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jayyy

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Posts posted by jayyy

    February Medium/Long Range Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    If a partial phase and a turn up the coast is the fail scenario, them I'm definitely onboard.  Would love to be able to take a complete whiff on the phase off the table as a fail option.  

    6” being the floor at 12z certainly isn’t bad. The past couple of years we all would have literally cried for a 6” storm. Now half the forum is disappointed that every single model doesn’t show 12-24” 4.5 days out lol. Weenies be weenieing
    • Like 2
    • 100% 1

    February Medium/Long Range Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Definite NW drift though, which is weird considering eps has been consistently SE of the OP.

    Not really a huge NW drift. The heavy stuff is still way south of dc. Just a drastic expansion of the heavy snow shield on the NW side of the storm and more evenly distributed.
    • Like 1

    February Medium/Long Range Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Keep losing inches in the off runs though this was not as bad as the 18z last night

    I think most agree that anything under 10 now would be heartbreaking

    The difference between 17 and 20 inches from 0z to 6z 5 days out isn’t really losing anything lol
    • 100% 1

    February Medium/Long Range Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    ae8b1a0dac91da241d03a11b450b39dc.jpg
    22deb1d224876d38fcaaee939e496332.jpg


    .

    A great run for all of us and it seems pretty realistic honestly. Obviously we may end up with less than 17” but I do think it’s most likely an nyc long island and SNE jackpot scenario. The euro progression is a classic for that area. Still, 17” is nothing to sneeze at from here to philly. Love the distribution!

    February Medium/Long Range Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    A lot of possibilities on the table. I'd feel better if we had low pressures at the latitude on both sides, closer, a slower mid-latitude flow, but a block over the top can be enough to buckle the flow under it. GEFS did trend stronger with the Canadian block today.. if it times right, we can do a monster. Still a lot of variation though in what could happen imo. You want to see more ensembles showing a hit. Watching closely. It could be a fun storm! Hopefully it holds. I'm not strongly for or against it right now. 

    Not for nothing… every major ensemble had this past Wednesday as a big hit for us 5+ days out and the OPs said nope. Turned out they were right.

    February Medium/Long Range Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Why? It's close.
    515070583_snku_acc-imp.us_state_de_md(46).thumb.png.d2c7aab985050dde1040fbdd32672686.png

    It’s cool. We’ll just pretend it’s 2008 and that the GFS is of course too flat / late on phasing. Back then you could legit bank on it being 100-200 miles too far SE. Every. Single. Time.

    Go out to
    Fucking
    Sea

    is what some folks called it
    • 100% 1

    February Medium/Long Range Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    This moisture sure is pretty though
    nam_conus_084_sim_radar_1km.gif

    Perfect example. 60-72 hours AFTER this point is plenty of time for the storm in Canada to move out and for the storm out west to get its act together. We have seen large snowstorms follow warmer rainy storms that drop the boundary south numerous times. Skepticism is warranted, especially for a 12+” outcome in a niña… but if the rationale is wave spacing, that’s not it. I do agree about the path to failure if it were to happen - a progressive solution that hits east if timing isn’t just right. We’ll see. If models are still honking come Sunday, it’s very much game on. We DO get lucky in niñas from time to time, and it seems to want to snow this year.

    February Medium/Long Range Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    I'm a bit skeptical of a big one riding on the heals of this.. This is at your -5 AO 
    hrrr_conus_04800_sim_radar_1km.gif
    Don't get me wrong the Pacific turns favorable.. -EPO/+PNA is definitely what we want, but I think a 4-10" event is more likely than 12-20".  I can see something moving more W->E vs S->N. The pattern is actually pretty progressive, it's just a matter of really good timing, having a trough right under the Canadian block on models tonight. They sharpened the trough, but not necessarily the N. Hemisphere fundamentals. I mean it could happen like that, but there's more margin of error imo, and less high potential too without an east-pos-PNA and further SW 50/50 low
    Don't get me wrong, I think there could be a snowstorm. But I'm not buying the MECS just yet. 

    That Saturday wave is riding “on the heels” of a storm that just dropped 8-10” of snow in southern MD on Wednesday. 4 days after Saturday is plenty of separation for another storm to brew and for the necessary pieces to move into place. Yes, it has higher fail risk than a big southern stream gulf low in a niño for instance… but it’s certainly doable. 4 major models all showed how tonight. Betting on 12-20” in a niña is never a safe bet by any means, but it’s also not impossible given the setup. Timing is everything though.
    • Like 1
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