jayyy

Kinda pulsing here between maybe mod snow and a flizzard. Gonna need that mod snow consistently to get the grass to cave at these temps.

Interesting. OEC was getting whacked when I drove thru 10 min ago on my way to work, huge flakes

It’s indeed ripping fatties at 37 degrees

Too good not to post. 

… I…. How? I’m not even gonna bother looking at its evolution. That’s insanity under 24 hours out

What the fuck is the euro and gfs smoking

lol it’s kinda funny because they all agree on snow either on or near us

I’m up in New York visiting my dad - he’s unfortunately very sick. I’ve been up here since the big storm cleared out last week. 3” also fell the 2-3 days following the blizzard.

Back home in Maryland WOULD last minute luck into some accumulating snow (in early march) while I’m not there. Book it. The GFS / SREF CONTROL score a coup and someone sees 4”. Prob my backyard. My dad says you’re welcome, weenies.

All jokes aside… hope y’all get one last beautiful look at winter. Enjoy it for me

CMC / GFS seeing something the euro isn’t? Ooooor

How far out is this thing?

I think it’s a half beat too slow lol.

It is

One theme of this winter is things being too slow...hard to bet on faster timing

Idk if slow is the overall theme this winter. More like… late. The progressive nature of the NS in a niña usually makes it so that storms capture / bomb out too far east (or “late”). The NS has had waves flying through it all season

dont be a fool. This is the last one we are tracking this year. Might as well milk it like your at a farm in Lancaster, PA. We dont have rules in March bro

It’s possible in a day or two we won’t have anything to track at all. I get it, but a week out seems excessive. Oh well. Lets see if Ji has any magic

Because it’s like a week out? Get rid of this shit lol

Isn’t this thing like 48 hours out? Fucking GFS

Probably the best consensus at this range all season for at least a measurable event+.

What could go wrong in 7 days?

Ps - I actually like this setup far better for us. Especially for us folks closer to the M/D. Simpler for sure. If this was late January, I’d be honking loudly. I’ll casually watch this until day 3ish. If it’s still there across guidance, I’ll lock in. I can’t do another 7 days of tracking though. I’m getting old

potent snow to rain event on the Euro (it starts at like 24F and goes to 50F, crazy)

Going to take the under on the likelihood we see a 6-8” thump before we jump to 50 degrees in march.

It’s hard not to trust the GFS, given how accurate it’s been this winter.

This week? Or this winter?

Keep in mind though that temps are incredibly marginal in the DC metro and surrounding areas - would be a similar 33-35 and wet snow situation. Just not enough cold air to tap into here

For sure. IMBY sport, of course. I’m not in the metros.

Amounts vary a bit each run, but it has had the same general 2-4” idea for the area since 6z with a very similar snow shield. Would be nice to see something other than the GFS show this though lol

Idk about the rest, but certainly most.  But cold is usually an issue with ninos and in our current state that spells trouble.   

If we can’t get cold enough anymore in any niño regime, our snowfall would cliff-dive over the coming decades. But I also think it’s more complex than that. We just went through a LONG stretch having a +NAO dominated pattern coupled with a VERY hostile -PDO.

We haven’t really had a true test of the “old days” since our last blockbuster season (2015). We have either had no blocking, a terrible PAC (thanks -PDO), etc. The beaches and everywhere north and south of us keep getting smacked, which is how we know it can still snow and snow a lot here. We’ve been insanely unlucky. I know, we’ve snowed in the past during -PDO regimes and +NAO regimes, but we’ve also seen our fair share of shoutouts too. Last year we JUST missed a huge storm. Two more this year. It’s almost like the snow gods are punishing us after the insane luck we had the decade prior to 16-26.

Idk. I’m no meteorologist or climatologist, but I’d bet the house that we have another blockbuster year sooner than later.

00z was trash I assume lol

East based isn’t always great for us. We’d prefer modoki or central basin

Thats what I meant! Hopefully it’s *not* east based. Thanks for the correction sir

We suck at snow these days no matter wether it's a Nino or Nina.
I don't think turning on a Nino is going to automatically fix that lol
 
 

That’s because we oversimplify everything to Niña versus niño. Strength and location matter. As do other factors like the PDO. Idk why some folks think every niño is an auto W and every Niña is a ratter. We’ve had great and horrific winters in both ENSO states. Early indications are that next year will likely be a niño. Hopefully it’s not east based. Otherwise it could be another downer season. Niño is def preferred over Niña historically, but it’s no guarantee

Yeah. I usually goff at this notion… but models probably do need to clear this current massive storm to get a grip. They’re all over the fuckin’ place

Frederick Jack.

That’s how you know it’s highly unlikely lol.

It was... and it did.


.

It wasnt tucked at all lol

I for one believe in the 100 hours of subfreezing temperatures + snowstorm that the Euro shows for our region at the end of the run.. going into the second week of March. That'll happen. 

Just has to hold for 250 more hours til start time