jayyy

January 19

Since the other minds are asleep, I can't defer to them, so...hey, if the best global along with two mesos did it, maybe they're seeing something. We shall see!

I mean… she is pretty juicy. Solid precip expansion happening in VA WV and S OH. Certainly much more organized than I expected based what models showed 36-48 hours ago. Most models had .2 of QPF

January 19

Oh my goodness. With the euro spitting out a 5 over Central MD...NAM says hold my beer and spits out THIS jack bubble:

Soooo… do we just ignore these because it’s so close to game time? Euro and NAM both spit out the same thing near Baltimore. NAMs jack is just more expansive. Hrrr was similar too. Interesting to say the least.

… the EE rule says game ON.

January 19

The bottom 6-9” is a pure glacier with 4-5” of snow on top. No chance.

Busting your chops my friend. Zero shot I’d shovel that shit either.

January 19

06z HRRR is unbelievable

Meeeeaning?

January 19

Took a while for the flurries but once the legit light snow started recently, it didn’t take long for the steadier snow to start.

Shovel that deck son

January 19

Euro pretty much nailed the Monday system once we got inside 48 hours. An inch or so low on totals across the board but did very solid with the placement of the heaviest precip. If you take a blend of the Euro, GFS NAM HRRR and RAP, there’s reason to think 3-5 with 6” lollies is also *possible* in the immediate Baltimore suburbs WNW of 95 in a boom scenario

January 19

Could you show new york state?

They probably have it posted in their subforum alongside all of the “it’s never going to snow again” banter. Just a hunch.

January 19

Well hello.

HRRR showed something pretty similar. Has a train of precip across central MD. Baltimore jackpot? It is the euro in the immediate term but def not mad about the euro as depicted.

Would be super interested to see that play out. Gotta think lift and better temps wins out though in this setup.

January 19

Unbelievable that that's even on the table with +NAO as strong as it is. I haven't been saying to PSU that the NAO should be positive for us to see snow, I've said that the Pacific correlating, and in many cases more than evening it out (on both sides of the index), is interesting, and could result in better winter patterns going forward in this state since the NAO has almost as strong of a precip correlation as a temperature correlation here on the EC. (I'm not predicting snow or ice with the 25th storm).

If the correlation is similar for precip and warmer temps, then isn’t warm and wet the likely outcome? 1047 high pressure in southern Canada and it’s raining lol. No thanks.

January 19

Everyone’s asleep so they can be up at 5 am degenerates. My kinda people!

January 19

You need to lay off the Coke and alcohol.

Or he needs more.

January 19

I'm gonna hop in bed with the ukie

Hoco jackpot? Interesting

January 19

We should get 3-4".. Hrr looks pretty impressive, still snowing at 4pm. Interesting to see if they do better than the global models here in the short range.

Euro NAM and GFS all had 2-3”, with 4+” lollipops. Just differ on exact location. Not 1-2”.

I think 2-4” is a solid call for the general area with 1-2” south of dc and 3-4” closer to the MD PA border. Someone will hit 5” (prob PSU)

January 19

GFS runnin

Come ooon baby bump south. 3-5” for all. Feeling it! Could just be the northern lights though.

.

January 19

Oh, I' prepared this time! Fire pit is going strong. Half way through a handle. Cleared snow fro my sleeping spot. Hand warmers in pockets. But here is the game changer. I invested in a sleeping bag after my last blunder:
Details
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V-Block Side Baffles and horizontal baffles keep down in place

Double Interlocking Draft Tubes, down collar ruff seal in heat

Made is the USA with careful attention to quality and detail
Let's F'ing Go!

You didn’t see? Georgetown got its own rain advisory.

January 19

That's a +3SD +NAO on the 18z GEFS hr 168. It connects with the lower part of the measurement in Europe and the US, too. Just impressive.. we haven't had much of that strength since 1997 (0 +analogs for the exact dates, Jan 22-28, since 1997).

Just clarifying that you know a super positive NAO isn’t a good thing, right?

January 19

It's aight.

Not bad. In line with the general 2-4 forecast.

January 19

Have you not been here long? It takes way more than a couple of inches to close DC schools. They are always the last to fall, if they do.

“way more”? So like… 2” more? DCPS literally closed the other day.

January 19

RGEM is juiced up compared to 18Z

Is it really real if you don’t post the resulting clown maps?

January 19

It was 2014. Those years get blended in my mind. So similar.
Check the yellow bands breaking out in KY/OH... I can extrapolate those to our yards.... heh

The Huntington Humbug!

January 19

FV3 comes around to the rest of guidance. 2-4 3-5 event os coming. Look at radar:

One frame later. Precip blossoming and looks juicy in E KY

January 19

I think DC region beats Philly on this one too based on latest model trends

.

Kinda wild considering one of those cities has a warning up for 5-6” and the other has an advisory for 1-3”

January 19

woah

Interestingggg. Too bad it’s the HRRR

January 19

Let’s fucking go.

January 19

BCPS closed tomorrow

HCPS and FCPS as well

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