jayyy

RAP is in

5” in Baltimore? Okaaay. Central MD about to reel another one in sub 24 hours?

No 

Sit down grumpy

Welcome to 2 hours ago lol

I’ve been on vacation man!

Watch up in the northern tier

NYC crew has got to be happy.  On SV..looks like a 12+ storm for them

This has nyc area special written all over it. I’ll be at my parents until Wednesday. 12” looking very likely

Rooting for us back home though!

Let’s hope this is the new trend underway. I’ve had good vibes on this one for some reason. I feel like storms this year haven’t showed their hands until 4-5 days out. 

The two storms in January moved in our direction within 48-72 hours. Pretty drastic changes too. For storm 2 most models showed 1-2” for many of us inside 36 hours and then we saw a last minute jack up to 6-7” in some areas in central MD inside 18 hours.

Not out of the realm of possibility this ends up being a few inches if things continue to tick in our direction and we get a bit lucky. Why the hell not? Let’s keep the good luck rolling.

Ways to go but better. Second thread has locked in good trends. Who’s gonna be bold and risk the end of a trusted jinx.

#Phillyspecial

Winter 23-24, the year of the south trend

UMMM hour 138 GFS anyone umm!! Anyone!  

Do tell

It’s a short drive to the poconos. Is it legal to take your kids out of school to chase snow? Asking for an acquaintance.

17” at my parents house in NY? I believe it.

lol far too much weenie nonsense going on right now over A SINGLE 200+ hour OP run. Calm the fuck down y’all. Did we expect the GFS to hold a massive snowstorm for 200+ hours? Ensembles, ensembles, ensembles at this range.

It’ll be back and gone again by tomorrow.

Blend not bad. Suggests snow tv to a coating. Trending!

Same way the blend looked 2 days before MoCo and HoCo saw 6” with that second wave in January

It’s got to be strong but south for it to work in the marginal cold. No breathing room but 2nd run in a row there shortwave tracked just below us

It’s the year of the last minute southern trend. All we need to do is create 3 threads before the storm

lol..it's a Richmond HECS
 

Plenty of time for it to tick on north

You have the -NAO/-EPO/+PNA right, but the strength of those anomalies does not match your analogs. Look at the NAO region, Euro weeklies has a +70dm anomaly, and 2010 was +250dm and 1958 +150dm, kind of a big difference. The PNA and EPO regions are similar though.. I would love that Pacific, but in reality we haven't seen that kind of pattern sustain over a 1-month period for a long time now (since 15-16). 

Not happening since 15-16 is kind of irrelevant as it pertains to whether or not we can sustain a pattern in 2024. You poopoo’d on both of last weeks potentials too and cited all sorts of correlations and +dms, only for it to snow 10+” over a 4 day span in many places. These statistics and correlations only tell us so much. Sometimes those correlations mean something, other times they are mere coincidence.

Obviously we take this one week at a time, but I highly doubt we’re incapable of sustaining a pattern anymore.

Hagerstown was much better, not exactly sure why you moved. Matt would have moved to Hagerstown. 

Could be because the amount of snow he gets isn’t the only determining factor in his life decisions. Just a hunch lol

The skepticism is reeaaaal. Just means it’s comin baby! If we manage even 1-3” out of this it’d be an insane win.

65 degrees up here 2 days before. Would could go wrong

I think his point is the air mass wouldn’t have been that torched in the past during late January, especially when it was very cold a week prior.

I’m from a place that’s much colder and snowier than here, and I can for sure tell you that temps in the 50s and above have without a doubt occurred after deep freezes, even in mid winter. That’s nothing new, ESPECIALLY for our CWA. However, there is a point to be made on the opposite side of that IE: it’s taking longer to get cold once unfavorable patterns break down.

My thought is that it doesn’t take as long this time because cold air is finally on this side of the globe and there’s been cold / snow to our north and up in Canada. Yes, it’ll melt and get warm up there too, but I don’t think we take weeks on end to get cold again. Colder air, while locked away up north, won’t be on the other side of the globe and we will be in mid winter, not early winter. I might be wrong, but that’s my hunch.

Please stop posting garbage in the long range thread. There is a banter thread

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

No offense, but you’re probably the last person that should be telling people where to post their banter / panic room rants. If you’re going to take a shit in every thread, then don’t bash others for trying to be optimistic. Think it’s fair that you either both are allowed to “post garbage” or you both take it elsewhere.

Yeah, definitely make it alot easier to handle. Really rooting for at least a 1-4 inch event before then. To add to your positivity , 2015 was basically snowless until near Valentine's Day. 

Some would tell you 9 years is “84 years…” in the meteorology time continuum.

spotter reports of 5-5.5” in the Columbia to Eldersurg corridor. Right in line with what I measured in EC. Nice little storm. Could get to 6” with a steamer or 2.

Congrats to all.

Solid looking band there

Most reports came between 11am & noon. HoCo - MoCo into Loudon stand up

Incoming Warrenton. Streamer on your doorstep


.

 

Interesting last minute shift versus what this looked like a few days ago. Over 5” down in Maryland

13” on the season. Call me crazy, but feb 14-march 14 we go over climo and then some, topped off by a regionwide HECS. Book it.