jayyy

We absolutely had some excellent analysis the past few days led by @Bob ChiII  @MillvilleWx @Beachinand others. 

Glad we didn’t collectively throw in the towel per usual. I knew we had a decent shot when models had the jackpot in VA about 3.5 days out... best place to be in this setup a few days out is North of the progged bullseye. Planned out just fine! 

Anyway... should be closing in on 4 in the next little while per the deck ruler. Snow is piling up under this band 

band forming over @Bob Chill and points NE into Howard. It’s puuuurrrdy out there no doubt. 

Moderate, borderline heavy snow. 

27.5/25 

Yellows and dark greens from NOVA heading straight toward Baltimore city

Just now, Bob Chill said:

3.7" and rates just picked back up. May be up to 5" after this round of heavier stuff moves through.

Undeniable trend this year with southern shortwaves packing more juice than models were showing even in the short range. What a year around here. I still laugh at last winter's dire Armageddon drought thread. 

You ready for the death band? Cause I sure as heck am. 

1 minute ago, Jebman said:

Thats just wow, like Unbelievable , when you consider that places like Dale City are probably already in excess of 3 inches otg already. Just llok at whats inbound.

There’s already reports of 2-3” all over central Maryland as well. Like I suspected, Montgomery county to Howard county would benefit from a solid location (south enough for QPF- North enough for great snow crystal growth) 

The heavy stuff is knocking on our doorstep again! If NAM is to be believed, we are in for another 5-8” or so

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Hrrr looks good even up here tomorrow 

HRRR and NAM have been hinting at a CCB deformation band forming over Baltimore metro northern md And southern PA for a few consecutive runs now. NAM has done well so far. This too could happen with proper coastal influence. 

1 minute ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

Correlation coefficient radar shows the sleet line has gotten north of Richmond, hopefully it stays south of most of us . 

You’ll be alright in Bowie, sir. Dc proper and southern MD should be okay. South of 66 could run into problem if this storm truly has trended 25+ miles north. Models showed the potential of a warm layer intrusion in the SE quadrant of the storm for days. Think many assumed it would be all snow but more coastal development can easily rush warm air on the SE flank as cold air wraps around the NW. 

4 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

That cooler full?  

Damn right. 

#deckpic 

Just about 3” and counting. Probably a good thing that LWX raised that 3-5” advisory they had up 24 hours ago LOL

Radar is reloading! Should be a really fun next 8-10 hours 

NAM seems to have the best handle so far. Intrigued to see what this coastal does. It’s been hinting at a ton of interaction and deform band for 3 straight runs

Wouldn’t discount the SREF entirely. It sucks ass... until a storm has arrived. That’s what it’s meant for. Only decent a few hours out, otherwise I wouldn’t go near it. HRRR/RAPP is the best combo If you insist on looking at the  models instead of the radar and current OBS haha 

Lmao.. piling up and the heavy stuff hasn’t even come up to HoCo yet. Ratios and dendrite are solid. 

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Does this signify better ratios or just that the column is very good?

Column is great. Ratios for central md And points north will exceed 12:1 in my view. Of course better as you climb north in latitude. Ratios up by PSU Hoffman will be insane which is why he’ll still likely easily get 6+ 

These flakes are wonderful. Steady light to mod snow is accumulating quite rapidly. Flakes are enormous. Snow growth upstairs is looking quite nice up here in central MD. 

Still think the area between Bob Chill in Rockville and BWI / Howard / AA county does superb between being far enough south for QPF and far enough north for much better snow growth than dc and points south. 

1 minute ago, snjókoma said:

HRRR has about 0.3" of precip for DC. 3 or 4 inches seems reasonable for DC.

Stop trolling man. It’s a storm thread, and you’re not even close to being correct. Just stop. 

Steady light snow in Columbia - sticking immediately. I’m going with 4-8” area wide and calling it a day. Time to enjoy. 

34 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Hope you keep on reporting snow because man, that's an ugly dry slot behind this initial band of precip.  It looked like it was filling in an hour or so ago but that would really kink things up for everyone.

Holy crap guys. Did you read the models over the past week? Or just look at QPF output?

there are two portions of this storm my man. InItial waa snows and then from the main low. There is supposed to be a gap and lull in precip until this thing gets going and consolidates 

please stop with the jumping over the edge posts 1 hour into the event. 

Warnings up for Howard Montgomery Baltimore  and points WSW for 4-8”. 

I think central MD is in a good spot. South enough for high qpf totals, north enough for good ratios. Should help Howard and  Montgomery county get to DC’s totals. 

Dark sky app clearly uses the NAM output lmao. Shows 7-11+ for my current location at work in Columbia.  Nuts!

still think we see 4-8” area wide. 4” north of Baltimore, 6” between Baltimore and dc and 8+ Possible dc and south. 

6z Euro looks good. QPF bump  HRRR /SREF are juicy as well  ICON GFS Euro all agree on approaching warning snowfall, if not exceeding it.

Alright, time for a 12z NAM’ing!

12z nam incoming in the next half hour.... I expect a doozy. If Trends continue, they need to extend warnings up to the Baltimore parallel at least, if not further north 

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Anyone feel this is a storm where NWS may be playing catch up the entire time? 

Yup. Been saying this for days. Watch NW trend at last minute. Models always overdo confluence and push storms flatter and weaker than they should be. Models have been hinting at the confluence weakening and there being ample gulf transport for days now. Why I said never to abandon ship 3.5 days out with the jackpot just to our south. It’s a foolish move and the last 24 hours proves why.  

Wait and see time... but the SREF and HRRR are hefty if anybody looks @ short term models

And I think it may be better than progged by models. Per usual, models didn’t properly pick up precip intensity, lift, or dendrite growth/ratios.

dont see anything that would hinder that happening here. And I don’t remember models having snow that far north either.