jayyy

I would like too see the HRRR-RAP come back south some they are well into PA mostly. I know they suck but they also were too far SE with the last one

If they show the same thing under 3 hours from lead time, I’ll worry.

UKIE looks pretty good. 

Usually a bit drier than higher res models so I’d agree this looks pretty good. Bump precip by 0.1 and it’s a solid 4-6” storm for many. Also, ratios will best 10:1 at the peak from your area to mine to PSUs

My thoughts 

Agree with this for sure. Your 4-8” line runs through my backyard essentially. Thinking 4-6 my area, 4-8” your area., and 2-5” points south toward dc

Looks great!  WB 12Z GFS

#purpled!

Looking good! Time for the sub 24 hour QPF juice up to commence

0Z HRRR slightly drier. But it will be different every run for the next 18 hours. 

Will def. need to take these with a grain of salt for the next 18-20 hrs. It showed 4” in Baltimore with that last storm a day out.

3-6” area wide dc north with 8” lollies from my area over to the cohoctins and of course, 12” at mt PSU

- final call

i know dude--i was trying to be funny

You failed.

Judging by that spelling it sounds like ya started early 

Shoutout to trilogy wellness

36 is too warm. we need 32. Next

36 hours dude. Not 36 degrees.

We’re talking March in the mid Atlantic folks… we’re not going to see weeks of cold and snow. We can (unfortunately) toss the dream of the epic longwave pattern we thought would bring 2 weeks of sustained winter from late feb into early march. But not at all is lost.

If we’re going to hit, it’s likely going to be a super amped wave with good timing / track. Rain to 6” of snow that quickly melts? Certainly possible, even for the lowlands.

I honestly don’t mind march. You know… wavelengths and such. March is typically the northern tiers time for a paste bomb.

Ready for highpy hour…

Of course. Its thirsty Thursday man. 

Atta boy

So far models are trending for the better. 36-42 hours out

The trend of the season… BETTER / WETTER as we get closer.

Wait this storm is legit happening? Haven’t been paying much attention at all. Just got back into town last night. Let’s goooo

so fluffy clouds... JK man you have been on point, if you can get past the shroom inspired moments 

And switching to non avatar snow depth maps from 1985

Looks like about 2-3” at home per spotter reports

10” OTG here in NY. Great storm up this way. Saw a few reports of over a foot east of here

Well when the favorable shift has been 15 days away for the last 20 days…

The only favorable shifts we’re seeing this year are inside 24-36 hours.

I mean in fairness this has been one of the most extreme last minute trends I can remember (especially south).

The mid Atlantic (Maryland / DC area in particular) is seeing their third storm of the year trend in their direction inside of 24 hours. Insane.

Models are struggling inside 12 hours with the storm on our doorstep and people are losing their minds over individual long range runs 1-2+ weeks out?

Gimme a break.

Counting on the HRRR to verify 15 hours out 

While using 10:1 maps is ridiculous given the thermal profile leading in, we discounted the RAP HRRR in January too…. And we saw how that turned out. They sniffed out the southern trend then too.

I definitely see this being more of a northern tier special, but I wouldn’t count out HoCo and MoCo entirely. Definitely possible there’s some 2-3” amounts in those areas away from 95

If only it were 4-5 degrees colder going in… we’d be talking 6+ for many

Is that 3 snowstorms in the last month or so with significant south trends under 24 hours of onset?

Yup

19Z HRRR is dumping it

DUMP IT

Hours to go here too

REEL IT IN WINTERWX / Ravensrule

Even Brooklyn has vanished.

His area is about to get 10-15” tomorrow. He’s probably focusing on that in his area.