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jayyy

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Posts posted by jayyy

    January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Wait for tomorrow to come and go before leaning either way on Friday’s potential.....

    come on... let’s learn a lesson for once, shall we? Equal chance we see 2-3 than we see 0” on Friday. We need to know what tomorrow’s energy does, how strong it gets, and how it affects 500 mb pattern overall as Friday approaches. 

    H5 and 500 show potential on gfs and fv3... with light snows. that’s all we need to see at this point. Relax on the details.  

    MLK Weekend Event - Making Lemonade Out of Lemons

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    A track like that which goes south of us to ocean city, and a more strung out low, is exactly what we need to keep cold air in place and limit warm air from surging ahead of the low aka for it to snow. Literally the only solution that we could squeak a decent snowstorm out of. Especially for the Baltimore area 

    Unlikely to occur...as it’s a lonely outlier, but hell, ya never know... maybe, like last weekend, it is sniffing out a trend early and we see 6z Globals trend that way. GFS, Euro, GGEM, and UKMET all shifted SE tonight. Now.. we just need it to go south another 75 miles and we’re talkin!

    • Like 1

    January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

    At this point, I think we have an equal chance of a front end thump to a back end changover. 

    False. Back end changeovers rarely happen. Front end WAA thumps before the CAD erodes happen here frequently.  Christmas 01 I believe is like the only major back end thump I can think of and I was in New York for it. Driving rain to 13” of snow on the back end in 6 hours time. A rarity indeed. 

    January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Fozz said:

    Damn.... that is so close to being something really good for us.

    Still plenty of time. Only thing holding back my excitement for Baltimore and northern part of the forum is the trend this year has been to go north, not south. But.. hell, I’ll take one reversal for this storm!

    • Like 1

    January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, mosi76 said:

    I mean you are familiar with this forum, right? :axe:

    Yep. I imagine the mods aren’t trying to make a third post for the same storm due to people jumping off the cliff a few days after most of us received warning level snowfall. I know, not everybody did, but the rate of weenie suicide on this board is asisnine. Love everybody here! We just get a bit.... emotional. 

    • Like 2

    January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    ^ yep. Trend is our friend currently. And please people, do not freak out if today still shows an ice or rain event. As long as it continues to show a flatter solution and less phasing than yesterday, and especially if the western ridge pushes east and the high up north is positioned better in New England instead of the plains, we could still be in the game. 

    • Like 1

    January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    6z will be whacky again. Extremely amped I assume, per  usual. I am however intruiged to see if 12z tomorrow continues the trend of moving the western ridge east and less interaction between the jet streams. Ideally, the shortwave never ejects from the southwest and we see another southern slider like last weekend. as bob said, a late partial phase would be ok too. 

    January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    I feel like a broken record... stop writing off storms 3+ days out guys. SERIOUSLY. Models had 1-2” for us last Wednesday for the weekend storm. We’re not even close to being out of the game.

    Two Rules of thumb...

    1) if all of the pieces aren’t on the coastal plain yet, models likely have zero clue what to do with themselves.

    2) never discount a storm when there’s still a storm to pass before it. Models need to see what the leading storm does (strength, track, how it effects the jet stream and overall 500 mb look)

    How often do models underdo the cold shot after a storm passes by? How often do models not pick up the fact that a leading storm has suppressed the flow for a second storm? How often do models depict a high pressure coming in “too late”, just to trend right as we get closer?

    Tonight’s trends went WILDLY in the right direction. Gfs trended from having 52 and rain to 35 degrees for the same timeframe (6z Sunday) in Baltimore proper. EC went from having a few inches in PA, to dumping a foot plus to the MD/PA border. 

    HUGE improvements and a long way to go. Baltimore and points north still have a 25% chance in my eyes of seeing significant snowfall. More like 15% for DC and points south.  

    • Like 4

    January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

    Yep..east side of Baltimore county didn’t fare well today either. I can confirm no new accumulation today, in fact it didn’t even snow much all day even under radar returns. I have to assume dry air in some part of the atmosphere was a problem

    Sinking air to the east as a result of of intense rising air to your west. The storm’s location never allowed for the bands to pivot east. No worries. Well all hopefully cash in this weekend!!

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