jayyy

We look at climo and run with it. Baltimore city will have issues. White rain as they say. Anyone near and north of i 70 and far northern VA should fair well. Precip rates will be there to overcome marginal temps 

Looking at it again...I actually think they only need to add Leesburg and it’s county, and the rest of MoCo and HoCo. Those 3 snowfall maps are nearly identical. 

And lastly... the HRDPS. I seriously think they need to extend WSW SE.

RGEM also on board for Baltimore and NoVa. 

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Not questioning that...I understand the dynamics just saying it's a little warmer right now than expected.  Still a bit of time before onset

 FV3 looks tasty. You’ll approve. 6+ for both you and I 

sign me up. 

7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Its awfully warm out ladies just sayin

It’s 36 here. DP 28. Not terribly warm.... get some precip here and we’re down to 33 easy. We’ll be alright. Some models do hint at rain to start if it’s very light in nature. Well flip the moment we get appreciable returns overhead. 

Newer hi res models continue to be colder / wetter. FV-3 is snowier than the GFS. RGEM and HRDPS are also very snowy. Here is the 500 mb look at 24 hours on the fv3. Not too shabby. A low exiting the NC/VA border and heading NE typically is a great sign. Marginal air or not. 

48 minutes ago, Jebman said:

It is going to be a CharlesTown Wxtrix/ Bob Chill Rockville/Leesburg/HoCo-MoCo/Washington DC DEATHBAND. All of those communities will be severely deformed by heavy snow with this storm.

Hoping for a solid snowfall here in west Ellicott City 

Come on baby, just another 20 miles SE

Come on 6z NAM.... do us a solid. It is nucking futs that while models overall agree on what this storm will do,  there is still a range of 2-9” on various models for Baltimore city. It’s THAT close. 25 miles in either direction means the world for dc and even more so Baltimore. That rain snow line may very well hug I 95 if rates are as intense as the RGEM is advertising. Anybody located JUST west of that line, look out. There is going to be a solid Deform band. I truly hope it is a @Bob Chill , HoCo / MoCo death band. Well need it to get 6+ totals. Ratios will likely only be 6-8:1 in light to moderate snow with temps hovering around freezing 

10 hours ago, Scraff said:

 

How close are you to Sapwood Cellars on 108? 

I live right by the Benson Branch Environmental Area. That being said... I am 10 min from sapwood and like 4 min from manor hill. I live in beer heaven here in Ellicott City my dude. 

12K NAM, RGEM  and GFS all show 4-6+ for Baltimore. Especially just inland NW of 95. They may need to reconsider that advisory. 

Stop hugging rain snow lines. Surface is almost always colder, precip is almost always more jacked than progged  

Too close to the storm to be using the Euro frankly. NAM/GEM/RGEM/GFS blend at the 24 hour mark will do. GEM says 10” in Baltimore. Euro says 2” lol. No wonder LWX has zero clue how to handle the Baltimore area. Going to be a VERY close call for me here in far western Ellicott City along 108

2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

But the rates will also be questionable since the event has been trending drier and flatter.

Exactly. That’s the kicker. We shall see. 

Here we go again. Sun angle mid day snow posts hahaha. If the rates are there, so is the sticking. 

Healthy mediums guys. 3-6” area wide with 6-8” up by PSU. 

Have seen this setup too many times to know we will be 90% snow here in central HoCo along 108.  Expect watches to be expanded SE by this afternoons package. 

5 hours ago, Fozz said:

And the good thing is, hardly any of that is from tonight's system (except ~1" for the far north).

10 IMBY per CMC after showing about 2” earlier. Christ. 

As the low that is affecting NYC area continues to pull away, expect the Sunday system to continue to trend slightly SE. If we can any semblance of a 50/50 out of it, game on. Looking good for far inland areas. Baltimore area still has a shot a significant snow as well. 00z tonight will be very telling. 

Howard county schools stayed opened on a 2 hour delay despite there being about 2.5-3” on the ground here in Ellicott City. Would you look at that? They do have some gall. 

Holy NAM

The coastal won’t help anybody in our latitude. New York City suburbs may be in for a burst of heavy snow however. My parents up in the lower hudson valley could get a surprise few inches 

I almost feel as if models have zero clue what’s coming.... that coastal is a huge wildcard. 

Planning for a 2-4” inch event here in Howard county. Looks like a good bet for most of central Maryland up through the pa line. Dc is likely 1-2”. Montgomery county into NoVa is a wild card IMO... could easily see 1-2 or 2-4” depending on how that band sets up. Back off the ledge from weenie suicide guys....

12k NAM showing coastal development is interesting. Doubt it means much for this storm. BUT.. could change Sunday for the better if it strengthens and turns into a 50/50 of sorts, pushing the Sunday-Mon storm south of us.