as the heights crash further south.  Stranger things have happened.  Probably the best example of a banding feature like this maxing out was that xmas day miracle snow we got in 2002.  

From the QPF if the euro is correct this could actually be a pretty sizeable amount along the northern tier of MD.  Some places could get 4-6" which is an event in its own right.  Maybe even more if everything maxes out perfectly.  Of course...if the mid and upper level energy fails to sync up perfectly it could all just be a band of light precip that cannot overcome the leftover warm layers near 800mb and nothing comes of it.  

Now...how likely is this.  The Euro has been doubling down every run for over 24 hours.  The short range Canadian twins agree.  The HRRR is kinda in between and the NAM says no thank you...it has the banding but too light to trigger the cooling needed to result in anything significant south of the PA line.  The upper level pass is slightly north of ideal...but not bad.  The mid level pass is really good.  It's a matter of do they sync up right.  Models suck at that.  These things surprise both good and bad all the time.  I am going to be an optimist here and say this does come together and we have a decent shot at some accumulating snow across the northern tier of MD tonight.  

 

 

 

we love when you talk dirty. 
 

Thank you for the breakdown. I hope so! I’m dead smack in that area

Dark sky says moderate to heavy snow between 10 and 2. It nailed this storm (6-8” forecast)

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Great news for us up here. 

Bring it

14 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Called 5-8" here in our neck of the woods in northern Carroll. If the backend does anything like the Euro said, I'll barely bust low, otherwise its a pretty spot on forecast. Sitting at 7" after part 1. 

7” here as well. Solid 5-8” call 

27 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea that's definitely the mix line working back east on the 0.5° CC. I like our chances on the back end, at least north of I-70.

I’m thinking a line from walkersville to thurmont and points NE have a shot - albeit small -  at a few inches if the stars (column cooling & precip) align. Think the far NW crew may just be too far west with a low moving away from the area and south of 70 in Howard / Baltimore counties is probably too far south for any meaningful QPF.  

backend snow rarely pans out ... BUT it definitely can from time to time. Experienced my fair share of backend thumps growing up in the near NW suburbs of NYC. Places 15-20 mins north of me in Bear mountain and points NNW would see all snow 12+“ from a nor’easter - meanwhile we’d see a few inches on the front end, go to sleet / IR at the height as the low passed by offshore, and end as snow as the low pulled away south of Long Island. Granted they are in a better location up there for this to occur, but it can definitely happen here as well.